French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

How is this a quota? They didn't stop anyone from running.

Of course it is.  REM has 428 positions to fill as those with a REM ticket.  Out of the 19,000 or so candidates that applied REM choose among the candidates such so that the 428 candidates picked are exactly 214 male and 214 female.  That is a quota. 

Of course any of the 19,000 candidates rejected are free to run as an independent but the application process was for the REM candidate of which can be only 428 of them.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Alain Juppe, a former French prime minister and the current mayor of Bordeaux, would be the preferred prime minister in the future government of President-Elect Emmanuel Macron for 26% of those surveyed in an Odoxa poll.
Francois Bayrou gets preference of 22% in poll, Jean-Yves Le Drian 19%, Jean-Louis Borloo 18%
76% of those surveyed say choice of prime minister by Emmanuel Macron will impact their vote in June parliamentary legislative

[jaichind]

How is this a quota? They didn't stop anyone from running.

Of course it is.  REM has 428 positions to fill as those with a REM ticket.  Out of the 19,000 or so candidates that applied REM choose among the candidates such so that the 428 candidates picked are exactly 214 male and 214 female.  That is a quota. 

Of course any of the 19,000 candidates rejected are free to run as an independent but the application process was for the REM candidate of which can be only 428 of them.

For the record, it is the law that forces that. If there isnt an equal number of men and women, they get fined.

Oh, if that is the case then certainly it is my misunderstanding.  If so then I would expect that other parties like LR FN and PS to also have equal number of men and women candidates or do they pay the fine?  Of course all this means is that my ire is turned against this law versus REM. 

[jaichind]

In 2012 PS obeyed the law and nominated 49 % women, while UMP, from what I know, preferred to pay the fine.

I looked this up.  It seems this law mandating 50/50 in terms of gender which I totally oppose only is in play for PR seats.  So REM was under no obligation to nominate 50/50 for these district seats.  The fact they did so was part of their political message and brand, which in this case I oppose.

[jaichind]

Looks like François Bayrou is furious over the REM list that includes 24 PS MPs and only 35 on the list are from MoDem.  Mr Bayrou told Le Nouvel Observateur magazine that he and Macron had agreed before the election that about a quarter of the constituencies would be allocated to MoDem, while the remaining three quarters would be represented by REM. He said this represents the weight of the contribution he provided during Macron’s campaign.

[jaichind]

    So it looks like there will be many seats where after the 1st round we might have a REM, Republican, a FN and a left candidate all making the 2nd round. In such circumstances what kind of stand down agreements are likely, if at all.

Is that true? With the 12.5% of registered voters threshold and turnout around 60% or even lower along with some nulls one would need 21% to get into the second round.  I find it hard to believe that we will have 4 candidates all above 21% in many seats especially with PS, FI/PG and FCP splinting the Left vote.

 

[jaichind]

Still, PCF will take their 2 or 3 %, and their results will be higher in the places where the Left is strong (e. g. exactly in the same places where PS or FI candidates have a chance to make into the 2nd round). Another 1 or 2 % in such constituencies can go to Lutte Ouvrière. All this means that most likely only in very few places there will be a leftist in the 2nd round.

More importantly, FI/PG and PS-EELV will split the Left vote down the middle with neither bloc close to the 20% threshold.  I am sure in Left strongholds one of the two will make it to the second round but unless there are significant tactical voting in the average seat neither bloc seems poised to enter second round.

[jaichind]

what kind of conservative is phillippe?

It seems he was in PS before 2002.

[jaichind]

Not yet confirmed it will seem, but the 428 LREM candidates announced so far won't change.

If anyone is interested Libé have an interactive map of where LREM have announced candidates. I think you can start to get a decent picture of where the left might hold on from that.

http://www.liberation.fr/apps/2017/05/circonscriptions-en-marche-candidats/

A lot of incumbents in both PS and LR also feel pretty confident about their chances as they see the LREM candidates as being complete nobodies, and LREM don't have anything like the ground game.

Yes, this is what I figured.  It would be interesting to see how this plays out and if the Macron name is enough for LREM to win a large number of seats despite no ground game nor name recognition of most candidates.  If it were to work then now, during the honeymoon, would be time for it to work.  I think it still would depend on who the PM is.

[jaichind]

It seems LREM nominated more candidates recently to its list. Any LR defectors in there ?

[jaichind]

LREM will not present a candidate in 55 constituencies.
So no LREM candidate face to Riester (LR), Le Maire (LR), Apparu (LR), Le Foll (PS), Touraine (PS), El Khomri (PS), ...

Why are they doing this?  Did they make tactical deals with the existing LR or PS incumbent ?

[jaichind]

Harris Poll (post Edouard Philippe appointment of PM)

LREM    32 (+3)
LR-UDI  19 (-1)
FN         19 (-1)
FI/PG     15 (+1)
PS-PRG    6 (-1)
EELV       3 (-)
DLF         3 (-)
PCF         2

PS-PRG-EELV together form 9% which seems to low to get to second round in a meaningful number of seats.

[jaichind]

According to this website, that would mean 427 deputies for LREM / MoDem. Of course it's just a national projection, every constituency has a different local context.

