Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

It seems the 6 ex-JIP MPs that quit JIP but did not join ORA will from a grouping called 改革結集の会 which translates into Association of Reform Grouping.  I will end up calling them ARG since there does not seem to be an official English name for this group.  Yet another Center-Right opposition splinter group in addition to AEJ, PFG, TCJ (Tax Cuts Japan), and NRP (New Renaissance Party.)  I am pretty sure this camp will go nowhere as well just like the others.

Only way out is for all these parties to merge into larger Rightest opposition bloc.  Of course this bloc will be fighting with ORA for the same bloc of votes.  

[jaichind]

I figured it is time to update my projections for the 2016 Upper House elections based on the JIP-ORA split.   My model has both JIP and ORA hurt from their civil war and split with some of the original JIP vote going to LDP and DPJ.  ORA will attract AEJ and PFG which makes both parties non-entities.  I also make the optimistic (for DPJ) assumption that they will pull off tactical alliances with JIP and JCP in competitive single member districts.  I also assume that DPJ and NPD make a deal where NPD run for the second Hokkaido seat and NPD backs DPJ in the PR vote.  ORA I assume will run in all Kinki districts but mostly nowhere else.  KP will lose a bit of support from its dovish base due to its support of security bills.  
 

                                               My Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ NPD    (Tactical JIP-JCP support for DPJ-NPD defeats LDP-KP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance for PLP for a PLP lock in victory)
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4              LDP KP DPJ JCP    (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take JCP one)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP DPJ  (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take DPJ one)
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPJ       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ JCP                
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
滋賀   Shiga                1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ as ORA split LDP
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP    (DPJ-JIP might back JCP to beat back ORA for second seat)
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance might take a KP seat)      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)    
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ    (ORA might run here but with JIP backing DPJ, DPJ wins)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)        
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP    (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance backing OSMP defeats LDP-ORA)      

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       31.5%          16               39                       55
KP         13.5%            7                7                        14
DPJ        23.0%          11              18                       29
SDP        2.5%             1                0                         1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                         2
JIP          4.0%             2                0                         2
ORA        8.0%             4                2                         6
FPG        0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       13.0%             6                4                       10
AEJ         0.75%          0                 0                        0
NPD                                               1                        1
OSMP                                             1                        1

If this is what takes place which is relatively optimistic for DPJ we then add the seats up for reelection in 2019 we have

            2016         2019            Total
LDP        55            65                120
KP          14            11                  25
DPJ        29             17                 46
SDP         1               2                   3
PLP          2              1                   3
JIP           2              1                   3
ORA         6              5                 11
PFG         0              3                    3
JCP        10              8                  18
AEJ          0              4                   4
NPD         1              0                   1
NPR         0              1                   1
OSMP       1              1                   2
Ind          0              3                   3

Independents are all hawkish ex-YP or ex-PFG MPs.  If we group the post 2016 election results MPs by hawks and doves we have Hawks at 167 and Doves at 75 which is 69%-31%.  As long as Abe can get AEJ-PFG-hawkish independents, KP, and ORA all in one broad alliance, he will get the 2/3 majority for Constitutional change even if DPJ manages to pull off a bunch of tactical alliances.  Only way this can be avoided is if somehow turnout surges in 2016 elections where latent DPJ voters come out to vote against LDP-KP.  Right now this does not seem likely.

[jaichind]

週刊現代 (Shūkan Gendai) came out with its projections of 2016 double election.  It makes the assumption that DPJ infighting will prevent a viable alliance with JIP nor JCP.  It also assumes that the double election will stretch the resources of the opposition parities.  The result they project is a tidal wave  victory for LDP-KP.

It projects the Total Upper House seat distribution after 2016 Upper House elections

LDP   127
KP       26
DPJ     42
JIP        5
JCP     13
ORA    10
AEJ       3
SDP      2
PLP       3
PFG      3
Others  1
Indep.   7





It also projects Lower House totals in a double elections to be

LDP       323
KP          34
DPJ        49
JIP         18
JCP        20
ORA       20
SDP         2
PLP          2
Others     7

If these were the results then Abe for sure will have the mandate to change the Constitution.   How the referendum goes after that will depend on the nature of the Constitutional change and how Abe sells it.

[jaichind]

DPJ, JIP, SDP, and JCP have agreed that in 2016 Upper House single district seat  of 熊本(Kumamoto) which is a LDP stronghold, they will jointly back the DPJ candidate as the JCP withdrew its candidate.  The extreme left SDP splinter NSP will also join this alliance.   Had this alliance been formed when the seat is a open seat and a less pro-LDP environment it might have a chance to win.  But with a popular LDP incumbent running this alliance will just make the race a bit closer but will not have any real chance of winning.  A similar alliance in more marginal seats could have a much bigger impact.

