Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Hora Cero poll for Mexico state has MORENA well ahead



MORENA              34.0
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.5
PRD                     15.9
PAN                     13.2
PRI rebel                6.5
PT                          2.7

[jaichind]

Different Mexico State polls might disagree on who has the lead, PRI vs MORENA.  But it seems all of them are converging on PAN being pushed to 4th place or struggling to stay in 3rd place.  At the beginning of the campaign PAN's Mota (who was the PAN candidate for President in 2012) in first place. The PAN collapse is quite extraordinary.

[jaichind]

Mexico state poll has PRI and MORENA neck-to-neck
 


MORENA              25.18
PRI                      24.87
PRD                     18.06
PAN                     12.61

This poll has PAN in 3rd place but shows the same pattern of collapse over the last couple of weeks as PRD surges.  

Same poll has PRI ahead if coalitions of PVEM-PANAL-PES with PRI are asked


 
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  25.32
MORENA              24.59
PAN                     18.26
PRD                     11.47

Of course which bloc will people never vote for



PRI is way at the top.  This indicates that last minute tactical voting to block PRI is quite possible.  Most likely PRD->MORENA or even PAN->MORENA

[jaichind]

Nayarit poll still has PAN-PRD-PT alliance way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          43.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   24.9
MORENA               13.3
PRI rebel               11.1

[jaichind]

Indicadores SC poll on Mexico State has MORENA ahead and PAN falling



MORENA              37.4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  26.3
PRD                     16.3
PAN                     13.3
PRI rebel                2.9
PT                          1.2

[jaichind]

Are polls in Mexico generally not reliable?

I think they are all over the place and the quality seems to vary.

[jaichind]

Back in 2011 the results of these 3 states were in terms of non-null vote share.  Of course this was a the peak of PRI popularity after 11 years of PAN rule where anti-incumbency was clearly building up.


Mexico State
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   65.1%
PRD-PT-MC            22.0%
PAN                      12.9%


Coahuila
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   61.5%
PAN                       36.0%
PT                           1.6%
PRD                         1.0%


Nayarit
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.9%
PAN                      39.4%
PRD                      11.1%
PT-MC                     2.1%

The current polls coming out of these states shows the extend of the fall of PRI support.

[jaichind]

The National Indigenous Congress (CNI) has chosen activist and traditional medicine practitioner Marichuy Patricio Martínez as their candidate for the 2018 presidential election. http://www.sistemamichoacano.tv/noticias/22-nacional/18257-marichuy-patricio-la-candida-indigena-para-el-2018

My understanding is that this "Indian Governance Council" is just a front organization of the Zapatistas.  Of course because the council is not a registered political party, it may need signatures to get Patricio on the ballot.

[jaichind]

El Universal has a narrow PRI lead in Coahuila


 
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     35.5
PAN                         31.4
MORENA                  17.9
PRI rebel                   8.8
PT                             3.2
PRD                          2.2

If 2016 polls and then election results from Northern Mexico like Durango, Chihuahua, and Tamaulipas were the set the standard then PAN should get a narrow win with polls like this as the anti-PRI vote concentrate around PAN.

[jaichind]

Looks like final polls are coming out from various media outlets

Mexico State for Reforma has PAN falling like other polls



MORENA              31.9 (+2.9)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.7 (+2.7)
PRD                     16.8 (+2.8   )
PAN                     14.1 (-7.9)
PRI rebel                5.8 (+3.8   )
PT                          0.6 (-2.4)   (has dropped out of the race backing MORENA)

[jaichind]

Reforma Coahuila



PAN                         37  (+1)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     33   (-3)
MORENA                  18  (+2)
PRI rebel                   7   (+2)
PRD                          2   (-2)
PT                            2

[jaichind]

Nayarit still PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          44
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27
MORENA               12
PRI rebel                 9
MC                         4

[jaichind]

 BGC-Excélsior poll for Coahuila has it neck-to-neck



PAN                         36
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     35   
MORENA                  18 
PRI rebel                   7   
PT                             2
PRD                          1.5 

[jaichind]

Another Nayarit still PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          43.0
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   21.1
MORENA               14.5
PRI rebel                 9.7
 

[jaichind]

Given how 2016 tactical voting went PRI is facing a wipe-out this Sunday losing to PAN-PRD by a landslide in Nayarit while narrowly losing Edomex (Mexico State) to MORENA and narrowly losing to PAN in Coahuila.

In theory this should be good news for PAN  since it means that PRI will most likely collapse in 2018 and PAN can clean up the establishment vote from PRI beating out AMLO just like in 2006.  A viable PRI will split the establishment vote with PAN opening the way for ALMO to win.

[jaichind]

A Mexico State poll that has PRI ahead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL  33.8
MORENA              29.3
PRD                     17.4
PAN                     14.7
PRI rebel                2.9
PT                          1.9 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

BGC-Excélsior poll for Mexico State has small MORENA lead



MORENA              28
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27
PRD                     23
PAN                     19
PRI rebel                2
PT                          1 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Comparison of Edomex (Mexico state) polls



What is new on this list is El Universal which has PRI ahead

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  33.8
MORENA              29.3
PRD                     17.4
PAN                     14.7

and Promedio which also has a narrow PRI lead
 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.5
MORENA              29.7
PRD                     19.1
PAN                     15.9

All of them seems to point to PAN being finished and given the pattern of tactical voting and anti-PRI sentiment (large majorities in many polls said they will never vote PRI) that MORENA is more likely to win on anti-PRI tactical voting.  Ideally for MORENA you want PAN distant third and PRD distant forth.  PAN voters might tactically vote PRI to defeat MORENA while PRD tactical will for sure back MORENA.  PRD having a chance here is holding back a bit the PRD anti-PRI tactical vote.

[jaichind]

SDP poll in Nayarit has PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          38.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   18.5
MORENA               10.4
PRI rebel               10.2
MC                         6.8

[jaichind]

and Promedio which also has a narrow PRI lead
 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.5
MORENA              29.7
PRD                     19.1
PAN                     15.9

Promedio just means the arithmetical mean of the three polls on the left.

Oops.  Thanks for pointing it out.

[jaichind]

Final Mitofsky poll for Edomex which unlike the other polls still has PAN still in the running



MORENA              25.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  22.2
PAN                     20.8
PRD                     13.6
PRI rebel                3.7
PT                         1.2 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Election is today.  In theory polls close 6pm which is 7pm EST.  Not sure if there will be any exit polls.  Mostly like there will be at least for Edomex (State of Mexico).

[jaichind]

Financiero exit poll for Mexico State is too close to call.  I assume between PRI and MORENA.

[jaichind]

PAN declares victory in both  Coahuila and Nayarit which it claims sets it up for victory in 2018 Prez elections.

[jaichind]

I found PREP for 

Coahuila   http://prep-coahuila-2017.proceso.com.mx/
Nayarit     http://www.ine.mx/prep-nayarit/

I think Edomex is http://148.215.1.73/rptDistrital.html  but not sure that is the official one.