Wow.  In all three scenarios PS gets wiped out ending up with single digits in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

PS is 5 points above its score in the Harris poll

That's partially because Harris counts PS and EELV separately (together they would have 9 %).

Right, but since EELV and PS will face on in more than 400 constituencies it doesn't make sense to do that.

Poll, Harris Interactive, Bouches-du-Rhône, 4th (13-04)

Mélenchon (FI): 35%
Versini (LREM): 25%
Menucci (PS): 13%
Marti (FN): 12%
Biaggi (LR): 9%

Second round between Mélenchon and Versini, Mélenchon wins between 52% and 60%

(this poll is really close to the projection made by the website that I mentioned earlier)

Wait.  I thought PS and EELV have an alliance? Or is that off ?

[jaichind]

They have an alliance for around 100 constituencies. EELV endorses 52 PS candidates, PS endorses 49 EELV candidates.

I cannot believe this. PS is about to face total wipe-out and single digit seats and they cannot get a total alliance with EELV in all seats.

[jaichind]

OpinionWay

LREM: 28% (+1 since last week)
LR: 20% (=)
FN: 19% (-1)
FI: 15% (+1)
PS: 10% (-1)

Seats (based on the 535 seats in metropolitan France)
LREM: 310-330 (+30)
LR: 140-160 (-10)
PS: 25-30 (-15)
FI: 25-30 (+5)
FN: 10-15 (=)

Historically has PS support on the first round been quite uniform or not?  I find it hard to believe with a vote share of 10% PS-PRG-EELV can win 25-30 seats especially with EELV running against PS in a good chunk of the seats.  The only way to explain it is if PS has a couple dozen strongholds where support has not drifted to FI or LREM AND LREM happens to have a weak candidate for the second round.

[jaichind]

Harris poll

LREM-MoDem          31  (-1)
FN                           19
LR-UDI                    18
FI                            14 (-2)
PS-PRG                     7 (+1)

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll

LREM-MoDem    29
FN                     17
LR                     15 (not sure if this includes UDI)
FI                      14

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll

LREM-MoDem    29
FN                     17
LR                     15 (not sure if this includes UDI)
FI                      14

This is a "wish of victory" poll, not voting intentions

Thanks for clarifying.  It seems Reuters also got it wrong just like me as well. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN18P19A?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=592c238804d30173113840dc&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

[jaichind]

Kantar TNS France poll





Looks like PS-EELV will not do that badly in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron’s party La Republique en Marche is set to win an absolute majority in June parliamentary elections, according to a projection by OpinionWay based on polling data.
Voter support for La Republique en Marche in first round of elections climbs to 29%, up 1 point from May 25 poll
La Republique en Marche projected to get 335-355 seats of the 577 seats in France’s National Assembly
Support for Republicans and partner UDI stable at 20%
Republicans, UDI projected to get 145-165 seats
Support for National Front party of Marine le Pen falls 1 pt to 18%
National Front projected to get 7-17 seats
Support for La France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Melenchon falls 2 pts to 13%
La France Insoumise projected to get 24-31 seats
Support for Socialist party and allies falls 1 pt to 9% 
Socialist party and allies projected to get 20-35 seats

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron’s party La Republique en Marche and partner MoDem would get 31% of the vote in the 1st round of parliamentary elections in June, according to a poll by Harris Interactive for LCP.
Support stable from May 29 poll
NOTE: France’s National Assembly has 577 seats
Support for National Front of Marine Le Pen falls 1 pt to 18%
National Front projected to get 8-22 seats in parliament
Republicans and partner UDI stable at 18%
Republicans, UDI projected to get 135-150 seats
Support for France Insoumise party of Jean-Luc Melenchon slips 3 points to 11%
France Insoumise projected at 15-25 seats
Socialist party, PRG support climbs 1 points to 8%
Socialist party, allies projected at 30-44 seats

[jaichind]

I just noticed that in the latest Opinion Way Poll the left wing parties (LO, NPA, PCF, FI, ECO, EELV, PS, PRG, DVG) have 29% combined, as much as the centrist EM/MoDem. It's kinda stupid that they for one reason or the other don't work with each other to push for the common left course.

But could you not make the same argument about the sum of the LR+UDI and FN vote shares.  Sure, there overlap between LR and FN is not large in terms policy but on the other hand the level of diversity of views between LR and FN are about the same as the diversity of views of all the Pan-Left parties.

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France

LREM: 29.5% (= since a week ago)
LR: 23% (+1)
FN: 17% (-1)
FI: 12.5% (+1)
PS: 8.5% (-0.5)

Seats projection
LREM: 385-415
LR: 105-125
PS: 25-35
FI: 15-22
FN: 5-15
Others: 3-7

Turnout: 60%

LREM is actually down 1.5% from the previous Ipsos poll earlier in the week although it is flat from a week ago,.

[jaichind]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN18X171?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5936eecf04d30144b0558679&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

France's Macron set for biggest majority since De Gaulle: poll

Reuters cites the Ipsos poll and says that ~400 seats would be the largest majority since De Gaulle.  My question is: Is not the Center-Right Bloc of 1993 elections a even larger majority.  Granted it is several parties but the Center-Right in 1993 ran as a bloc, I believe.  Just like now LREM-MoDem is running as a bloc.