[jaichind]

A bit late, but a funny picture from the Osaka mayor/governor elections where LDP DPJ and JCP had a joint rally.  The joint rally featured leaders from all 3 parties and the picture labeled them according to party.  自民 for LDP, 民主 for DPJ, and 共産 for JCP.



This is part of the failed Osaka everyone gang up on Hashimoto.

[jaichind]

Fuji Daily came out with their own projections of a double election result.  It is also a large LDP-KP landslide although some of their numbers make no sense in their Lower House projections.

They have for Upper House

LDP            69
KP              10
DPJ            17
JIP               4
JCP            10
ORA             5
SDP             1
PLP              1
FPG             1
AEJ             1
NPR            1
Other          1

This seems possible if JIP LDP and JCP fail to form tactical alliances AND a swing toward LDP-KP from 2014.

They have for Lower House

             FPTP     PR          Total
LDP        235      72          307
KP             9       26           35
DPJ          29      35            64
JIP            5       13            18
ORA          3       10            13
JCP           4        22           26
SDP          0         2              2
PLP           1         0             1
Others      9         0              9

This seems to imply that LDP-KP vote share to be a bit higher than 50% on the PR which would even beat their 2013 performance which I guess in theory is possible.  What does not make sense is how JCP can win 4 FPTP seats.  That is only possible of JCP has some tactical alliances with DPJ-JIP.  But if that is the case then DPJ and JIP would not do so poorly on the FPTP section.  Also it is pretty much impossible for SDP to win 2 PR seats. 

[jaichind]

PFG Upper House MP 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) has left PFG to be an independent indicating that he might join ORA.  Of course he being up for re-election in 2016 and having no prospect of being re-elected on the FPG slate is a key factor.  I guess he is hoping to get on the ORA PR list.   PFG now has only 4 MPs and below the threshold to form a caucus which in turn means it will lose government funding.  PFG is pretty much finished as is.  It could perhaps merge with AEJ or the new JIP splinter ARG or perhaps with ORA itself.

Also, Former PFG MP 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) who quit PFG back in the summer when it was obvious he could not win the PFG leadership contest is looking to form yet another Right wing party.  It seems he might be perhaps trying to create this new party by merging ARG into it.  I guess it is also possible if 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) does not get a good deal from ORA he might join this outfit.

[jaichind]

In addition to redistricting already made for Upper House there are now plans on the table for redistricting for Lower House.  The goal is to get the vote disparity between the largest and smallest district to below 2:1 as stipulated by the Supreme court.  The idea is to increase the number of seats in prefectures that gained population, especially Tokyo which will go from 25 to 28 while reducing the number of seats in areas the mostly rural prefectures.  Okinawa for some reason is going down from 4 to 3 even though they have been gaining population.  Overall the number of FPTP seats will go down from 295 to 289.  For PR section they are also reducing the over number of PR seats from 180 to 176 with Tokyo area gaining 1 and 5 other sections each losing 1.   Total seats going down from 475 seats to 465 seats.



So far this is the proposal.  The rumor is the Abe administration wants to push this through as to give it an excuse to have a double election in summer of 2016. He can say "Look, the supreme court indicated that we have to redistrict to be in compliance with the constitution so  now we did it lets have an election ASAP as to remove any double on the constitutionality of the elected MPs of the lower house."

[jaichind]

I wrote about this before but it is interesting to talk about the reason/nature of LDP domination of politics in Japan.  It is based on 3 facts which reinforce each other

1) LDP all things equal is the ruling party at the national level
2) LDP dominates local politics at the prefecture level
3) KP is locked into alliance with LDP at the national and local level in thick and thin

These facts are reinforced by the following set of facts

1) LDP has the ability to contain and manage conflicts of various factions all within the LDP ecosystem with a ruthless attention to make sure intra-factional conflict are managed in such a way that everyone that has real grassroots support and can win are still in LDP.  In   In other words the rule: "If you win you are LDP"
2) Prefecture governments cannot run budget deficits so prefecture governments must have relationships with the national governments for funding and subsidies to be able to provide pork to the voting population and various local vested interest.  So an up-an-coming local politician needs to have connections to the national government though some organizational means.
3) National elections are won in small district level where the personal vote are critical to winning. The personal vote is grown by politicians at the prefecture level which is really a farm league for national politics.
4) KP desires above all legitimacy in mainstream society and media.  This is critical especially after the 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the  Aum Shinrikyo cult.  It was after 1995 when the KP which was formed as an anti-LDP force became pro-LDP so it can me seen as mainstream.

