FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Interested, looks to be running)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)

-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz
-Former Senator George LeMiuex
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)

Like I said before, I expect DeSantis to win a DeSantis/CLC/Miller primary. And if Grayson does get in, he's irrelevant.

[publicunofficial]

lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

Same could be said of DeSantis.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera
-Rep. Jeff Miller
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. David Jolly (Leaning towards run)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)

-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz
-Former Senator George LeMiuex
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Alan Grayson
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith

[publicunofficial]

What wings are the different GOPHers catering to? Which one is getting the Club for Growth, which is getting K street etc. etc.

DeSantis = Tea Party, FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, ect.
Lopez-Cantera = Establishment
Miller = SoCons, Hawks

All 3 are also getting regional support.

[publicunofficial]

The new map makes room for a potential comeback by my old boss in FL-22 against Deutch. This is good news. Too bad I'm in Tally and can't see it.

Ran into the RPOF's head guy in the office. Said that the new 22 is winnable in the right circumstances but not worth the time and effort in 2016. Also learned some interesting things about Andrew Gillum....

Besides the possibility of him running against Brown in FL-05?

Graham, should she go for it, might have the upper hand in a Brown/Gillum/Graham primary

[publicunofficial]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sometimes, you're alright Charlie Crist.

[publicunofficial]

lol



Part of me is really going to miss Harry Reid.

[publicunofficial]

With Carlos Beruff positioning himself to be Florida's Donald Trump, I fully expect him to jump to first place in the next primary poll.

[publicunofficial]

For the record; I compiled a list of presidential year Senate races over the past 30 years where A) The seat was open and B) The winning candidate was the opposite party of the Presidential nominee that carried that state.


2012:
Joe Donnelly (Indiana)
Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota)

2008:
None

2004:
Ken Salazar (Colorado)

2000:
Ben Nelson (Nebraska)
Bill Nelson (Florida)

1996:
Max Cleland (Georgia)
Susan Collins (Maine)
Tim Hutchinson (Arkansas)
Gordon Smith (Oregon)

1992:
Kent Conrad (North Dakota)
Byron Dorgan (North Dakota)
Judd Gregg (New Hampshire)

1988:
Slade Gorton (Washington)
Chuck Robb (Virginia)

1984:
Al Gore (Tennessee)
John Kerry (Massachusetts)
Jay Rockefeller (West Virginia)

1980:
Alan Dixon (Illinois)
Chris Dodd (Connecticut)

As you can see, it's fairy rare and might be getting rarer. Should Donald Trump lose Florida (And I think most people here believe he will), we will likely be looking at Sen. Patrick Murphy (Assuming he wins his primary). Of course, Donald Trump is not the typical Republican and many GOP candidates this year will successfully distance themselves from him, but that will be much harder to do for an open seat than an incumbent like Pat Toomey or Rob Portman.

Of course, if Trump DOES win Florida, a Murphy win is unlikely.

[publicunofficial]

Rubio facing pressure to jump back in from colleagues, donors, party officials but he's still saying no & that CLC is likely gonna win his endorsement.

The fact that party insiders don't seem especially enthused about any of the GOP candidates chances is certainly indicative of something.

[publicunofficial]

Donald J. Trump ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump
Poll data shows that @marcorubio does by far the best in holding onto his Senate seat in Florida. Important to keep the MAJORITY. Run Marco!
9:09 PM - 26 May 2016

Will this get Rubio in the race?

I like to think Rubio was considering entering the race, saw this tweet, and then called the NRSC and told them to go f**k themselves.

[publicunofficial]

I don't care about his approval ratings right now. Rubio would by far be the best Republican candidate against Murphy or Grayson.

Stating the obvious as if it's a controversial opinion.

David Jolly is a weirdo who has stopped taking donations and has a bad relationship with his own party. CLC is electable, but has terrible fundraising and zero enthusiasm behind him. DeSantis is probably the frontrunner right now, but the fact that the NRSC seems to be panicking and trying to get Rubio into the race shows they're not really confident about his chances in the general. Beruff would make the Senate race Lean D. Wilcox is a nobody.

If Rubio endorses CLC, DeSantis is basically out of this race thankfully.

I think you greatly overstate Rubio's influence.

[publicunofficial]

Somewhere, Patrick Murphy is smirking.

[publicunofficial]

Jolly says all signs are pointing to him running again

All signs except Rubio showing a willingness to enter.

Jolly might be talking out of his ass. Should Rubio enter, Jolly could back out of his embarrassing Senate run and run for his House seat instead (Where he would be the only person to make it a race against Crist).

[publicunofficial]

Rubio is hosting a Carlos Lopez-Cantera fundraiser. The date? June 24th.

[publicunofficial]

Isn't the House seat Crist is running for a safe D seat? Why would Jolly volunteer to be slaughtered there?

Obama '12 carried it 54.6-43.9. That might seem like a lot, but Curbelo's district, which is considered to be competitive, is Obama '12 55.4-43.9. So while Crist would probably be a favorite given that he carried Pinellas County, which is where the district is, as a republican, as a democrat, and as an independent, it wouldn't be completely hopeless.

