Israel general discussion

[Famous Mortimer]

We're witnessing a split in world Jewry right before our eyes. It's been a long time coming but it's finally happening. Current official leftism is completely incompatible with Zionism. Half of the Jewish diaspora (a majority of Jews under 35) are going to become uniformly anti-Zionist and leftist. The older, Zionist Jews are going to be forced to embrace the right, reluctantly or not. This meme is historic.

[Famous Mortimer]

According to Haaretz, it seems like there's going to be a compromise in Meretz, giving the primaries to the party members rather than making them open, and Zehava Galon will stay on as leader. Also, the article says Gilon opposes the compromise, but that it's very likely to pass in the coming days.
Hnv, am I right to assume that it's a compromise between the Galon and Zandberg wings, ensuring them a majority against the Gilon people?

Indeed, Zandberg personally wanted to side with Galon but some of her ranks are not so keen on her. It will probably pass (as everyone bar for the trots supports the compromise). I actually see no difference between this and the so called open primaries.

Leadership elections will be held in late March and I hope Galon gives Gilon a proper spanking in the general membership (though I do think this should be her last tenure)

Why would she prefer Zandberg over Gilon? Zandberg seems much closer to her. In fact, what even are the differences between Zandberg and Galon?

[Famous Mortimer]

Would there ever be any chance of the Joint List propping up a leftist/non-Likud government?

I mean, I assume they are complete untouchables for any formal coalition, but would support from outside the government be a possibility? In which case a non-Likud coalition could govern with less than 60 MKs?

I know there are a few crazies in the Arab parties, but Odeh seems like a pretty reasonable guy.

It's unthinkable until it becomes a possibility and it happens. I will say that it's significantly more likely if Hadash MPs alone could put the government over 61.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who do Ethiopian Jews vote for?

Mostly Likud.

[Famous Mortimer]

A poll about whether there should be government that regulates the economy or free market economy without government regulation.

overall 56% support government regulation to 36% free market (8% no opinion), by supporters of each party:
Likud: 59-34-7
Zionist Union: 60-37-3
Yesh Atid: 43-43-13
Kulanu: 43-52-4
Jewish Home: 68-24-8
Haredi parties: 48-41-10
Yisrael Beitenu: 45-50-5
Meretz: 65-27-8

For some they don't list the Joint List, but they do mention that Arabs were 62 for government regulation. Women were more supportive of government regulation than men and there was no correlation with income.

What's the source for this? I really want to show someone the original article.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is Gilon more hawkish/less of a peacenik than the other candidates? I remember that has been the way with more socialist candidates for Meretz leadership in the past.

[Famous Mortimer]

So Galon is basically like the Meretz equivalent to Hillary Clinton, and Gilon is more like Bernie Sanders?

Yes. Absolutely.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bernie Sanders lived in Israel, he would be in Likud.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bernie Sanders lived in Israel, he would be in Likud.

...That is quite clearly wrong.

I'm joking. I'm making fun of the idea that you can't compare Sanders to Gilon because Israel is more to the economically to the left.

There's a very clear parallel between them even if they don't match up EXACTLY.

When the Sanders campaign was going on, people used to despute the idea that you could compare Sanders to Melenchon or Corbyn because they were further to the left (which is true but pedantic).

[Famous Mortimer]

Zehava Galon just dropped out of the Meretz leadership race.
I guess I'm endorsing Zandberg, but the chances I'm voting for Meretz in the election have just grown significantly lower.

@Vosem: This is an interesting post. Indeed, a more religious society doesn't mean one more friendly to the Haredim- we saw, for example, in the last mayoral race in the City of Beit Shemesh, that it was basically a proxy war between the Haredi population that invaded the city and claimed it as its own (represented by the incumbent, Mr. "There Are No Gays In Beit Shemesh") and a kippa-wearing candidate supported by both secular and religious voters who aren't Haredim- aka Datiim). The incumbent won, but in any case, we saw all stripes of Israeli society uniting against the Haredim. On the question of the draft, it makes sense that you'll see more support than, say, for public transportation in Shabbat- after all, the religious group ("religious zionism") are frevently pro-IDF. My points weren't backed by any statistics- I guess I'm just an optimist, but I believe that, with their powerful leaders dying off, the Haredi sect ultimately cannot survive in the modern world, kinda like primitive tribes in Brazil. There's simply no way to keep such a huge population enslaved to strict rules and restrictions on technology, sexuality and, for about a half of this population (women), their very independence as human beings, without that bubble bursting in the end.

