Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor is probably going to get a bump from leadership elections which Blue and White will not get. I think Blue and White and Labor will probably get the same amount of votes as last time but it will be more evenly split between the two.

[Famous Mortimer]

Has it been confirmed Blue and White won't get funding and if so, why would that happen?

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Lieberman literally leads a party for ex-Soviets, so his status as an ex-Soviet is relevant, it's not something he hides. Obviously ex-Soviets have interests which are different from Israelis at large, otherwise they wouldn't have their own political party. Same goes for other minorities: Arabs, ultra-Orthodox, etc.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hey, new elections mean Orly Levy can be on the Likud or Blue and White list now, right?

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

You don't really know anything about Labour people. In any case, as someone who actually has contact with the general public, Shmuli would be likelier to turn people off because of his socialist reputation.

And there is literally no reason to call her "a crypto-One stater". No one in Labour, and no one relevant in Meretz, even comes close to these views. You probably heard something about her once and now you obviously know all about her hidden opinions, but as someone who actually knows her, this is laughable. That is not to say that a union with Meretz won't be necessary.

Might it be that you yourself are biased? That you are so radical, you dismiss even other radicals as insufficiently radical? I see such behavior all the time on the American left, people who attack Chapo Trap House and Jacobin magazine as "Strasserites" and "Nazbols", many such cases.

[Famous Mortimer]

What happened to National Union? Does Tkuma control National Union's assets?

[Famous Mortimer]

Aren't Meretz more of a party that advocates the strengthening and emancipation of Arabs and Palestinian identity within an Israeli (thus somewhat Jewish, although obviously secular) state context? Whereas the two others actively question the existence or necessity of a Jewish state and would favour one state solution? Or have policies changed?

sorry if this is phrased stupidly.

Meretz is a Zionist party and the Arab parties are not. That may seem like a massive gap, but in reality the difference in policy goals of each is negligible because who knows what it even means to be Zionist anymore.

Well if Zionism = Jewish self-determination then I think two state solution is the more obvious choice no? Whereas the one state solution just means a state where Jews can live and feel secure with their identity in but not have seperate political institutions as a Jewish demos (inevitably you probably trend towards a Lebanon-style compromise...but then one could argue the current Israeli state is also heavily fractionised).

Those on the right who are pushing for a rapid expansion of the settlement enterprise in the West Bank in a way that makes a one state inevitable are doing so under the guise of Zionism ("Jews have a natural right of settlement in their historic homeland"). That's now a mainstream position on the to right and those who suggest evacuating settlements to create two states are widely considered anti-Zionistic.

The truth is that the right, left, and Arab public in Israel already realizes that there is going to be one state, even though nobody likes to talk about that openly and publicly because it's so volatile. That one state will either be Jewish or it will be democratic. The debate in Israel today is ostensibly over what that state will look like. When it comes to that question there is no daylight between Meretz and Hadash-Taal.

I wonder why Parrot guy didn't jump out to scream "No! No! No! You are stupid! No one in Israel thinks there is going to be one state ever! It's impossible! No one thinks this! I personally know every Israeli leftists and they are all super Zionists and would rather die than consider one state!"

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the deal with Tal Russo? Why was he always expected to resign? Why did he run for Knesset in the first place?

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What is a joint leadership campaign? Why does it require changing rules?

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I thought United Right broke up?

[Famous Mortimer]

Labour updates:
* Former Mossad head Dani Yatom sent a SMS to voters that he's planning on running. I doubt he has a silver of a chance.
* Amir Peretz continues flip flopping on the issue of a primary, and is now pivoting to support an open primary for leader AND list, allegedly as part of an alliance with former MK Eitan Cabel.
* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left. He's also negotiating with Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli to cooperate with Labour. Could this mean Shaffir is down in the internal polls and these two are the frontrunners? Maybe, I hope not.

In Meretz: MK Ilan Gilon officially endorsed former MK Nitsan Horovits, making it clear that he's part of that camp.

So I remember Meretz used to be divided between a socialist wing that was dovish but not super dovish (represented by GIlon) and a neo-liberal wing that was super dovish (represented by GAlon). I'm seeing news stories saying that Horowitz is backed by the "red faction" which I would assume is the socialist GIlon faction but I also see news stories saying he's backed by former leader GAlon. So is it fair to say that the two wings that used to fight for control of the party have put their differences behind them and are now united against the Zandberg wing?

Also, what does the Zandberg wing stand for? I assume it's both socialist AND super dovish?