So the net affect of all this is:

A rising local politician with local grassroots support all things equal join a LDP faction at the prefecture level and becomes part of the LDP prefecture government.  The range of positions of these LDP factions are such so that it gives the local politician the ability to join the faction that more fits with his ideological and local profile.  He then rises up in the national level adding his personal vote to the LDP+KP vote base to win national elections and add to the LDP majority which in turn is a source of funding for the next generation of rising local politician.   

A key part of all this the state of local prefecture politics in Japan which I spend some time looking at. I will report my findings as I pointed out, LDP success in local politics along with KP support locally as well is a key if not THE key linchpin of LDP domination of Japanese politics.
 

[jaichind]

週刊現代 (Shūkan Gendai) did a survey on the PR section of the lower House.  The results by block was

Hokkaido (北海道)                LDP 3 DPJ 2 KP 1 JCP 2 (+1) JIP 0 (-1)
Tohoku (東北)                     LDP 5 DPJ 3 (-1) KP 2 JCP 2 (+1) JIP 2
Kitakanto (北関東)               LDP 8 DPJ 4 KP 3 JCP 3(+1) JIP 2 (-1)
Minamikanto (南関東)          LDP 11 (+3) DPJ 5 (+1) KP 3 JCP 2 (-1) JIP 1 (-3)
Tokyo (東京)                       LDP 6 DPJ 3 KP 2 JCP 3 JIP 2 (-1) ORA 1 (+1)
Hokurikushinetsu(北陸信越) LDP 6 (+1) DPJ 2 (-1) KP 1 JCP 1 JIP 1
Tokai (東海)                         LDP 9 (+1) DPJ 4 (-1) KP 3 JIP 3 JCP 2
Kinki (近畿)                         ORA 10 (+10) LDP 9 KP 3 DPJ 2 (-2) JCP 2 (-2) JIP 2 (-6)
Chugoku (中国)                   LDP 5 KP 2 DPJ 1 (-1) JCP 1 ORA 1 (+1) JIP 1
Shikoku (四国)                    LDP 3 DPJ 1 KP 1 ORA 1 (+1) JIP 0 (-1)
Kyushu (九州)                     LDP 8 KP 4 DPJ 3 JCP 2 JIP 2 (-1) JCP 1 ORA 1 (+1) SDP 1

Which gives us

LDP     73 (+5)
DPJ     30  (-5)
KP       26
JCP     20
JIP      16 (-14)
ORA    14 (+14)
SDP      1

In this poll it seems that the the urban areas outside of Tokyo what remains of the YP vote base went over to LDP completely from JIP.  In the rural North it is the JCP that is gaining from DPJ, while in Osaka the JCP and DPJ loses ground to ORA as LDP-KP hold their own.  JIP and ORA are actually doing a bit better than I would expect.  These results would seem to imply that LDP-KP will be around 50%-51% of the vote on the PR section which would mean a mega landslide in FPTP unless DPJ-JIP-JCP form tactical alliances.

[jaichind]

Just now catching up on all of this.

So is it correct to say that what is left of the JIP is mostly the Unity Party and the Unity Party is mostly former members of Your Party who favored an alliance with the far right. Only now the far right has abandoned them to reform the ORA so now they might join an alliance with the DPJ.

Meanwhile, the original members of Your Party who favored the DPJ have mostly just disappeared? Or merged into the DPJ wholesale?

and the Your Party members who wanted to keep being the Your Party are now Assembly to Energize Japan or whatever?

Mostly correct.  But to be precise, there were 3 streams of Right splinters.  

SPJ is a LDP extreme right splinter
YP are anti-DPJ libertarians, anti-LDP libertarians, LDP rebels, and DPJ rebels.
JRP are a Osaka LDP Splinter faction plus some DPJ and LDP rebels

Then SPJ merged into JRP.
Then UP split from YP taking with them some anti-LDP libertarians, some LDP rebels, and some DPJ rebels with a couple of anti-DPJ libertarians.
Then UP merged with JRP to form JIP while PFG split out of JRP taking with some some of the LDP extreme right that was part of SPJ.
Then YP itself dissolved.  The anti-DPJ libertarians of YP became AEJ, the rest either joined JIP or PFG and others going back to DPJ.
Then JIP split with ORA taking with it the LDP extreme right, some LDP rebels, the Osaka LDP splinter, and what is left of the anti-DPJ libertarians in JIP.  Some LDP rebels from JIP also formed ARG.  This leaves JIP with mostly anti-LDP libertarians and DPJ rebels which makes it relatively easy to ally with DPJ as long as the DPJ left faction is not in charge.
 

