Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Philly D.]

Newfoundland report in. (I can't post links yet. Just go to the usual site.)

The main change in the orientation of the three rural ridings was well-received -- only minor changes were made. However the name 'Central' remains in 'Bay-d'Espoir--Central--Notre-Dame'.

[Philly D.]

Reports coming in fast and furious. Now for Nova Scotia.

describes it best. South Shore-St.Margarets is BIG now! Central Nova is safer for Peter MacKay.

[Philly D.]

Manitoba's report is now in.

Mainly name changes. One of the names now sounds like a bus circuit.

[Philly D.]

Alberta's report is available. Finally something from an interesting province!

Except in the far north and south, the changes are minor. Medicine Hat extends almost to the border with BC.

[Philly D.]

Less than 24 hours until Parliament reconvenes. Then the New Brunswick, B.C. and Saskatchewan reports will be tabled and become available (Quebec and Ontario are in extension, and I wouldn't be shocked if Ontario missed the second deadline.)

Will we still have Miramichi as a negative exception, next to a near positive exception? The prognosis is not good -- initial proposals tend to be more equal than the reports.

Will B.C. still have a riding crossing the Burrard Inlet?

And of course, will Saskatchewan have urban-only ridings? It seems that the presentations leaned negative. At the very least, a third mixed riding.

[Philly D.]

The Quebec and ontario reports have just been tabled in the HoC. They should be on the redistribution site within the hour.

[Philly D.]

In Quebec the three new ridings seem to be Sainte-Rose/Blainville (Marc-Aurele-Fortin goes), Mirabel and Montarville/LeMoyne (St-Bruno--St-Hubert goes as well). They would have gone comfortably NDP last time. They would also hold Charlevoix-Montmorency, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Honore-Mercier, Chicoutimi and Jonquiere (but not by very much).
However, they do not take anything from the other parties, and NDG-Westmount is now NDP-bomb-proof. The closest seat becomes Levis-Lotbiniere, where Jacques Gourde's majority is slashed to about 554. In addition, they pay in the eastern part of the province. Riviere-du-Loup--Montmagny, while maintained, adds the non-Beauce part of the MRC of Les Etchemins and they lose it to the Conservatives by about 1200. Meanwhile, in Gaspesie, switching the Avignon and Haute-Gaspesie MRC between the two ridings allows the Bloc to win both of them -- in fact without Avignon MRC I think they lost that one. Meanwhile, the Liberals gain Ahuntsic-Cartierville. In sum this is not a great map for the NDP.

[Philly D.]

Just look at the Elections Canada returns in Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere and Gaspesie.