Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[jaichind]

When does the polls close?  It is 6:44Pm already.  Will there be exit polls.  Based on what I know my understanding is that H+FrP+KrF+V will exceed their 2001 results and this will be the largest right wing majority in modern Norway election history.

[jaichind]

NRK exit polls

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

[jaichind]

NTB exit poll

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

(seems to be same as NRK)

[jaichind]

With these exit poll results I think the H+FrP+KrF+V vote share should be slightly below 54%, which will exceed their 2001 vote share of 52.1% which was the largest right-wing vote share in modern Norway elections.

[jaichind]

These exit polls has 93 for center-right opposition and 75 for center-left goverment.  I assume the last seat goes to Red Party?

[jaichind]

TV2 exit polls just has  93 for center-right and 74 for center-left.

[jaichind]

Interesting.  All the English language news media seems to say (example Bloomberg)  "The Conservative Party and its partners the Progress Party, the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats, are set to win 94 seats of the 169 in parliament, according to the average of exit polls by state broadcaster NRK, NTB and TV2. Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s Labor-led three-party coalition won 74 seats, the polls showed after voting closed at 9 p.m. local time."

Which refered to them as exit polls.  If they are just results without Oslo then that is something very different.

[jaichind]

Ah.  I see it.  DPA "Oslo (DPA) -- Norway's ruling red-green coalition will lose its parliamentary majority, according to projections based on partial results, issued just after polling stations closed Monday.
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Labour Party and its two junior partners were set to get 76 seats, compared to the 86 they had in the outgoing 169-seat legislature.
The opposition bloc led by Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative Party, was projected to win 93 seats. Her potential coalition partners include the right-wing populist Progress Party, the Liberals and Christian Democrats.
Statistics Norway's projection was based on about 16 per cent of the vote, but did not include tallies from the capital, Oslo."

So the exit polls are based on, but not equal to,  16% of the vote which does not include Oslo.  I assume these projections takes into account some sort of relationship between the votes coming in so far and what that might imply about Oslo's vote.

[jaichind]

The results are based on a count of 24.9 percent of the votes released so far today. The participation level was 72.8 percent, subject to change.

                           Count        2009 Election
-------------------------------------------------------
Government and supporters
Labor Party                 30.0%             35.4%
Socialist Left Party         3.9%              6.2%
Center Party                 5.9%              6.2%
-------------------------------------------------------
Opposition alliance
Conservatives               26.8%             17.2%
Christian Democrats        5.9%              5.5%
Liberal Party                  4.6%              3.9%
Progress Party              16.9%             22.9%
-------------------------------------------------------

[jaichind]

It seems that center-right opposition is over-performing exit poll and more in line with pre-election polls.

[jaichind]

Well, given where FrP were back in 2011 these results would be quite good.  I suspect their support will fall off once they are in government and not be able to absorb anti-establishment votes.