Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."
So let's not assume Trump's approvals are 55-60. Let's also assume that Warren easily won re-election in 2018. Incumbent Democrats in Massachusetts have an easy time getting elected. So let's say she won by 20%, which would actually be the best performance a Republican had taking on an incumbent Dem in that state since 1994.
Now, we're not assuming Trump's approvals are 55-60, but I'm not going to say what they will be. That's a variable that supercedes all else. If his approvals are 55-60, he'd beat any challenger handily. If they're in the 30s, even HRC would beat him. The only variable we're going to test is Warren, whose favourables are also hard to predict.
Despite all that, I would still say Trump starts out at an advantage against Warren relative to other candidates, because of Warren's weaknesses. The map below reflects this. It is a "neutral" map, so it assumes Trump's approval is roughly equal to Warren's favourables, which is a likely outcome imo because neither are all that well liked among a general populace. Increase one's ratings relative to the other, and things shift more in their direction, though safe states remain safe barring a landslide.
30% = Tilt
40% = Lean
50% = Likely
60% = Safe
219 Trump
216 Warren
103 Tossup
