IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Blackacre]

If Messer does get in, this race becomes Tilt or Lean Republican. Donnelly is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He's fairly anonymous, (unlike McCaskill) comes from a clearly Republican state that also has a record of ousting incumbents, (unlike Brown) comes from an average-sized state that is too big for retail politics alone to succeed, (unlike Heitkamp) only won once against a terrible opponent, (unlike Tester) and doesn't appear to be a very talented or a very conservative politician, plus his last elected office was US Rep. (unlike Manchin, who was Governor)

However, Donnelly isn't dead on arrival. He outperformed Obama in 2012 by seven points, he's not gaffe-prone, and his state's voters might take out their anti-incumbent anger on Trump rather than on him if Trump is unpopular enough on election day.

With a mid-tier candidate like Messer being Donnelly's opponent, however, I can say this for sure: this race will be one to watch on election night. Indiana closes its polls very early. An early call in IN-Sen will indicate a big night for whichever party wins that race. If the race isn't called for a while, the entire election night will be a nail-biter. (however, since the race starts out as Tilt/Lean Messer, a long wait could indicate good things for Dems elsewhere)

[Blackacre]

Is this a joke? Donnelly was born and raised in Long Island. He didn't move to Indiana until his college years. Messer is a native Hoosier and lifelong Indiana resident. Also he's Pence's BFF in the House so Pence would be way more fired up to help him as opposed to say, Lil' Marlin or Tennessee Trey.

What matters is how voters in Indiana view him, not we.

Perception is reality, after all

[Blackacre]

Anonymous Senator in a state that favors the other party who only won because his opponent in his first race imploded and who we're told shouldn't be underestimated because he's a moderate and he's likely to face a mediocre opponent. Sounds familiar...

....I don't think I follow. Pryor? Blanche? Um... Begich? Udall? Kirk? Help me out here plz

[Blackacre]

Well, so much for Braun making this a real race.

[Blackacre]

Indiana should seriously consider doing the following:

• Adopt a runoff or IRV system for primaries
• Talk other states into doing the same thing

Especially if Rokita wins by a plurality.

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

[Blackacre]

Suddenly Andrew wants to give rational analysis and consider the bigger picture when a poll shows good news for a Democrat, when we all know if it had Donnelly down 20 he'd be the first one declaring him doomed.

“Donnelly down by 20 in IN-03. This goes against the rising numbers in the GCB for Democrats.”

First of all, his name isn't Andrew.

Secondly, while the IN-03 numbers look good for Donnelly, polling of individual districts can be really imprecise, and this is a secondary question in one poll for one district. It doesn't change my perception of the race as a tossup. If the Senator were that well-positioned, Id like to see it in a statewide poll.

Obviously one individual district poll isn't super reliable. The entire point was that Andrew would not care about these concerns and would treat it as gospel if it showed bad news for Donnelly rather than good news.

You might be right, but we should still keep in mind that, no matter his motives, Limo having concerns about the one IN-03 poll is a good take, and healthy caution is always warranted.  He's not some sinister dude named Andrew, he's a 15 year old kid named redacted who's trying to make sense of an election environment that hasn't happened since he was five.

If he jumps on an indicator as unreliable as this one IN-03 poll for a different race that has different implications, we should just throw his arguments regarding this IN-03 poll back at him.

15? I could of sworn Limo has said he’s in college

Nah, he's in high school.

Back to the topic at hand, Id REALLY like another public poll to take a swing at this race. Maybe Reuters or PPP or WaPo. It's annoying that we're only working with one poll and it's a Gravis.