Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Pictures on current relationships in the Tokyo situation. 



The players are Koike, Tokyo KP, Tokyo LDP, and national LDP.

It points out that Tokyo LDP are now at war with Koike and Tokyo KP.  The national LDP is trying to "maintain a relationship" with Tokyo KP given need to maintain the national alliance between LDP and KP.  Koike is allied with Tokyo KP iterating toward a confrontation with the national LDP.  The breaking point between Koike and the national LDP is when the LDP finally decides to expel Koike from LDP.

[jaichind]

Kagoike, in testimony to an upper house budget committee under oath – which means he could face perjury charges if he is later found to have lied – said that he had received money from Abe’s wife in 2015 when the two of them were alone in a room at the school.

“She said ‘please, this is from Shinzo Abe,’ and gave me an envelope with one million yen in it,” Kagoike said. “Abe’s wife apparently says she doesn’t remember this at all, but since this was a matter of honor to us, I remember it quite vividly.”

Kagoike says he was “surprised by the large discount” his foundation received to purchase public land to build school.  When asked whether there was political involvement in land deal, Kagoike says he thinks there probably was.

[jaichind]

Kagoike also alleged that in October 2015 he sought Akie Abe’s influence in extending a 10-year lease for a plot of land that he later purchased to build the elementary school, Mizuho no Kuni.  He said he left a message on her phone asking for help. Her secretary Saeko Tani, who eventually replied via fax, said that despite efforts to negotiate with the Finance Ministry, they couldn’t get the deal he had hoped for.

Kagoike also said that in a recent email exchange with his wife, Junko, Akie Abe urged her to keep quiet about her “involvement.”

“It almost sounded like the first lady was trying to seal our lips,” Kagoike said.

[jaichind]

What do you think the fallout could be from this?

Well Abe is denying everything that Kagoike is saying.  The Japanese equities market is pretty much flat throughout the testimony meaning the markets seems to feel that Abe will ride this out. 

[jaichind]

Is there any good English language books or texts about Japanese politics in the 90's? The weak governments leading to the dramatic loss, Hosokawa-Hata-Murayama period and the subsequent LDP-Socialist alliance seems really fascinating.

Is it right to say that Hosokawa was too honourable to fall on his sword when he did?

Sorry, none I know of.  Most of my knowledge of Japanese politics in the 1980s and 1990s are via the Chinese language media on Taiwan Province which does a pretty good job of covering Japan

[jaichind]

One thing this scandal shows is that all those Masonic/Illuminati-like conspiracy theories of Nippon Kaigi are really not true.  Both Abe and Kagoike are part of Nippon Kaigi but that did not stop them from turning against each other when the going got tough.

[jaichind]

Just to be clear how things are lining up in Japan.  We have LDP, KP, JRP, Opposition (DP+JCP), and TPFA (Koike)

In Tokyo it will be
LDP+JRP(maybe) vs TPFA+KP vs Opposition
(possible tactical alliance between Opposition and TPFA+KP)

In Osaka it will be
LDP vs JRP+KP vs Opposition
(possible tactical alliance between LDP and Opposition)

Nationwide it will be
LDP+KP vs Opposition vs JRP
(possible tactical alliance between Opposition and JRP)

The formal and tactical alliances are all over the place

The next national election will most likely be the last one where LDP and KP will be running as allies.  Relationship between the two parties have deteriorated to the point where Abe figured he will ride the alliance with KP one last time to get him to 2021 when his term for LDP president is up before just junking the alliance and keeping giving in to KP on policy and political timing issues.   

[jaichind]

What do Komeito get out of their alliance? Could they be brought in as an ally to DP?

1) At the Diet level LDP no longer needs KP since LDP now has by itself a majority in the Upper House
2) In theory LDP needs KP for 2/3 majority for Constitutional Revision but KP does not seem to keen on it and LDP deep down might prefer the issue than actually do it
3) LDP will need KP for election victories but after years of winning (2012 2013 2014 2016) LDP is getting cocky and feeling that it can win on its own and not give in to KP on policy issues all the time
4) KP is really controlled by the KP married women division.  LDP forced KP to back a new lack back in Dec  to legalize casinos.  That seems to be he last straw for KP married women division.  After that you can see that at the local level KP is opening turning against LDP.
5) It seems both LDP and KP will try to get the alliance to work one last time for the benefits of both but I suspect after that they will have to go their separate ways. 
6) KP is always seen as out of the mainstream and what it craves is social acceptability.  Alliance with LDP gave it that.   DP still has a poor image due to 2009-2012 so more likely KP will want to ally with parties like TPFA or even JRP where both are seen as mainstream in Tokyo and Osaka at least.   

