Mali 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Profiles of the main candidates:

Dramane Dembélé (Alliance for Democracy in Mali): Relatively young, unknown candidate of the country's largest, best organized political party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali (ADEMA). ADEMA ruled the country in the 90s. Their platform is vaguely social democratic/neo-liberal. They came in second in 2002 and backed ATT in 2007. Their original candidate for this election was parliamentary speaker Dioncounda Traoré, who became the current acting president and agreed not to run as part of a peace deal.

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (Rally for Mali): PM during the 90s for the Alliance for Democracy in Mali (ADEMA) party. Formed his own party after ADEMA passed him over for presidential nomination. Came in third in 2002 and then backed ATT in parliament. Later switched to the opposition after ATT hooked up with ADEMA. He came in second in 2007.

Soumaila Cissé (Union for the Republic and Democracy): Finance Minister from the 90s. The ADEMA presidential candidate in 2002. Founded his own party when they wouldn't nominate him again.

Modibo Sidibé (Independent): PM under ATT from 2007 to 2011. ATT loyalist.

Cheick Modibo Diarra (Rally for Development in Mali): Former NASA engineer and head of Microsoft Africa. Was appointed PM after the most recent coup. The military apparently assumed he would be malleable as he's a technocrat with with no strong party behind him. They ended up having to oust him though after he encouraged the African Union to send troops to Northern Mai. The coup leaders opposed this because they are dumb.

Other candidates:

Haïdara Aïchata Cissé (Independent): The only woman running. Labor union official. Member of parliament for a part of Northern Mali recently under rebel control. No chance of winning but she's the type of candidate who would get fawning media coverage in the West if the Western media ever covered Malian politics in any detail.

Niankoro Yeah Samaké (Independent): Mayor of Ouéléssébougou. Notable for being Mormon and raising lots of money from Mormons in the United States. He has no chance because he's Mormon. Mormon.

Tiébilé Dramé (Independent): Former Foreign Minister under ATT's transitional military government in the early 90s. Came in 4th place in the 2002 election. Negotiated half assed peace treaty with northern rebels.

Soumana Sacko (Independent): PM under ATT's transitional military government in the early 90s. Ran for president in 1997 but withdrew as part of opposition boycott.

[Famous Mortimer]

Today.

BBC ran an article saying Modibo Sidibé, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, Cheick Modibo Diarra, and Soumaila Cissé were the main candidates.

Leaving out the ADEMA candidate seems a little odd.

Don't know what they're basing that on.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came in first. Soumaila Cissé came in second. We're just waiting to see if there will be a run-off or not.

The media is saying that IBK was backed by the military. I wonder why they didn't report that before the election though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Well, not necessarily.

They officially conceded power more than a year ago. They still exist behind the scenes, like I said, they removed a Prime Minister even though they don't actually have any legal authority.

Maybe they were recede even further into the shadows now, maybe they won't.

[Famous Mortimer]

Run-off between IBK and Cisse.

[Famous Mortimer]

Full results from Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malian_presidential_election,_2013

IBK (former ADEMA PM and founder of the Rally for Mali party) 39%
Soumaïla Cissé (former ADEMA finance minister and presidential nominee) 19%
Dramane Dembélé (ADEMA) 10%
Modibo Sidibé (PM under ATT) 5%
Housseini Amion Guindo (MP, former member of IBK's Rally for Mali, owner of a local football club) 5%
Oumar Mariko (left-wing MP who supported the coup) 2%
Choguel Kokalla Maiga (Candidate of the Patriotic Movement for Renewal, the re-named Democratic Union of the Malian People, which was the sole legal party under dictator Moussa Traoré. Also a Minister under ATT) 2%
Cheick Modibo Diarra (Former PM appointed and then removed by the coup leaders, was supposed to be a major candidate) 2%
Jamille Bittar (I know nothing) 2%
Mountaga Tall (MP, perennial candidate) 2%
Moussa Mara (Mayor of Bamako) 1.5%
Mamadou Bakary Sangare (Candidate of the Social Democratic Convention, ran in the last 2 elections and did about the same) 1%
Soumana Sacko (PM under ATT in the 90s) less than 1%
Oumar Ibrahim Touré (Former Agriculture Minister under ATT) less than 1%
Haïdara Aïchata Cissé (lady candidate) less than 1%
Hamed Sow (I know nothing) less than 1%
Yeah Samake (Mormon mayor) less than 1%
...
10 other candidates I don't know anything about
...
Tiebilé Drame (Former ATT Foreign Minister) dead last with only 5000 votes. He came in third in the last election but this time dropped out and called for a boycott.

[Famous Mortimer]

Apparently Cheick Modibo Diarra (again, that's the PM appointed and removed by the coup leaders, who worked for NASA and headed Microsoft Africa) is the son-in-law of former military dictator Moussa Traoré.

I thought I read Traoré had another son running too but maybe I was wrong. If I'm not, it's probably Ousmane Ben Traoré, who has the same last name, it's a common last name though (obviously, it's the current acting president's last name too)

[Famous Mortimer]

The 2002 run-off between ATT and Cisse is the only other map I've seen.

That too was a stark divide between ATT in the south and Cisse in the north.

[Famous Mortimer]

More endorsements for IBK from Moussa Mara, Racine Seydou Thiam, Ousmane Ben Fana Traoré, Sibiry Coumare, Siaka Diarra, Alhousseini Maïga, and Choguel Kokalla Maïga.

http://www.journaldumali.com/article.php?aid=6828

[Famous Mortimer]

Somewhat surprising, Cheick Modibo Diarra has endorsed IBK. Surprising because it puts him on the same side as the military and because IBK is the more economically left-wing candidate.

Cisse did pick up the endorsement of Tiébilé Drame, the former foreign minister who boycotted the first round. Still, Cisse only has 3 endorsements from first round candidates so far. IBK has 21.

Also it looks like IBK is the national unity candidate and Cisse is the extreme levels of autonomy for peace candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is Bittar?

[Famous Mortimer]

Run-off today.

Also, another rebel leader came out in support of IBK:

""I am supporting IBK because he has said that he will put together a national dialogue before making a decision on the crisis, while Soumaila Cisse has already declared that he will not give autonomy to northern Mali," said NMLA official Mohamed Ousmane Ag Medoune."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/08/10/mali-vote-keita.html?cmp=rss

I think these rebel leaders supporting IBK are just stupid though. IBK opposed ATT's peace deal with the rebels, he's from the south and has little northern support, and he has the backing of the coup leaders who are obviously anti-autonomy.

Cisse might have said he was against autonomy but if he did, it's pretty transparently him trying to appeal to swing voters. His core supporters know where he really stands.

[Famous Mortimer]

IBK won't be sworn in until September 18th. That's quite a long way a way considering I know a lot of African countries swear people in as soon as the results are official.

I wonder who he'll pick as PM.

[Famous Mortimer]

Technocrat PM named Oumar Tatam Ly.

Former Arab (not Tuareg) rebel leader as Foreign Minister.