Is the unity between GIlon and GAlon factions just opportunistic? I would have thought GAlon had more in common with Zandberg than with GIlon.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labour updates:
* Former Mossad head Dani Yatom sent a SMS to voters that he's planning on running. I doubt he has a silver of a chance.
* Amir Peretz continues flip flopping on the issue of a primary, and is now pivoting to support an open primary for leader AND list, allegedly as part of an alliance with former MK Eitan Cabel.
* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left. He's also negotiating with Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli to cooperate with Labour. Could this mean Shaffir is down in the internal polls and these two are the frontrunners? Maybe, I hope not.

In Meretz: MK Ilan Gilon officially endorsed former MK Nitsan Horovits, making it clear that he's part of that camp.

So I remember Meretz used to be divided between a socialist wing that was dovish but not super dovish (represented by GIlon) and a neo-liberal wing that was super dovish (represented by GAlon). I'm seeing news stories saying that Horowitz is backed by the "red faction" which I would assume is the socialist GIlon faction but I also see news stories saying he's backed by former leader GAlon. So is it fair to say that the two wings that used to fight for control of the party have put their differences behind them and are now united against the Zandberg wing?

Also, what does the Zandberg wing stand for? I assume it's both socialist AND super dovish?

Is the unity between GIlon and GAlon factions just opportunistic? I would have thought GAlon had more in common with Zandberg than with GIlon.

Complicated. part of the old Galon camp supports Horowitz because they like the commies want to join Labour, the other part (Freg and Raz) support Zandberg for different reasons.

I wouldn't say the Zandberg "wing" stands for anything distinctively, it has a myriad of people. Zandberg herself is socialist (but in a more global way to Gilon old socialism) but also supports green politics and feminist radicalism.

This is less of an argument about ideology. it's more about personal feud and which way the party should go: merge with Labour, or a united Arab-Jewish front. 

Does Zandberg want an Arab-Jewish front?

[Famous Mortimer]

So her plan is to like have an equal number of Arab and Jewish members but not to merge with Hadash-Ta'al?

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

I'm an economically left-wing nationalist myself so I would love it if Israel adopted that ideology but I don't think they will. Labor actually tried to this twice under Peretz and Yacimovich and both times the results were underwhelming.

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

Wasnt shas in the 90's basically the choice for Left-wing populism and a nationalistic security policy and one of the reasons why they did so even well among the poor (non-haredi) mizrahim?
I could imagine many mizrahim voting for this kind of party, one that rejects the (perceived) ashkenazi liberalism of B&W and Labor both on economic and security issues.
There must be massive untapped potential for the left among poor mizrahim who currently vote for the likud, a party that goes completely against their economic interest.

Shas only became hawkish in the last 20 years. In the 90s, Shas was mostly agnostic on the peace issue, that's why they were able to sit in both Labor and Likud and national unity governments. Today the idea of Shas propping up a Labor government, while not completely ridiculous, is very unlikely. Like fug, forget not being hawkish, Shas wasn't even officially Zionist until like 10 years ago.

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

And how do you even make economic and social justice a massive election issue without also taking a meaningful steps to end the injustice (to both Israelis and Palestinians) of the occupation? To separate those requires Orwellian cognitive dissonance and we already have more than enough of that in our politics. Americans have a quaint notion of today's Zionism as this kind of underdog heroism of persecuted Jews making a way for themselves in a regional oasis of democracy and tolerance. No, actually, Zionism today is the border police evacuating Arab apartment buildings in East Jerusalem so that rich and utterly unpersecuted American settlers can move in and live in new government-subsidized Jewish housing. If Meretz of all people can't find the sense to stand against that then the Jewish left isn't just a phantom but is actually a dangerous and willing tool for the right.

It's pretty easy to support the occupation but also give more welfare to Israeli citizens. You may not think it's morally right but it's perfectly easy to envision.

[Famous Mortimer]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 Yifat Biton*

[Famous Mortimer]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 Yifat Biton*

No, Orly Levy's

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 is Yifat Shaha-Biton, currently Housing and Construction Minister. Yifat Biton is a law professor and feminist activist who was Orly Levy's number 3.

both parties have a person with the same name in the same list position lol

[Famous Mortimer]

real action was on the streets today...

No one cares, this is not the US, it will die by Sunday.

What do you think the difference is between the US and Israel that causes this difference in reaction?

[Famous Mortimer]

Barak named his party the Israel Democratic Party. Is this officially a reference to the American Democratic Party? I know the Democratic Party in Italy and the Democratic Movement in France both intentionally chose their names as a reference. It's always funny how foreigners have a positive view of the Democratic Party since everyone in America hates it including most of its supporters.

[Famous Mortimer]

So the Barak-Epstein connection got called out by Netanyahu's son, then it got reported in Haaretz. Is this going to make him withdraw?

