Likely 2016 House Pickups for Democrats?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

MI-07? I live there. Tim Walberg is a third-rate political hack in a district that should be tailor-made for a Gerald Ford but that now has a Republican representative better suited for the Texas Panhandle than for south-central Michigan.

Tim Walberg simply does what Koch fronts tell him to do. It is only a matter of time.

I would generally agree with Walberg description, but he was able to win legislative seat for 16 years, and 4 out of 6 races for Congress (losing once in primary, where votes were heavily split, and 1 in general in extremely good Democratic year). So, either he is not so dumb, or - district is really conservative enough....

Walberg is really not an impressive politician, more of a lucky one. He barely survived 2006 before loosing to Mark Schauer in 2008, then the 2010 wave swept him back in. In 2012 he got a decent 55-45 win over his opponent, which looks impressive until you find out that Walberg's opponent was a nobody 9/11 truther who had no funding from the Democratic Party. And then in 2014, another wave saves him in a close 53-41 race.

This year, however, he faces Gretchen Driskell, a very good challenger. She's experienced with tough races, can fundraise, and has somewhat of a "rising star" quality to her. IIRC, Sabato, Cook, and Rothenberg all have MI-07 rated as a Toss-Up this year.



Other races I would consider "sleeper" races that might become really competitive are UT-04; where Doug Owens seems likely to rematch Mia Love, CA-21; where former State Sen. Michael Rubio may be exploring a bid against David Valadao, and CA-25; which I predict Hillary will carry in 2016.

Source for the bolded part?

http://www.sltrib.com/home/1913878-155/a-love-owens-rematch-democrat-says-it

Not entirely sure where the news about Valadao was.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

1. IA-1 - Blum was a fluke. He's also a loan shark who is too conservative for his district. Expect him out.

2. NV-4 - Kihuen is a very strong candidate who puts this in Lean D territory. Flores... not so much, but even with her, this race is a toss-up.

3. TX-23 - Gallego is a very strong candidate in this Hispanic district that most likely suffered from turnout issues. I'm confident.

4. MI-1 - Benishek was fairly underwhelming, just went back on his pledge to serve three terms, and might have a rematch with his 2014 opponent. I think he goes under too.

5. NH-1 - Guinta is not a liberal Republican by any means of the imagination. He used to be one of the most conservative members of the House, and still has a corruption investigation from that $355,000 loan. He's also far too socially conservative for the district (not even making an exception for life of the mother), and is in a district that has an incredibly high turnover rate.

6. FL-23 - If you beat Joe Garcia by such an underwhelming margin, you've got some red flags regardless of your incumbency.

7. NY-24 - Honestly, I think Katko's a strong enough candidate, but the tide might be too strong to overcome.

----- (Rs have the advantage here)

8. IL-10 - See NY-24, but more pronounced

9. IA-3 - Once you look at the actual campaign David Young ran, you realize that he ran a sh*t campaign and most likely rode the perfect storm into Congress. He's probably vulnerable - just depends on who runs against him.

10. AZ-2 - Torn between this and CO-6, but I think this district is a touch more Democratic downballot than its PVI says.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

...I'm sorry, did you just say Guinta is a liberal Republican? Or a moderate?

Are you on drugs?

Same with Curbelo.  The guy called Social security a ponzi scheme for god's sake.

Guinta is literally to the right of Todd Akin on abortion.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

Because Shea-Porter is pretty liberal too. Innis would have an easier time holding this seat down than Guinta - he seems more moderate, and probably would have beaten Shea-Porter by 2010 margins.

(also living in Guinta's district)

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.   
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.

Because Shea-Porter is pretty liberal too. Innis would have an easier time holding this seat down than Guinta - he seems more moderate, and probably would have beaten Shea-Porter by 2010 margins. Never mind that you're trying to debate two people who have been actually represented by both of them - one of who has been for the past nine years of his life.

Plus he refused to say whether or not he wanted to ban condoms

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Well, IL-13 won't be a Dem pickup: David Gill, the perennial Democrat running for this seat, is thinking of running as an Independent..

Was it ever going to be?