Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[jaichind]

Ibovespa benchmark stock index ended up 3.7% on news of Lula corruption appeal being dismissed.  It seems Lula claims he will still run for Prez.  Not sure how he will do this.  Is he not just barred from running ?

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Rosa Weber, the Supreme Court judge seen as the swing vote in the case of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has voted to reject the former president’s plea to remain at liberty while he appeals a criminal conviction.  The votes are now 4 x 1 against Lula, with 6 judges still to vote

[jaichind]

Why does not PT nominate one of Lula's children as its candidate in a campaign for justice for Lula?  If all those voters that would have voted for Lula also feel he is being locked up to prevent his victory then this should be a sure fire way for PT to win.

[jaichind]

A Billion Dead Chickens Show Toll of Strike Paralyzing Brazil

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/strike-halted-in-brazil-as-government-agrees-to-fix-fuel-prices

Wow.  A billion chickens will most likely die ....

[jaichind]

Ibovespa fell 4.5% and closes Below 200-Day Moving Average because of the strikes.  I wonder who is benefiting from all this.  I have to assume it is Bolsonaro.

[jaichind]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Why is Lula not able to transfer his support to Haddad?

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro has just been stabbed during an campaign event in the city of Juiz de Fora.

Brazil’s stocks and BRL jumped immediately following the attack on the premise that Bolsonaro's chances of winning went up as a result.

[jaichind]

Ibope poll

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticia/2018/09/11/pesquisa-ibope-bolsonaro-26-ciro-11-marina-9-alckmin-9-haddad-8.ghtml?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=g1

Bolsonaro  26 (+4)
Gomes   11 (-1)
Silva 9 (-3)
Alckmin 9 (--)
Haddad  8 (+2)

In a runoff, poll shows Bolsonaro would beat Haddad (40% to 36%), lose to Gomes (37% to 40%) and Alckmin (37% to 38%), and tie w/ Silva at 38%

Bolsonaro’s rejection rating fell to 41% from 44%

[jaichind]

 XP/Ipespe poll

Bolsonaro   26 (+3)
Gomes   12 (+1)
Haddad 10 (+2)
Silva 8 (-3)
Alckmin 9 (---)

If Haddad as being endorsed by Lula then it is

Bolsonaro   23
Haddad 16
Gomes  11
Alckmin 9
Silva 6

Runoff

Haddad 28% vs 38% Alckmin
Bolsonaro 36% vs 37% Alckmin
Marina Silva 37% vs 36% Bolsonaro
Gomes and Alckmin 35%
Gomes 40% vs 35% Bolsonaro
Haddad 38% vs 40% Bolsonaro


I was really hoping for Bolsonaro vs Alckmin second round but that was never likely and seems pretty much out of reach now

[jaichind]

Datafolha

Bolsonaro   26 (+2)
Haddad 13 (+4)
Gomes  13 (---)
Alckmin 9 (-1)
Silva 8 (-3)

In a runoff, poll shows Bolsonaro trailing Gomes, Silva and Alckmin; ahead of Haddad 41% to 40%
Bolsonaro’s rejection rating rose to 44% from 43%, the highest among all candidates; Haddad’s rose to 26% from 22%

[jaichind]

CNT/MDA poll 

Bolsonaro   28.2
Haddad       17.6
Gomes        10.8
Alckmin        6.1
Silva            4.1

In runoff scenarios:
Gomes 37.8% vs Bolsonaro 36.1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs Haddad 35.7%
Bolsonaro 38.2% vs Alckmin 27.7%
Bolsonaro 39.4% vs Marina Silva 28.2%

[jaichind]

XP/Ipespe poll

Bolsonaro  28 (+2)
Haddad      16(+6)
Gomes      11 (-1)
Alckmin      7 (-2)
Silva          6 (-2)

Runoff
Bolsonaro 41% vs 38% Haddad (used to be 40-38 last poll)
Gomes 40% vs 35% Bolsonaro
Alckmin 38% vs 31% Haddad
Bolsonaro 39% vs 39% Alckmin
Bolsonaro 40% vs 35% Marina Silva
Gomes 37% vs Alckmin 35%

[jaichind]

Ibope 

Bolsonaro  27
Haddad     21
Gomes      12
Alckmin      8

Bolsonaro’s rejection rating at 44%; Haddad’s at 27%

Second round: Haddad  42  Bolsonaro 38

Seems pretty consistent with all the others.   It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

[jaichind]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

Recently there were media reports of a spat with his top economic adviser, outspoken opposition from women groups (women's role in society) and soccer fans (mostly over minority rights), and a media report that he allegedly threatened his ex-wife.

[jaichind]

XP/Ipespe poll (change from a week ago)

Bolsonaro   28 (--)
Haddad      21 (+5)
Gomes       11 (--)
Alckmin       8 (+1)
Silva           6 (-1)

Second round

Haddad 43   Bolsonaro 39
Gomes 43   Bolsonaro 35

If Haddad does win on the second round then it would be the first time in Brazil elections the second place finisher in the first round goes on to defeat the first place finisher in the first round.

[jaichind]

I think Bolsonaro will over perform polls.  I think the anti-PT vote is a lot more motivated than the PT vote and will turn out in higher numbers.  Not sure if that holds second round though.   

[jaichind]

MDA/CNT poll

Bolsonaro   36.7 (+8.5)
Haddad       24.0 (-1.2)
Gomes         9.9  (-0.9)
Alckmin        5.8  (-0.3)

Runoff Bolsonaro 45.2 (+6.2) vs Haddad 38.7 (+3.0)

[jaichind]

Looks like ex-Prez Dilma Rousseff and Bolsonaro's son Flavio will both be on he ballot for Senate.

[jaichind]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

[jaichind]

I assume that exit polls for a lot of non-Prez races will come out at 4pm EST while the Prez exit polls come out 6pm EST and 80% of the Prez vote counted due to parts of Western Brazil being on different time zones.

[jaichind]

From AP

"Brazil's Superior Electoral Court says that at least 300 electronic voting machines were malfunctioning and have been replaced."

"Fernando Haddad, who is running in second place, voted in Sao Paulo.

Brazilians in nearby buildings beat on pots to show their disapproval when he spoke afterward.

While the pots were banging, Haddad's supporters chanted that he would be president, making it impossible to hear what the candidate said."

[jaichind]

Wow. What a disasterous number for Rousseff

[jaichind]

Any exit polls for the presidential race?

6pm est.  Of course 80% of the vote would have been counted.  I cannot stand this system.  Take all the fun out of it.  

[jaichind]

Any link to live results?

[jaichind]

Looks like the anti-PT vote is out in full force.   Excellent.