EDIT: Looks like Ilan Gilon dropped out too?! All hail Queen Zandberg, I guess, but I have no idea what's happening and what deal they wrought.

EDIT2: Gilon dropped out because of health reasons. His voice seemed a bit slurred in the announcement video, but he didn't say the specific reason. I guess he felt free to drop out after he saw Zehava did.

A really interesting thing I found in the Pew data, which Pew didn't really talk about, was how on pretty much every religious issue the difference between old and young is smaller than the difference between old and young on self-identification. Israelis under 30 are 8% less Hiloni than Israelis over 50, but on no specific public policy issue are they more than 4% more religious (which tracks with Haredi going from 8% to 12% of society), and there are some where there's no difference or younger Israelis even take the less religious position (attitudes towards Haredim are the only ones that show the reverse pattern, but there's basically no generational difference on attitudes towards modern technology and women's rights). So it seems pretty reasonable to conclude that groups like Datiim/Masortim are slowly getting less observant (particularly on things like use of modern technology and women's rights) even as they become a larger part of society at the expense of Hilonim.

Which backs up my basic point that Jewish rituals, or affirmations of Judaism, are becoming more universal (there was something in there about younger self-identified Hilonim being more likely to light Shabbat candles than older Hilonim, for instance) without society's values really changing, which suggests that the non-Haredi parts of Israeli society are all slowly converging with each other.

Similar trends in the US where American youth are less likely to identify as atheist but more atheistic than any generation in the past. This is mostly due to a stigma that atheism is associated with anti-Muslim bigotry. I don't know if it's similar in Israel. Maybe atheism is associated with anti-Ultra Orthodox bigotry? Are Israeli youth more pro or anti-Ultra Orthodox?

[Famous Mortimer]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

I voted for Gabbay in the second round, yes, but I regret it. And maybe Margalit's attack against Gabbay did hurt him- it shouldn't have, because it caught Gabbay lying. And yes, I agree that the kibinimat videos were stupid. As for Labour... I agree that the future seems bleak, but they're still the party with the best slate of candidates overall, in my opinion. Maybe Shaffir is an option, I don't know. We'll see.

Shaffir (like a lot of Labor youth) is a crypto-one stater. I don't think she would help the party in the polls but even if she did though, a Prime Minister Shaffir would be the last Prime Minister of Israel.

[Famous Mortimer]

This isn't like some conservative in 1984 saying "If Mondale wins, the will be a Red Flag over the White House!" No, that's obviously ridiculous. The United States is a stable country that's existed for 200 years.

Israel, however, has existed for less than a century, its sovereignty is disputed, it has a quasi-indigenous population which wish it did not exist.

If Israel elects anyone to the left of Ariel Sharon, anyone who wants to compromise with global opinion, Israel will cease to exist, because the global opinion is that Israel shouldn't exist.

That's why Israeli votes don't give a damn about Netanyahu being corrupt. They would rather have a corrupt Prime Minister than have their country cease to exist.

[Famous Mortimer]

Netanyahu getting indicted will in no way cause middle Israel to suddenly turn to the left. The left can't "win"/form a government as long as they don't have a credible argument regarding the peace process and the security situation, with which they can win over middle Israel. Most people want a 2SS (the "Lieberman plan" with landswaps is probably the best and most popular one) but don't trust the Palestinian Authority not to turn the West Bank into a second Gaza and therefore prefer the status-quo, which Likud offers, over (perceived) uncertainty. Just like left-wingers are the best ones to implement budget cuts, right-wingers are the best ones to broker a peace deal. But as one-staters become more dominant on the right, it is doubtful whether a 2SS will ever happen. Only a dramatic change in the status-quo can alter the current trajectory.