[jaichind]

In addition to PFG losing is 5th MP recently making it no longer a valid caucus which then cuts them off from funding, the AEJ also lost a 5th MP.  One 井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) recently also quit AEJ which reduces AEJ to 4 MPs.  Just like PFG this cuts AEJ off from government funding.  ARG which was just created by former JIP members as 5 members.  It is possible AEJ might need to do a deal with ARG or PFG to get back above 5 MPs or somehow attract various center-right independent MPs to join AEJ. PFG is in the same situation. 

[jaichind]

ARG stands for 改革結集の会 which translates into Association of Reform Grouping.  I am making this up for now since there is no official name for ARG.

As for YP founder Yoshimi Watanabe, he still dealing with the on again and off again investigations and prosecution for a funding scandal which led to him being forced out of YP leadership back in early 2014. His own nephew is a ex-YP Upper House MP who is an independent as he choose not to join AEJ.  With the recent chaos and proliferation of splinter parties and defections on the non-LDP right there has been talk of  Watanabe making a political comeback to organize a larger Rightest bloc.  But that will have to wait until Watanabe's legal troubles are over.

In other news, as soon as Hashimoto stepped down as mayor of Osaka and officially "leaves politics" he meets with PM Abe at a Tokyo hotel.  Also attending the meeting will be Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and Osaka Gov and ORA leader Matsui.  It is clear they are working on ORA being part of the 2/3 majority in the Upper House after 2016 elections to push through constitutional changes as well as Hashimoto's return to politics mostly at the national level either in the LDP or an LDP ally.

[jaichind]

Now that all prefecture elections of 2015 are over with (except Okinawa where there is an election in 2016) it is useful to look at the state of play at politics of the prefecture level.  This is one of the pillars of LDP domination of Japanese politics.  All prefecture elections are based on SNTV  in multi-member constituency, so other than a bias toward LDP seat count in rural Japan where the district sizes are often just 1- or 2- seats, the seat distributions are PR-like.  

So looking at the % of seats in each prefecture for each of the political blocs does give a sense the relative strength of the blocs in each prefecture.  On thing that makes this analysis hard is the large number of independents elected.  But it turned out almost all of these independents are either backed by LDP-KP or the anti-LDP-KP center-left opposition blocs or in the case of LDP, a member of a minority faction of the LDP in the prefecture.  Most of the time these independents also joins the caucus of the party they are aligned with or are from.  If they are front a minority faction they the caucus of the minority faction they are from.  I grouped these independents with the party they are aligned with.

Those that ran and won as LDP or LDP backed or some minority faction of LDP I count under LDP+.  Since in all prefectures LDP and KP are allied I also show the percentage of the prefecture assembly that LDP+KP has as well.  JCP is easy since they always run on the JCP ticket.  All DPJ, PLP, SDP, or some other local center-left opposition party, plus independents allied with any of these parties I count as DPJ+.  I also include various independents without LDP+ background and not aligned with the LDP+ power structure but without clear center-left background either as part of DPJ+ as must of the votes for these members are from the DPJ+ vote base anyway. I count JIP, ORA, and post-YP independents as JIP+.  

           LDP+        KP       LDP+KP      DPJ+     JIP+      JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   46.46% 18.11%   64.57%   14.96%   7.09% 13.39% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25% 10.42%   41.67%   43.75%   6.25%   8.33% Okinawa
Tot    57.30%   8.12%   65.41%   25.06%   3.95%   5.62%

The domination of the LDP is clear.  Due to threshold effects especially in rural districts the LDP vote share are usually around 5% less than their seat percentage.    The result is clear to seat.  LDP-KP has a majority in nearly every prefecture, sometimes by massive margins which is especially impressive given the psudo PR nature of seat allocation.   The only prefectures where LDP-KP does not have a majority are 岩手 (Iwate), 三重 (Mie), 沖縄 (Okinawa), and 大阪(Osaka).  In the first 3 DPJ+ has the upper hand but does not have a simple majority either. Only with JCP backing does DPJ+ have a majority in these 3 prefectures.  In Osaka ORA has a plurality over LDP-KP but does not have a majority either with DPJ and JCP who are both anti-ORA having the balance of power.