[jaichind]

What Abe approval ratings looks like before the Diet testimony, falling but not catastrophic



LDP support mostly steady



DP support has been falling and fatal for Renho it it does not pick up soon.  Of course part of it might be DP supporters going into hibernation due elections in 2016 being over



JCP support mostly steady



JRP could benefit from Abe's problems but like DP its supporters last few months going into hibernation due elections in 2016 being over

[jaichind]

Kyodo News poll post-Diet testimony (some slight drop but not dramatic)

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 52.4 (-3.3) / 32.5 (+1.

New approval average curve


Prime Minister Abe, including Mrs. Akie, denies involvement in connection with Morihito Gakuen's problem
It is Convincing 28.7%
Not Convincing 62.6%

Should Akie Abe go to the Diet to testify under oath Yes 52.0% No 42.8%

The significant number of those polled not for Akie Abe to testify in the Diet tells me there will be damage for Abe  but he should ride this out if nothing else emerges.

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll in Tokyo showing LDP making a tiny comeback



TPFA    39.6
KP         4.4

LDP      16.1

DP         4.5
JCP        6.5

Given how KP and DP tends to under-poll and that TPFA I would expect to over-poll I would think this poll would translate into election day vote shares of

TPFA  38
KP     13

LDP   22

DP     11
JCP    11

This assumes TPFA would be able to recruit some solid candidates and that DP-JCP does form an alliance.

Koike approval rating sliding a bit

[jaichind]

JNN poll (which historically has a pro-LDP bias)

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval   57.0 (-4.0)/40.6 (+3.3)

Which gives us approval average around 50%



It is interesting that this poll asked if Abe's explanation on the donation from Kagoike  is believable.  It found 27% found Abe's explanation convincing while 56% found Abe's explanation not convincing.  This is another proof that Abe approval stems from the TINA factor.  

[jaichind]

KP poster in Tokyo about a pre-election rally before the July 2017 Tokyo prefecture elections



It also mentions TPFA and has Koike on the poster as well.  This election KP seems, for better or worse, have tied itself to Koike and determined to take down Tokyo LDP along with Koike.

Part of KP's agenda could be to help her power base so when Abe's fall comes, Koike can take his place at the head of LDP and energy to the LDP-KP alliance which seems to be fraying from both sides even as it is still in place.

[jaichind]

Latest Tokyo poll has LDP coming back



TPFA    33.9
KP         7.0

LDP      19.9

JRP        1.6

DP         4.9
JCP        7.1

[jaichind]

Abe approval rating coming back now that the whole Kagoike Osaka school issue is off the news for now

[jaichind]

Latest Tokyo Prefecture election polls has Kioke approval falling slightly and TPFA stabilizing and LDP revival stalling
 




TPFA    37.7
KP         5.4

LDP      16.3

DP         4.5
JCP        8.8

Note that DP candidates  will be split into two bloc, some are center-right which are more aligned with TPFA-KP while other are center-left which are aligned with JCP.  JRP is polling around 1%.  With that in mind we can estimate based on this poll

Third Pole Center-Right anti-LDP Bloc
TPFA+KP+DP(Right)   45.3%

LDP+ bloc
LDP+JRP 17.3%

Center-Left bloc
JCP+DP(Left) 11.3%

Edit: fixed link so they are viewable

[jaichind]

In the latest hearings Kagoike, the former head of school operator Moritomo Gakuen, told the Diet that during his dealings with the Finance Ministry, from which Moritomo Gakuen had been leasing the land before the cut-price sale in June last year:

"I informed Akie Abe, the prime minister's wife, about the content of the negotiations at appropriate times over the telephone.  In the middle of the negotiations, the Finance Ministry officials suddenly started to show a positive attitude"

I guess unless there is something that can prove all and real intervention by Abe's wife  I doubt this will hurt Abe that much.

[jaichind]

Shinzo Abe Announces Plan to Revise Japan’s Pacifist Constitution

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/world/asia/japan-constitution-shinzo-abe-military.html?_r=0

Polling is erratic and really depends on wording but support for this seems to be 50/50 but shifting to a pro-change position recently

[jaichind]

How pro-constitution change is the media of Japan? Is a constitutional referendum likely to be a lopsided affair in terms of campaign space, given the marginalisation of the liberals?

Mostly split although pro-revision media has the upper hand.

[jaichind]

For Tokyo Prefecture elections political journalist, Suzuki Tetsuo, came out with his projection



TPFA   46
KP       21

LDP     40
JRP       0

DP        5
JCP     13
TSN      2

Majority for TPFA-KP alliance but LDP doing pretty well due to better candidate selection.