What Labour needs to do is to show middle Israel that they are committed to Zionism, which means purging "post-Zionist" (BtS, Peace Now, the whole NGO world) elements from Labour. Let them go to Meretz. Make sure the "on whose side are you?" question is not on people's minds anymore. Meanwhile, credibly advocate for lasting peace and security in a 2SS from a Zionist perspective, provide an unashamedly Social Democratic alternative to Likud's agenda of economic inequality and oligarchy, and be committed to upholding freedom of and from religion. Become a party that credibly aims to unite Jewish Israelis from different backgrounds instead of ignoring all Jews outside the Tel Aviv metro.

That sounds sensible on paper, but it simply doesn't seem to work. I mean, Gabbay is trying exactly that, and the polls are making it clear that it's having a negative effect (though, admittedly, his gaffes about religion probably contributed to that). Netanyahu has, for years, effectively branded the left as illegitimate traitors who must be purged. He's a vicious politician, ready to trample over everyone and everything to keep his power, and so far it worked for him, at least politically if not personally. That's why he needs to go- a corrupt despot is definitely not what Israel needs. Without him, I agree that the Israeli population won't suddenly turn left, but who knows what'll happen? A new leader for Likud might not be able to keep the magic going. In my view, Bibi desperately needs to go, even if just to clean up and make our political system healthy again.

As much as I hate to admit it, I don't think moving to the left or right on economics will make much of a difference for Labor. As much as things like the housing crisis may effect left-wing voters, it's clear that their main motivation for voting left is cultural. Economic populism may benefit blue collar people in Israel but those voters are already firmed committed to the right. Very similar to the situation in the United States.

[Famous Mortimer]

I agree that this was a PR disaster and done very incompetently by the Netanyahu government (like pretty much everything else). However, I'd argue that in substance this is a good deal for Israel- whether it's a good deal for other countries is another question, but I wouldn't fault my government for signing such a good deal. Forced deportations are not just terrible optics, but also very inhumane, and I wouldn't want to see them happening in my country, so this is in my opinion the only way to solve this problem. I'd also argue that landmass matters- these migrants have basically ruined the lives of Southern Tel Aviv residents, and it's a big problem. I don't know Norway enough, but I think they have the space to spread them enough so that it doesn't disrupt people's lives. If not, well, countries like Canada exist. Generally, it is my opinion that Canada and the U.S. are by far the most superior countries to take immigration, making me left-wing in regards to U.S. immigration matters and at the very least center-right in regards to European immigration.
But that's besides the point. I don't think that Israel should make decisions based on what a few right-wingers in Europe think (or for that matter, left-wingers too), it should make decision based on what's good for its citizens. I also believe that your friend's argument is pretty weak, because, indeed, it's much easier to strike a deal for a small number of immigrants than strike a deal that changes the location of a 'a much bigger number'.

Norway has the space? That's ridiculous. Land mass is irrelevant when talking about immigration. It's not like these immigrants are going to be settled on previously non-residential farm land. These immigrants, like 99% of immigrants to Europe, are going to be given housing in the centers of major cities, where most native born citizens could not themselves afford to live.

[Famous Mortimer]

And we'll believe you when diaspora Jews stop being targeted by "anti-zionists" because Israel.

I don't see how diaspora Jews being targeted proves anti-Zionist are anti-Semites if the diaspora Jews in question are loudly Zionist (as many including yourself are).

If anti-Zionist Jewish organizations were being targeted by anti-Zionist groups, now THAT would be evidence that their problem was with Jews in general but that's not a widespread trend.

Now, I'm not saying anti-Zionism is a good take in opinion, merely that doesn't suggest a categorical hatred of Jews. I myself support Zionism both because of my Jewish roots and my favorability towards nationalism in general. I think anti-Zionism is dumb but I don't think it's anti-Jewish.

Jews who claim anti-Zionism is inherently anti-Semitic make themselves look either disingenuous or hysterical or both.