All things equal LDP-KP vote share in prefecture elections tends to be around 5%-8% higher than their vote share in national elections in each prefecture in question.

[jaichind]

Looking at the prefecture numbers and comparing them to the vote share in national elections also gives us some color some of the local dynamics of prefecture politics.  All things equal the vote share of LDP-KP correlate heavily with seat share of LDP-KP at the prefecture level as is for the DPJ+ bloc.  There are some exceptions which is useful to document.

a) In 北海道 (Hokkaido) DPJ+ is a bit stronger than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the pro-LDP NPD is fairly strong at the local level.
b) In the northern prefectures 宮城 (Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima), DPJ+ is weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the local JCP is very strong which eats into DPJ+ votes at the local level.
c) In 茨城 (Ibaraki) LDP+ is a bit stronger and DPJ+ a bit weaker than their national votes would suggest.   This is because the large number of 1- seat districts and weakness of DPJ in rural areas.  Also there are two rival LDP factions which are fighting it out in Ibaraki.  The minority LDP faction which is based on LDP rebel MP 中村喜四郎  (Nakamura Kishirō)  are now in the the opposition space with the DPJ+.
d) In 栃木(Tochigi) both LDP+ and DPJ+ perform a bit weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is the legacy of a still strong post-YP operation.
e) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) DPJ+ is  stronger and LDP+ weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  A set grouping called 県政会神奈川県議会議員団 (Kanagawa Prefecture Meeting Club) of LDP rebels and ex-YP members formed to opposed LDP and formed a de facto alliance with DPJ+ managed to eat into the LDP+ vote.
f) In 東京(Tokyo) DPJ+ is weaker than their national vote share would suggest.  This is because the lcoal JCP is very strong which eats into DPJ+ votes at the local level.
g) In 新潟 (Niigata) LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest. This seems to be the effect of the Tanaka clan at the national level.  The daughter and son-in-law of old LDP PM Tanaka which are now in DPJ still has some influence over Nijgata are active in at the national level.  The old Tanaka machine at the local level stayed with LDP so the DPJ+ is much weaker at the local level than their national vote total.  As the Tanaka clan passes from the scene Nijgata will trend away from DPJ+ at the national level.
h) In 石川(Ishikawa). The DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because of the very weak DPJ+ operation in rural parts of the prefecture which allows the LDP+ to completely sweep the rural areas.
i) In 長野(Nagano).  The LDP+ is much stronger than their national votes would suggest in this very weak LDP prefecture.  This is because the JIP is much weaker here locally than the national JIP and most of the JIP votes goes to local LDP+.
j) In 岐阜(Gifu)  LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest. This seems to be the effect of the Tanaka clan at the national level.  This seems to be the affect of the way the prefecture district are drawn.  Most districts in Gifu, even urban ones, are drawn to be 1- 2- 3- and once in a while 4- member districts.  This makes the result a lot less PR and more like FPTP which gives an artificial number of LDP+ winners relative to other prefectures.
k) In 三重   (Mie) LDP+ is much weaker and DPJ+ much stronger than their national votes would suggest even as this is one of the strongest DPJ+ prefectures out there.  This is because there is a powerful pro-DPJ local party which dates back to the 1990s.  This local party which is called 新政みえ (or New Politics Mie) is based on the RENGO labor union alliance and eats into the LDP+ vote base, especially that of KP.
l) In 滋賀(Shiga)  LDP+ is much weaker and DPJ+ is much stronger than their national vote share would suggest.  This because the pro-DPJ governor managed to create a pro-DPJ local party called チームしが (Team) which ate into the LDP vote share.
m) In the Kinki prefectures  of 大阪 (Osaka)  and 奈良 (Nara) JIP+ is stronger than their national vote share would suggest even as they are the strongest JIP/ORA prefectures.  in Osaka JIP+ eats into both the LDP+ and DPJ+ vote bases. while in Nara JIP+ mostly eats into the LDP+ vote base.
n) In 和歌山 (Wakayama) which is also part of Kinki LDP+ is stronger than their national vote would suggest mostly because JIP+ is much weaker at the local level than their national vote would suggest so the JIP+ vote base seems to vote for LDP+.
o) In 徳島 (Tokushima) and 佐賀 (Saga) LDP+ is much stronger and DPJ+ much weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because there are two rival LDP factions which are fighting it out in here.  The minority LDP factions 明政会 (Clean Politics Club) in Tokushima and 県農政協議会 (Agricultural Policy Council or just JA) in Saga has pretty much taken over the opposition space from DPJ+.  DPJ+ are weak in both prefectures already at the national level and this makes them even weaker at the local level.
p) In 香川 (Kagawa)  LDP+ is stronger and DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This seems to be because in rural Kagawa the DPJ+ has become non-existent where it is not even challenging LDP+ in 3- seat rural areas when it should be fairly easy for DPJ+ given their vote share to win 1 of these 3 seats.
q) In 佐賀(Saga) The LDP+ is stronger and DPJ+ weaker than their national votes would suggest.  This is because the pro-farm JA (県農政協議会) faction of LDP has occupied the opposition space squeezing out the DPJ+.  
r) In 熊本(Kumamoto) DPJ+ is somewhat stronger than their national votes would suggest.  This is because of various LDP rebels seems to have formed de facto alliances with DPJ+ to take on the LDP+ in rural areas.
s) In 沖縄 (Okinawa)  DPJ+ is a lot stronger than their national vote share would suggest even as this is one of the weakest prefectures for LDP.  This is because the pro-LDP pro-JCP OSMP is fairly strong at the local level.  The saving grace for LDP+ is that the JIP+ in Okinawa which became ORA are aligned with LDP+ to counter OSMP.
 

