Israel general discussion

[Famous Mortimer]

The name and the mass membership nature of the party means it will always have the potential to bounce back.

[Famous Mortimer]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

I assume you mean a peace party and a socialist party, right?

[Famous Mortimer]

Are there any places where I can look up polling since the last election? Wikipedia doesn't seem to have anything.

Poll by Smith for Reshet Bet Radio, 25 March:
26 [-4] Likud
19 [+8] Yesh Atid
17 [-7] Zionist Union
12 [-1] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [+3] Bayit Yehudi
08 [+2] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [-3] Kulanu
07 [+/-] Shas
07 [+1] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [+1] Meretz

Basically, YA wins ZU + Kulanu voters and strategic Likud voters go back to BY and YB.

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Maybe more logical but it's not politically realistic at all. We're much more likely to see a link up between Meretz/Livni/Labor Right/Various BS centrists. "Human rights" types and socialists have never gotten along. Socialists always hold out hope of winning hawkish working class Sephardim.

[Famous Mortimer]

The split between peaceniks and socialists has been ongoing on the Israeli left for years. It played out in the last 3 Meretz leadership elections and the last 3 Labor leadership elections at least.

Basically socialists, while they may want peace, want socialism more and they are willing to ally with socialist hawks to get it.

Doves, while they may want socialism, want peace more and they ally with technocratic neo-liberal doves to get it.

Each faction is sort of cool with the other but doesn't want them to dictate the nature of campaigning.

[Famous Mortimer]

Just last election, she was mulling over an offer to join Likud outright.

[Famous Mortimer]

Liberman, Bennett, and Kachlon all showing some muscles so the new coalition is delayed. Nothing big will be sorted soon.

MK Micky Zohar (Likud) plans on resigning. Advocate Osnat Hilla Mark wil be sworn in instead. Frankly never even heard her name

Related to Ya'alon's resignation? Or something else?

"Personal reasons" although he's no doubt upset by the switch from Ya'alon to Lieberman, which is a shift to the left on both the Palestinian issue and religious/secular issues, both of which Zohar was firmly to the right of Netanyahu on.

[Famous Mortimer]

Recently had the pleasure of discussing Israeli politics with a staffer at Haaretz who is also the grand daughter of a former Knesset member.

These were her predictions. I'm wondering what the other Israelis think:

1) Shelly becomes leader of the Labor Party again
2) Ashkenazi and Barak start a new centrist party
3) Bibi stays Prime Minister for another decade, his son (who is a closeted gay) tries to replace him after that.

[Famous Mortimer]

How are Likud and Kulanu different on Zionism and other issues?

Both are very Zionist, maybe Kulanu is more pro-Two state solution but Likud cares more about security issues, foreign policy issues etc... then Kulanu. Kulanu's zionism reminds me of Yesh Atid's zionism...bland patriotism, pro-zionist but not on Likud's level.

Kulanu was founded as economic and social issues party. Yoav Galant and Michael Oren are the two foreign policy gurus on the list but, of course, Moshe Kahlon is the party leader and he's famous for lowering rates in the telecom industry.

Kulanu seems more moderate/secular on social issues.

Hypothetically, Kulanu might join a Labor led coalition. HYPOTHETICALLY. That makes them less Zionist. Or less nationalist at least.

[Famous Mortimer]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the hack where I can get Haaretz articles for free?

[Famous Mortimer]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/jerusalem-truck-attack/8168824

This is total crap. I cannot see what the Palestinians could be possibly hoping to achieve.

If anything, it just sets their cause back.

I mean, I agree with you but why are you acting surprised? Are you too young to remember the Second Intafada? Palestinians used to blow up Israeli civilians multiple times a week (not exaggerating) in the early 2000s. They would have undoubtedly kept doing so until this very day if not for Israel building The Wall.

[Famous Mortimer]

Erel Margalit is a terrible candidate. Ultra capitalist and in favor of a grand coalition with Likud. Right-wing on the economy and right-wing on peace. Who does he appeal to? Who would vote for him?

[Famous Mortimer]

Ya'alon's new party has the potential to hurt YA and Kulanu more than Likud.

Yeah, these "brave moderate hero!!!1111" parties almost never do any great harm to the right wing. Though, with that said, without Kulanu Netanyahu wouldn't have enough to form a right wing coalition.

Ya'alon isn't moderate at all. He's to the right of Netanyahu. How could he possibly be talking about an alliance with Yesh Atid?

[Famous Mortimer]

How does picking fights prevent an indictment?