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Wow i always knew Israeli politics were crazy, but i didnt know that Rafi Peretz is now Prime Minister.

Lmao why did I write Prime Minister?? I was probably too much in a state of shock

Also i really dont want to go down this rabbit hole again, but if you think that this is anywhere near the worst Human Rights Violation under Netanyahu, worth a massive bold script unlike, you know, those Guys in Gaza, then i have a bridge to sell you.

Yes it's better not to go down that hole, because the Gaza situation is way more complex than this and if you read Israeli Supreme Court decision on the matter it'd help you understand that.

Conversion therapy has been denounced by global health organizations, the Israel Medical Association and the Israeli Psychiatrist Union. It's a clear cut case.

When did these groups denounce conservation therapy? I'm guessing in the last 30 years. The fact that so many psychologists changed their views on homosexuality so rapidly and radically suggests that it is not actually clear cut case at all, what it suggests is that psychologists are extremely susceptible to public opinion.

[Famous Mortimer]

It will like never happened since Israel hates muslims and would kill every single one of us if they could do so without retribution, but like at this point I'd be fine with the west bank and gaza being incorporated into Israel and them being citizens. The numbers would be sufficient to bring Israel back to sanity like when Rabin was in power (seriously how did such a bad nation elect such a good man? Oh wait I remember they killed him after they did not like him.) Then finally Israel could be an ff nation for good like they were in the short time Rabin was in power.

Hahahahhah. This is so dumb.

I'm not saying that because you're anti-Zionist either.

There are plenty of smart anti-Zionists who can intelligently articulate why there should be a one state solution.

The fact that you say Israel is evil but you like Rabin shows you have never studied the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in depth. There is no way an anti-Zionist One Stare who thinks Israel is evil could ever have a positive opinion of Rabin if they knew his record.

This is the equivalent of the type of person who calls migrant detention centers under Trump "concentration camps" but loves Obama even though he ran the same camps.

[Famous Mortimer]

It will like never happened since Israel hates muslims and would kill every single one of us if they could do so without retribution, but like at this point I'd be fine with the west bank and gaza being incorporated into Israel and them being citizens. The numbers would be sufficient to bring Israel back to sanity like when Rabin was in power (seriously how did such a bad nation elect such a good man? Oh wait I remember they killed him after they did not like him.) Then finally Israel could be an ff nation for good like they were in the short time Rabin was in power.

beyond you edgy edgelord opinions, what is this glorification of the Rabin era. I lived through it and remember it quite well, Israeli society was in many aspects worst than it is and Rabin was far far far far from a good progressive leader.

It's much more profitable campaigning against conversion therapy, indeed.  And it's great if there exists consensus on equal marriage or LGTB rights. The Palestinian question is like the elephant in the room. I guess many people In Israel would like to ignore its existence, even though that's impossible.

No one's ignoring it, its just not a though experiment in a political science course in Amherst.
Most Israelis are aware of the human rights infringement and even a lot of those on the right would say that they are bad per se, but most would call them a necessary evil considering the facts of an on going national conflict.
Take me, I'm a one-stater to a degree, have very little to no sympathy for Zionism, but I'm aware that just ending military control tomorrow will be the catalyst for unbelievable bloodshed. I can't see a good solution atm, or a good solution which is also viable, any shift from the current benchmark would entail a lot of bloodshed.
Now lefties in America\Europe of course don't care, justice for them as no consideration for actual facts of strife on the way to utopian justice. But as that bloodshed may include my blood, or a lot of Palestinian blood I'm naturally wary.

Jewish racism towards Arabs in really a small part of the story here, it's not what's keeping the conflict from being solved.

Eh, I think Jewish racism towards Arabs is a HUGE part of the story, and frankly a huge part of the amputated monster that limps around today calling itself "Zionism." But I also agree that it is only a part of the story.

I wouldn’t say that. I want to make clear that I think it’s the Netanyahu government (and like governments before him)  and their enablers that let his ilk run the country that are the horrible people that have made the country a bad place (it used to be decent at certain points), and some people who vote for Netanyahu and his ilk are still good people but with that one flaw, I don’t see this as an issue to point the finger at a good religion and most of its people at all.

It's ridiculous to think that Netanyahu is evil but that Israel was "decent at certain points". These two ideas are incompatible. On the issues that make him evil in your eyes, Netanyahu is not fundamentally different from any previous Israeli leader or any likely future Israel leader. You either like nationalist garrison states (and think Netanyahu is fine as a normal leader of one) or you don't (and think all their leaders have always been inherently bad).