[jaichind]

FPG or Party of Future Generations (次世代の党)  has changed its name to 日本のこころを大切にする党 which roughly translates to Party to Cherish the Japanese Mind.



I am not sure when if ever they will come out with the English name of the party.  I  guess for now I have  to label them PCJM.  I really doubt this will turn the party around.  

[jaichind]

Why do the Japanese right give their parties such horrendously creepy names?

Because they like to use terminology used by the government back in the 1930s and early 1940s. Te basic idea is this: The Japanese hawkish right reject the history of post-1945 Japan.  They feel that what happen to Japan in 1945 was unjust and that the Japanese government in the 1930s and 1940s were merely doing what was needed to survive and was no different from what European state were doing.   They cannot come out and say things without hurting their own political prospects as well as angering USA.  So they get around this by using terminology that were uniquely prominent in the 1930s and 1940s.  Words like Cherish, Japanese Mind, and Next generation were prominent in government lexicon in the pre-1945 era.  The Abe administration does this too.  In a lot of its policy documents it keeps on using the word 億 (ichi oku) which means 100 million in Kanji/Chinese.  Back in the 1930s 1940s the Japanese government kept on using ichi oku to refer to the common fate of the 100 million Japanese.  After the war this term pretty much disappeared.  Now it is back.  These words are a signal to the hawkish right electorate that the dream is alive, even if it is underground. 

[jaichind]

Are there particular geographic areas that have large concentrations of such stinkbats?

One clue would be to look at where the FPG and now PCJM PR votes came from in 2014.  They polled well in Tokyo (mostly due to Ishihara) and 岡山(Okayama) where PFG founder 平沼 赳夫( Hiranuma Takeo) is from.  Hiranuma is now back in LDP.  Another place where it did well is in rural 愛媛(Ehime) for some unknown reason.  Overall it does well in urban areas around Greater Tokyo but has circles of strength in the declining rural South.

[jaichind]

So Hashimoto is flip flopping too. Didn't he used to be opposed to working with the LDP? Wasn't that one of the issues that caused tension between him and Ishihara? Because Ishihara was pro-LDP since all his kids are in the LDP.

Well, Hashimoto had sensed that DPJ back in 2013 was weak so he wanted to merge JRP with UP and move toward the center so he can capture the opposition space from DPJ and eventually displace LDP+KP as the ruling party.  Ishihara was opposed to this so they split.  Then while DPJ did not do well in 2014 elections they did emerge stronger than JIP, Hashimoto could see that his plans will not work out.  So he decided to capture the Far Right vote to be a critical swing bloc to help LDP+KP to get to 2/3 majority in Upper House to push up his price on the political market.  This did not jive with the JIP moderates who wanted to align with DPJ so ergo there had to be a split. 

[jaichind]

Obviously under the current circumstances it seems hard to dislodge LDP from power anytime soon.  At best LDP can be contained but not stopped.  It has been stated that one way this can be broken is for LDP itself to split like in 1993 creating the space for the opposition to break in.  This of course is a two edged sword.  The LDP splinter can sometimes capture opposition space as to create a system where it is LDP vs LDP splinter and squeezing out the current opposition (DPJ JCP) all together.  In several prefectures the split of the LDP has actually squeezed the opposition without hurting the LDP political discourse/conflict moves to be within the LDP.  The most extreme and famous example of this is what took place in Osaka where the ORA was formed as a LDP splinter and in turn captured the entire non-LDP space before doing a minor version of it at the national level with the JRP.

