Likely 2016 House Pickups for Democrats?

[publicunofficial]

I'm not calling any race where Democrats haven't found a candidate yet a "automatic pick-up".  They're notably having recruitment issues for the New York seats like NY-24, NY-01, NY-21, and NY-19.

Right now I'm guessing that IA-01, NV-04, TX-23, FL-26, and possibly MI-07 flip for Democrats, while Republicans take the open FL-18 and knock off Ashford in NE-02.

[publicunofficial]

MI-07? I live there. Tim Walberg is a third-rate political hack in a district that should be tailor-made for a Gerald Ford but that now has a Republican representative better suited for the Texas Panhandle than for south-central Michigan.

Tim Walberg simply does what Koch fronts tell him to do. It is only a matter of time.

I would generally agree with Walberg description, but he was able to win legislative seat for 16 years, and 4 out of 6 races for Congress (losing once in primary, where votes were heavily split, and 1 in general in extremely good Democratic year). So, either he is not so dumb, or - district is really conservative enough....

Walberg is really not an impressive politician, more of a lucky one. He barely survived 2006 before loosing to Mark Schauer in 2008, then the 2010 wave swept him back in. In 2012 he got a decent 55-45 win over his opponent, which looks impressive until you find out that Walberg's opponent was a nobody 9/11 truther who had no funding from the Democratic Party. And then in 2014, another wave saves him in a close 53-41 race.

This year, however, he faces Gretchen Driskell, a very good challenger. She's experienced with tough races, can fundraise, and has somewhat of a "rising star" quality to her. IIRC, Sabato, Cook, and Rothenberg all have MI-07 rated as a Toss-Up this year.



Other races I would consider "sleeper" races that might become really competitive are UT-04; where Doug Owens seems likely to rematch Mia Love, CA-21; where former State Sen. Michael Rubio may be exploring a bid against David Valadao, and CA-25; which I predict Hillary will carry in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

MI-07? I live there. Tim Walberg is a third-rate political hack in a district that should be tailor-made for a Gerald Ford but that now has a Republican representative better suited for the Texas Panhandle than for south-central Michigan.

Tim Walberg simply does what Koch fronts tell him to do. It is only a matter of time.

I would generally agree with Walberg description, but he was able to win legislative seat for 16 years, and 4 out of 6 races for Congress (losing once in primary, where votes were heavily split, and 1 in general in extremely good Democratic year). So, either he is not so dumb, or - district is really conservative enough....

Walberg is really not an impressive politician, more of a lucky one. He barely survived 2006 before loosing to Mark Schauer in 2008, then the 2010 wave swept him back in. In 2012 he got a decent 55-45 win over his opponent, which looks impressive until you find out that Walberg's opponent was a nobody 9/11 truther who had no funding from the Democratic Party. And then in 2014, another wave saves him in a close 53-41 race.

This year, however, he faces Gretchen Driskell, a very good challenger. She's experienced with tough races, can fundraise, and has somewhat of a "rising star" quality to her. IIRC, Sabato, Cook, and Rothenberg all have MI-07 rated as a Toss-Up this year.



Other races I would consider "sleeper" races that might become really competitive are UT-04; where Doug Owens seems likely to rematch Mia Love, CA-21; where former State Sen. Michael Rubio may be exploring a bid against David Valadao, and CA-25; which I predict Hillary will carry in 2016.

Source for the bolded part?

http://www.sltrib.com/home/1913878-155/a-love-owens-rematch-democrat-says-it

Not entirely sure where the news about Valadao was.

According to The Nooner and other sources, there are rumors that Rubio will run in 2016. Rubio has opened a committee with the FEC, but hasn't raised any money.

Rubio currently works as a lobbyist for Chevron, a job he took so he could spend more time caring for his disabled newborn daughter.