You're never going to convince people that being pro-Israel is the liberal, enlightened, anti-racist stance to take. Because it's simply not true.

If you support Israel, you support Israel because you like nationalism and you don't want your cultural homeland to be demographically swamped by a different ethnic group. Just own it, it's a fine and defensible position.

[Famous Mortimer]

You believe in borders and controlling who can cross them. So you are already viewed as a racist by all liberal non-Jews. If you think otherwise, you are delusional.

[Famous Mortimer]

You believe in borders and controlling who can cross them. So you are already viewed as a racist by all liberal non-Jews. If you think otherwise, you are delusional.

Except Israel is not trying to ban immigration its trying to stop an invasion

The difference is purely semantic. I'm sure Palestinians would be more than happy to immigrate to Israel, get citizenship, and then vote the country out of existence through completely peaceful, democratic, internationally sanctioned means if they were allowed to do so.

[Famous Mortimer]

You believe in borders and controlling who can cross them. So you are already viewed as a racist by all liberal non-Jews. If you think otherwise, you are delusional.

Except Israel is not trying to ban immigration its trying to stop an invasion

The difference is purely semantic. I'm sure Palestinians would be more than happy to immigrate to Israel, get citizenship, and then vote the country out of existence through completely peaceful, democratic, internationally sanctioned means if they were allowed to do so.

Except the vast majority of immigrants are law biding people and are loyal to the US .

Would you be okay with immigrants to the United States having to pledge their loyalty to the idea of the United States as a country for people of European descent? I suspect not.

That's basically what people have to do to be considered loyal to Israel.

You're going to say "but Israel is different! Israel for Jews and the US is for everyone!"

Yes, you're right, Israel is different and it is primarily for the Jews. That's why it is fundamentally against the current liberal world order to back Israel.

[Famous Mortimer]

I normally don't post here because I don't want it to lead to flame wars as I am of Palestinian and have a Pro-Palestine origin, but Famous Mortimer needs to stop generalizing us. A large % of us would rather just have the conflict end peacefully, when conflict results (example the current Land Day protests), it infuriates people on both sides (I am not immune from this either as I had a bad outburst recently), and I think my people are not doing a great job pushing for peace either.

But the ad hominem and inane comments being thrown around here aren't productive for conversation either.

1) It's impossible to talk about politics without making generalizations. Let's be adults. When I or anyone else says "the Palestinians [blank]" or "the Israelis [blank]" or even "the Americans [blank]" OBVIOUSLY we're not saying "every single Palestinian"/"every single Israeli"/"every single American". So when you chime in with "well not every single person" you don't make yourself look smart, you make yourself look like a pedant who doesn't understand how normal people talk. People should be sophisticated enough to discuss politics without having to preface every sentence with "obviously not every single member of this group believes this". It should just go without saying. Again, if you're not intellectually sophisticated enough to handle that, you aren't intellectually sophisticated enough to talk about politics at all.

2) That said, the only generalization I made about Palestinians in this thread was that they would happily pursue a one state solution through peaceful democratic means if given the opportunity. So I don't know why you're criticizing me for claiming that all Palestinians are violent, since I didn't say that, I literally said the opposite. I assume you are just criticizing me because it's what people on this board automatically do when they don't have actual points to make.

[Famous Mortimer]

The historical fact is that minorities always get discriminated against.

Not true - Al-Andalus for example.

Non-Muslims in Muslim Spain were de jure second class citizens, more discriminated against than modern Israeli Arabs.

If you want an example of a minority that's not discriminated against: Modern Japanese people in  present day America.

[Famous Mortimer]

(the law says you need 1/3 of a party to split, meaning they’ll need more defectors).

What does this mean? Can they quit, join the party and keep the seats? I know these splits were widespread earlier in Israel's history when the parties were often incredibly general and undifferentiated by policy.

If less than 1/3 of the MKs leave the party, they lose their Knesset seats and get replaced by the next people on their old party's list.

Yes, this isn't how it used to be. They passed a law in the last decade to prevent the constant party switching/fracturing.