The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden is reportedly "convinced he can beat Trump", but remains uncertain about pulling the trigger:

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2018/09/03/joe-biden-trump-2020/1186921002/

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I wouldn't if I were Biden. He's literally one of the most obvious possibly candidates for a #MeToo scandal to occur during the race.

[NewYorkExpress]

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel not seeking re-election.

https://wgntv.com/2018/09/04/rahm-emanuel-will-not-seek-re-election/

Rahm's not running because he'd be defeated in a primary. What makes anyone think that a run for President would end any differently?

The nerve of some posters

[NewYorkExpress]

I don’t see why Rahm wouldn’t run. He’s got huge resources left in his campaign account and nothing else to do. He’s obviously not going to win but when has that stopped anyone running?

Because if Rahm ran, he's exactly the kind of candidate an extremist on the left would go after as an target for assassination, and you generally don't get secret service protection until you are either the nominee, or very close to becoming the nominee.

[NewYorkExpress]

Speaking of Moulton, he's also considering a primary to Markey.

If Seth Moulton tries to primary Markey then he's delusional to the point I'm genuinely concerned about his mental health.

I think that seat will be an open seat. I don't see Markey running for reelection.

[NewYorkExpress]

Speaking of Moulton, he's also considering a primary to Markey.

If Seth Moulton tries to primary Markey then he's delusional to the point I'm genuinely concerned about his mental health.

I think that seat will be an open seat. I don't see Markey running for reelection.

why's that?

I don't think Markey's a lifer, and he knows full well Massachusetts has a deep bench.

What I think might happen, is that he runs for the open Governors seat instead, and wins that easily, allowing someone else (Joe Kennedy III, Seth Moulton, Ayanna Pressley, Marty Walsh) winning the Senate seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

Boxing star Oscar De La Hoya is "seriously considering" a run for President.

https://www.boxingscene.com/de-la-hoya-very-serious-about-potential-run-president--131698

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard on the Joe Rogan Podcast right now, reaching out to quite an interesting niche:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s

Oscar De La Hoya? Really, Who's next Mike Tyson? Floyd Mayweather?

Oh, and did I mention De La Hoya has duel citizenship with Mexico that he'd have to give up?

[NewYorkExpress]

Boxing star Oscar De La Hoya is "seriously considering" a run for President.

https://www.boxingscene.com/de-la-hoya-very-serious-about-potential-run-president--131698

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard on the Joe Rogan Podcast right now, reaching out to quite an interesting niche:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s

Oscar De La Hoya? Really, Who's next Mike Tyson? Floyd Mayweather?

Oh, and did I mention De La Hoya has duel citizenship with Mexico that he'd have to give up?

I always get Oscar De La Hoya mixed up with Oscar de la Renta:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_de_la_Renta

Umm, how? One's a really talented boxer, the other's a fashion designer who dressed up Jackie Kennedy.

[NewYorkExpress]

Michael Bloomberg set to run for Democrats against Trump for presidency in 2020

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/bloomberg-set-to-run-against-trump-in-2020-qvbfcrswg

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Bloomberg would be better off running as an Independent. He might be the only Independent candidate who could win the Electoral College (if he spent about a billion dollars).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/masondonovannh7/status/1042573557291732997?s=21

Interesting...

any reason he'd go to help other than presidential ambitions? personal connections or anything? Cuz this seems quite out of the blue

He is chair of the DPCC so maybe as part of that job he does go round the country to campaign for D candidates?

Yeah, that makes more sense. Cicilline isn't running...though he wouldn't have made a bad candidate to primary Raimondo this year.

[NewYorkExpress]

This was predictable

https://mobile.twitter.com/Grace_Segers/status/1046135066382995457

Warren needs to be one of the first candidates in to squash any Sanders candidacy.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/02/kander-kansas-city-mayoral-race-862557

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I think this takes Kander out contention for not only 2020, but probably 2024, and maybe beyond as well.

[NewYorkExpress]

What if Gary Johnson will win the senatorial election.
Will Heinrich still be considered a contender for the White House?
Will he still contemplate running for president?

Gary Johnson winning the Senate election as a Libertarian will be the day Hell freezes over.

[NewYorkExpress]

Has anyone said they will make their decision by the end of 2018? We've got a lot of people deciding first quarter 2019.

Biden, Castro, and Holder were all saying for a while that they'd decide by the end of the year, but all three have recently revised that to early 2019.  So no, I don't think there's anyone left who's locked themselves into a 2018 timeline.  I would expect that one or two candidates though will launch exploratory committees in November or December, which is functionally equivalent to declaring your candidacy.  Though exploratory committees have become less common recently, and more candidates these days just rely on their PACs to act as pseudo-exploratory committees.

Well, there's Delaney, who's already announced...

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

I personally think Haley is setting herself up to primary Lindsey Graham in 2020.

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1049674007342133248

I'm a little amused that Haley had to deny this.

If anyone's going to challenge Trump, it'll be Kasich.

I personally think Haley is setting herself up to primary Lindsey Graham in 2020.

Think the following happens:

Trump replaces Sessions with Graham at AG
McMaster appoints Haley to Senate

I wonder if Graham would rather just replace Haley at the UN.

[NewYorkExpress]

Debates emerge as 2020 Democratic primary flash point

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/08/democrats-debates-2020-elections-853029

Interesting to hear they could be starting as early as the spring. If that's the case, it might force some candidates to move up on their timelines.

Candidates like Biden, Sanders and Warren can wait as long as they want with their higher name recognition.

Michelle Obama probably could wait as long as possible too...but she isn't running.