To be fair Osaka is somewhat unique since there has always been resentment toward Tokyo so when Hashimoto who was elected governor of Osaka in 2008 as THE LDP candidate the ground was mature for a local Osaka pride revolt within the LDP against the LDP leadership in Osaka led by Hashimoto who did not get along with the Osaka LDP leadership.

One can see what took place by looking at the Osaka prefecture election results of 2007 2011 and 2015.

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           67            52           35.12%
KP             23            23           18.53%
DPJ           38             25           23.53%
SDP            1               1             0.75%
JCP           45             11           20.60%
Indep       12               0             1.48%

Here Osaka seems to have pretty "normal" election results at the prefecture level with LDP-KP domination with DPJ winning in districts with larger number of seats and LDP-KP dominating the 1- seat districts.  JCP is stronger than normal here but that seems to be at the expense of DPJ-SDP.


Then ORA was created in 2010 was Hashimoto split the LDP.  ORA challenged the LDP-KP across the board in 2011 defeated it by a significant margin   Note that 29 out of the 61 ORA candidates in 2011 were LDP incumbents from 2007.


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP            42             17          18.34%
KP              22             21          14.49%
ORA            61             58          41.07%
YP                2               1            0.75%
DPJ             36             10         12.91%
SDP              1               0           0.31%
JCP             38              4          11.60%
Indep           4              0            0.54%
  
Here ORA was allied with YP and ORA-YP won 41.82% versus LDP-KP 32.83% and winning a majority of seats.  ORA seems to draw its vote equally from DPJ-SDP and JCP as LDP-KP as it drew on the anti-LDP vote bloc from DPJ-SDP and JCP.   After the election it was clear that ORA was pretty hostile toward DPJ-SDP and JCP as well as it was Hashimoto's goal to completely displace them as the alternative to LDP.  As a result a de facto LDP-KP DPJ-SDP and JCP alliance was formed to stop ORA.  But this merely pushed anti-ORA votes in the DPJ toward LDP in 2015.  Another thing that hurt DPJ and JCP is the ORA administration reduced the number of seats in the Osaka Prefecture Assembly in the name of efficiency.   This reduced the relative number of 4- and 5- seat districts and increased the number of 1- and 2- seat districts.  With LDP-KP and ORA having vote share larger than DPJ and JCP, the 2015 elections would be fought on even more disadvantageous ground for DPJ and JCP.


2015
           Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP        52             26            29.39%
KP          15             15            10.73%
ORA        57             43            42.86%
DPJ         14              1               4.81%
JCP         35              3             11.83%
Indep       9               0               0.39%

This result pretty much finishes DPJ as a viable force in Osaka for a while with JCP completely marginalized keeping part of its vote bloc but not able to win any seats.  DPJ adds to this process by tactically supporting LDP in many districts where it only accelerates is decline.  LDP-KP did recover to push ORA below a majority but mostly by taking DPJ votes.

So the LDP civil war in Osaka merely serve to strengthen both LDP factions (LDP and ORA) at the expense of everyone else.

Now, since there are many 1- and 2- seats, these numbers might be warped by tactical voting and smaller parties might not put up candidates in these seats.  One way to work around this is to only look at 3- 4- 5- and 6- member districts in 2015 and calculate vote share based on these districts only.  Here all significant parties are likely to nominate candidates in these seats.  We can then compare these results to the same districts in 2011 and 2007.  Bases on that we have

2007
            Contest         Won      Vote Share
LDP           13              9           29.08%
KP               8              8           24.42%
DPJ             9               9          25.10%
SDP            1               1             2.67%
JCP             8               6           17.65%
Indep         5               0             1.07%


2011
              Contest        Won      Vote Share
LDP              7              4           14.71%
KP                8              8           20.78%
ORA              8             8           32.91%
YP                1              1            1.63%
DPJ             10             6           16.46%
SDP              1              0           1.06%
JCP               7              4          12.26%
Indep           1              0            0.20%


2015
          Contest       Won         Vote Share
LDP          9              7             19.37%
KP            7              7             18.55%
ORA          9              9            36.91%
DPJ           8              1             11.49%
JCP           7              3             13.48%
Indep       2               0               0.21%

Here we can see that DPJ's drop is not as dramatic as the overall numbers show but is severe enough to make it only somewhat viable in on districts larger than 3- seats.  Of course the narrative is the same.  First for 2011 DPJ-SDP and JCP votes drifted to ORA in addition to the votes ORA took from LDP which it split out of.  The in 2015 DPJ-SDP continued to lose support to both LDP-KP and ORA.   And that is without the affect of tactical voting.  The 2015 numbers are fairly close the PR section for 2014 Lower House elections in Osaka so this methodology I choose seems to be fairly valid.  

