2020 Senate Predictions

[Blackacre]

Safe D:  These states are guaranteed to vote Democratic.
NM, IL, OR, RI, NJ, DE, MA

Very Likely D: These states will almost certainly vote Democratic; there is a very small but nonzero chance of the Republican winning.
VA

Likely D: These states are probably voting Democratic, but a Republican win is within the realm of possibility.
MN, ME*, CO*, NH

Leans D: The race is competitive, but the Democrat is favored.
MI, AZ*, VP

Tossup: This race is competitive with no clear favorite.
IA, GA, GA-S, NC

Leans R: The race is competitive, but the Republican is favored.
MT, TX, KS

Likely R: These states are probably voting Republican, but a Democratic win is within the realm of possibility.
AL*, AK

Very Likely R: These states will almost certainly vote Republican; there is a very small but nonzero chance of the Democrat winning.
KY, MS, SC

Safe R: These states are guaranteed to vote Republican.
ID, SD, WY, NE, OK, WV, TN, AR, LA

Map Below:



VP refers to the Vice Presidency, aka how I would rank the Presidential election. As a rule, I never have a state go beyond "Likely" if it would be a pickup. Some states have different rankings based on the victors of upcoming primaries. For those states, I assume the primary victors that would bring the state closest to Tossup. Safe ratings are absolute, so even the slightest ambiguity or uncertainty would dislodge a state from a Safe ranking. I am happy to answer any questions about any strange takes here.

The Senate is a tossup right now, mainly due to the Republicans' numbers advantage and how early we are in the cycle. If Biden is still up by ~9 points in October, the Senate map will look very different.