[jaichind]

List of candidates in each district (number if number of MLA to be elected) so far for Tokyo Prefecture elections

Blue - LDP
Pink - KP
Red - DP
Orange - JCP
Green - TPFA
Grey - Other (includes TPFA backed independents and JRP which are allied with LDP)

A bunch of DP MLAs are running as TPFA backed independents.  

DP over-nominating candidates in some key 6- or 8- seat districts.  At this stage DP should not bother with 1- 2- or 3- districts unless the DP candidate is very strong and should not nominate more than 2 candidates in any districts.

TPFA looks like still lacks good candidates in some of the 6- and 8- seat districts.  

[jaichind]

Look at the candidate lists for now and making some assumptions on a few districts TPFA and JCP should be nominating candidates I can make my back-of-the-envelope projection of the Tokyo Prefecture elections on 7/2.
                  
LDP mainly retained most of their MLAs to run for re-election.  Some LDP MLAs did defect as did a lot of DP MLAs.  Most of them are running as independents with TPFA backing.   In urban areas there seems to be almost almost no defections from DP or LDP to TPFA.  So TPFA will have to win based on its brand appeal there versus taking over the political machines of defecting MLAs.  It is in rural areas where such defections are significant.  The main problem there is the majority of these rural districts are 1- 2- or 3- seat districts where these defectors then are fighting with the TFPA recruited candidate in a 4 way battle between LDP, TPFA, TPFA backed defector from LDP or DP, and JCP.  Often these battles are split in such a way as to ensure that LDP does win a seat from the 2- and 3- seat districts.

So with the LDP machine mostly intact in urban areas where one expects a large swing from LDP to TPFA and damage to LDP limited and in rural areas where TPFA did get some defectors but a crowed field plus a smaller swing toward TPFA also limits gains.

As a result the TPFA landslide the polls keeps on talking about does not materialize although TPFA bloc plus KP should win a narrow majority and LDP lives to fight another day.


                                 Contested    Win
TPFA total                       57          45
  TPFA                             37          31
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  2            2
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                1            1
  TPFA (ex-JRP)                 1            1
  TPFA (ex-YP)                  3            3
  Ind (ex-DP)                  10            4
  Ind (ex-LDP)                  2            2
KP                                 23          23

LDP                               60          39
JRP                                 6            0

DP                                22            5
DP rebel                          1            0
TSN                                4            3
SDP                                1            0
JCP                               36          12

[jaichind]

It is interesting to track 2013 Tokyo prefecture incumbents and where they ended up from DP, YP and JRP.

In 2013
15 DPJ
7 YP
2 JRP
1 DPJ rebel
were elected.

Now we can track where they went.
15 DPJ -> 6 will run for re-election with the DP ticket.  3 left DP and joined TPFA and will be running as TPFA, and 4 left DP and will run as TPFA backed independents, 1 will run as a DPJ rebel, 1 retired from politics.
7 YP -> 3 joined DP and will run on DP ticket.  3 became independent and then all joined TPFA and will run on the TPFA ticket,  1 joined DP and will run for DP at the national level and will not run for re-election.
2 JRP -> 1 joined DP and then left DP to run as TPFA backed independent, 1 will run for re-election under JRP
1 DPJ rebel - will run as a TPFA backed independent.

[jaichind]

For Tokyo Prefecture elections I noticed TPFA engage in a certain nomination pattern to try to take down LDP which is low risk but high reward.  It involved the various rural 2- seat districts.  There are 15 2- seat districts.  It seems TPFA-KP alliance are trying in 8 of them to win both seats which is usually hard.

In almost all these 2- seat districts, the candidates are almost always in 2013

1. LDP  elected
2. DPJ   elected
3. JCP
4. JRP or YP

In 8 of these 15 what TPFA-KP are doing is to nominate a TPFA candidate with no experience but can use the Koike brand to pull in LDP voters.  Then in almost all these cases the DP incumbent who has local organization support left DP (to avoid the DP negative brand in rural areas) and run as a TPFA backed independent to pull in the DPJ and non-LDP vote.  This creates the situation where it becomes

1. TPFA
2. TPFA backed ex-DP independent  
3. LDP
4. JCP

Where the old DPJ incumbent running with TPFA support will squeeze the JCP vote while the Koike brand will take enough of the LDP vote as well as the JRP/YP vote for the two TPFA candidates to win and eject the LDP.  I rate the chances of this working to be low and in my back-of-the-envelope projections has TPFA pulling off 2 out of 2 a total of 0 times out of 8.  

Of course if there is a anti-LDP wave then this will work.  This strategy is there to ensure that the candidates are there to take advantage of a collapse of the LDP if it were to take place.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval stabilizing at around 55%



Party support mostly stable for LDP with DP falling over time.  Renho's days are numbered.