[jaichind]

In addition to PFG losing is 5th MP recently making it no longer a valid caucus which then cuts them off from funding, the AEJ also lost a 5th MP.  One 井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) recently also quit AEJ which reduces AEJ to 4 MPs.  Just like PFG this cuts AEJ off from government funding.  ARG which was just created by former JIP members as 5 members.  It is possible AEJ might need to do a deal with ARG or PFG to get back above 5 MPs or somehow attract various center-right independent MPs to join AEJ. PFG is in the same situation.  

It seems  井上義行 (Inoue Yoshiyuki) who quit AEJ recently has decided to caucus with LDP.  He was elected in 2013 on the Upper House YP PR slate.  I guess he is angling to join LDP so he can get renominated and reelected in 2019.

PFG Upper House MP 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) has left PFG to be an independent indicating that he might join ORA.  Of course he being up for re-election in 2016 and having no prospect of being re-elected on the FPG slate is a key factor.  I guess he is hoping to get on the ORA PR list.   PFG now has only 4 MPs and below the threshold to form a caucus which in turn means it will lose government funding.  PFG is pretty much finished as is.  It could perhaps merge with AEJ or the new JIP splinter ARG or perhaps with ORA itself.

Also, Former PFG MP 松沢成文 (Shigefumi Matsuzawa) who quit PFG back in the summer when it was obvious he could not win the PFG leadership contest is looking to form yet another Right wing party.  It seems he might be perhaps trying to create this new party by merging ARG into it.  I guess it is also possible if 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) does not get a good deal from ORA he might join this outfit.

If seems 江口克彦 (Eguchi Katsuhiko) who quit PFG (now PCJM) recently has decided to join ORA.

It seems Jan 1 2016 is the deadline for PCJM and AEJ to get their number of MPs to be 5 or above or lose government funding for the party.

[jaichind]

Current Japan RCP Cabinet Approval rating (blue for approve and red for disapprove).  Abe Cabinet average approval now back up to where it was in early Summer before the security bill controversy.  

[jaichind]

Asahi reports that Abe is considering same-day parliament elections to help boost chances of gaining seats in upper house so that his government can have necessary 2/3 majority in both chambers to change constitution.

[jaichind]

Abe and the LDP will run in the July Upper House elections on the platform of getting a 2/3 majority for Constitutional change.  ORA is also running arguing that a vote for it is a vote for ORA to be a part of that 2/3 majority in the Upper House.

Meanwhile, it seems that after DPJ and JIP formed a joint caucus in the Lower House paving the way for a similar move in the Upper House followed by a possible merger, the JIP and AEJ decided to form a joint caucus in the Upper House.  This complicates DPJ-JIP alliance and merger plans.  The DPJ seems to be fairly upset about this as they were not consulted on this move by JIP.  I guess JIP is trying to increase its bargaining position vis-a-vis DPJ to forming a bloc with AEJ.  AEJ needs this as it is down to just 4 MPs and in danger of getting is government funding cut off for falling below 5 MPs.

[jaichind]

Professor of Sociology and Political Science 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) came out with projections of election results if there were a double election which is fairly negative for DPJ JIP.  He has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        68 (of which 20 PR) for a total of 131 
KP          11 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  22
ORA         5 (of which  2 PR) for a total of   10
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        27 (of which 10 PR) for a total of  44
JIP           3 (of which   2 PR) for a total of   4
JCP          9 (of which   6 PR) for a total of  17
PLP          1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

Which should give a easy 2/3 majority for Constitutional revision. 

For Lower House he projects

LDP             302       (230 District 72 PR)
KP                 37        (   9 District 28 PR)
ORA              15         (   6 District  9 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               77        ( 39 District 38 PR)
JIP                11        (  3 District   8 PR)
PLP                 1        (  1 District   0 PR)
SDP                1        (  0 District   1 PR)
JCP               26        (  2 District  24 PR)

Which is very similar to 2014 with a small swing to LDP-KP and JIP and ORA losing out slightly from the JIP split.