Curbello's seat has a lot of Cuban-Americans who are willing to vote R for congress. Pinellas Co. doesn't.

Jolly vs. Crist is Lean D at worst.

[publicunofficial]

"The massacre in Orlando has reminded Marco Rubio of his dedication to civic service, and so he will return to the Senate to sponsor more anti-gay and pro-gun legislation"

[publicunofficial]

I'm sure Jolly repeatedly saying "MARCO IS IN, HE'S RUNNING" while Rubio's camp says he's still undecided is pissing off everyone behind close doors.

I bet when Greg Walden has to start triaging House races 3-4 months from now, Jolly is one of the first incumbents to get screwed.

[publicunofficial]

So, with Jolly out and possibility of Rubio not getting into the race, who is the frontrunner? Lopez-Cantera, DeSantis or Beruff?

Don't know if Jolly's support goes to DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera, or if they split it equally. But Beruff was leading in the last non-Rubio polls we saw.

[publicunofficial]

I don't care about his approval ratings right now. Rubio would by far be the best Republican candidate against Murphy or Grayson.

Stop trying to make Rubio happen. Rubio is not happening.

Careful not to choke on your own d**k.

Also Sanchez was also saying that Rubio is a paper tiger, which is still correct.

[publicunofficial]

TN Volunteer, please quit posting about Florida politics until you manage to sit outside one of the top Florida politicos office for eight months. Then you'll know what is going on.

Fix'd

No wait.

TN Volunteer, please quit posting about Florida politics until you manage to sit outside one of the top Florida politicos office for eight months. Then you'll know what is going on.

That's better.

[publicunofficial]

Even as a Democratic hack, I'll admit that Murphy story is bad. Really bad. Not SAFE R bad, but bad.

That being said, it's survivable. This is the kind of revelation that can sink a bad candidate (John Walsh 2014) or not be a big deal at all in the end (Blumenthal 2010, which I'd argue was worse). If Murphy is the political wunderkind some of us believe he is, he'll be able to navigate his way around this.

That being said, if this hits as bad as it can hit, this is probably a Lean R race. And if Gwen Graham suddenly comes into the race 2 days before the filing deadline, I wouldn't complain.

A bit of a tangent, but will DeSantis be in any trouble for dropping down to run for re-election?

Most of the field dropped out for him, either entirely or moving to the open FL-04 race. Alex Mooney, Brandon Patty, and David Santiago are all out. Only Fred Costello remains.

I was hoping Dems would contest this seat with or without DeSantis, as it moved heavily to the left in redistricting. Obama even won it in '08 by a slim margin.

[publicunofficial]

Even as a Democratic hack, I'll admit that Murphy story is bad. Really bad. Not SAFE R bad, but bad.

That being said, it's survivable. This is the kind of revelation that can sink a bad candidate (John Walsh 2014) or not be a big deal at all in the end (Blumenthal 2010, which I'd argue was worse). If Murphy is the political wunderkind some of us believe he is, he'll be able to navigate his way around this.

That being said, if this hits as bad as it can hit, this is probably a Lean R race. And if Gwen Graham suddenly comes into the race 2 days before the filing deadline, I wouldn't complain.

A bit of a tangent, but will DeSantis be in any trouble for dropping down to run for re-election?

Most of the field dropped out for him, either entirely or moving to the open FL-04 race. Alex Mooney, Brandon Patty, and David Santiago are all out. Only Fred Costello remains.

I was hoping Dems would contest this seat with or without DeSantis, as it moved heavily to the left in redistricting. Obama even won it in '08 by a slim margin.

Pat Mooney, not Alex (his brother from WV-02). What's the new PVI for FL-06? The old one was R+8. And it should be noted that DeSantis defeated Costello in the GOP primary in 2012, and as an incumbent, he should do so again. Maybe he can run for the other seat in 2018. Also, I remember Walsh's plagiarism (he would have lost to Daines anyway, I think), but what was the deal with Blumenthal (not to get too off track, just curious)?

Blumenthal was accused of exaggerating his military service during the 2010 campaign. Specifically, saying he had served "In Vietnam" where in reality he was just in the military at the time of Vietnam. It hurt his polling for a while, but in the end it blew over.

And FL-06 is now an R+5 district.

[publicunofficial]

Anyone who is in any way associated with Bernie Sanders is a socialist. If you at any point supported him, you're a socialist. Anyone he supported at any time is also a socialist. Anyone related to him is a socialist, and anyone related to anyone who he supported or anyone who supported him is also a socialist. Red scare FTW!

Judging from his commentary on any "Socialist"'s primary, I'd say Wulfric is literally terrified of socialism. Like, a legit phobia that causes irrational behavior and thought.

[publicunofficial]

There is no reason that a non-socialist would support a socialist for their party's nomination.

What about "I don't like Hillary Clinton"? Is that not a legit reason?