[Famous Mortimer]

The BY primary takes place today. Party leader Naftali Bennett should be safe. Voting started at 2PM at various polling stations across the country and will go on until 10. Results are supposed to come in at about 11, since voting takes place electronically. Turnout is over 25% already. Two candidates are trying to take on Bennett: Rabbi Yitzhak Zagha and Yonatan Branski, the former head of the religious army unit Nahal Haredi; both appear to be to Bennett's right.

Both running on a lets-get-the-JH-to-become-more-religious again platform. I think Bennet feels like they could really stretch him as he's been touring the country for an otherwise boring election.

Labour leadership cadre confirmed:
Current leader Herzog (heading for a humiliating defeat)
Former leader MK Peretz (current front runner, socialist,  and a knob)
Former minister Avi Gabbay (strong contender, centrist)
MK Arel Margalit (running a leftist platform, most qualified as I see it)
MK Bar Lev (bland ex-general)
MG Amiram Levin (bland leftier ex-general)
Prof. Avner Ben Zaken (former Meretz member, mediocre academic and identity politics supporter)
Dina Dayan (orthodox Jew yet a feminist, probably going for name recognition before the next list election)
Hod Krovi (anonymous party member, supporter of the cooperative movement)

Avi Gabbay surprisingly announced he supports Shelly in the workers federation election hoping to lure some of her young "we don't get economics" voters to shift to him from Peretz. Cabel stayed out as well as Shaffir.

Margalit is running as a leftist now? Is that why you see him as the best one? It's weird to see a Meretz supporting saying he is the best candidate, unless you think he's good because he will lead Labor voters to switch to Meretz.

As for Ben Zaken, what does being an identity politics supporter entail in Israel? Hard to be deferential to minorities when your main minority group wishes the country didn't exist.

Also, wasn't there another general running, what happened to him?

[Famous Mortimer]

Is Ben Zaken Sephardic himself? Are most Israeli identity politics advocates Sephardic? In America, while Blacks and Hispanics are increasingly turning to identity politics, self hating White people have really always been the driving force behind it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Any official word on what will happen with Hatnuah? Have their MPs just joined Labor yet?

[Famous Mortimer]

President Zeman is quite pro-Israel. I remember when he was Prime Minister in the 90s he suggested nuking the West Bank.

As far as I know, the parliamentary majority isn't favorable to him. I wonder what the party breakdown of that vote was.

[Famous Mortimer]

zeman is mostly a corrupt, soft-authoritarian drunkard but i am kind of impressed he is pro-israel.

isn't such a common stand between local "right-wingers".

Well culturally at least, he's a man of the left. He mostly just hates Muslims.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weird, 2 Sephardic Jews running against each other in the Labor run-off. This is a bit like if the two main contenders for the GOP nomination were Herman Cain and Ben Carson. Well, probably not that weird, but a little weird.

I wonder if (Ashkenazi) turn out will be hurt as a result. Presumably the Ashkeanzis that do turn out will all support Gabay.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weird.

It seems like Gabbay is getting the more economically left-wing MKs and Peretz is getting the more economically right-wing MKs, which is the exact opposite of what I would have expected based on past information.

Am I reading this right? Or is everyone going to jump on me and say "ECONOMICS ARE A NON-ISSUE IN ISRAEL!" and it's purely a matter of establishment vs. anti-establishment?

[Famous Mortimer]

Has the Nissenkorn vs Yachimovich race happened yet? If not, when?

[Famous Mortimer]

My comments are basically being randomly deleted at this point.

[Famous Mortimer]

http://forward.com/opinion/380384/richard-spencer-might-be-the-worst-person-in-america-but-hes-right-about-is/?attribution=tag-article-listing-1-headline

[Famous Mortimer]

Gilad Erdan: Basically the same as Netanyahu but doesn't even bother to pay lip service to the idea of a Palestinian state in the course of supporting the indefinite continuation of the status quo.

Yuli-Yoel Edelstein: Same

Gideon Saar: Same

Miri Regev: Same

Yisrael Katz: Same but wants to build a giant artificial island in the Mediterranean.

Ze'ev Elkin: Former member of Kadima so he supported a Palestinian state at one point but he definitely doesn't anymore.

Tzachi Hanegbi: Former member of Kadima so he supported a Palestinian state at one point but I don't think he has bothered to be explicit since then.

Avi Dichter: Former member of Kadima so he supported a Palestinian state at one point and I think he may actually still back one hypothetically

Nir Barkat: Don't know for sure but I'm guessing he was pro-Palestinian state in the past but it doesn't matter. He could be anything at this point. Nothing too out of the ordinary though.

Basically no candidate is likely to shift the Overton window much at all. If there was going to be a candidate to do that, to run on a platform of annexation of the West Bank, it would be Tzipi Hotovely.