UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[jaichind]

SWINDON - CON HOLD, swing to Labour of 4%

Much better than any model I know.  Exit poll seems more realistic now.  

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets moves more toward LAB although still a bit better than exit polls for CON

CON    326
LAB     250
SNP      38.5
LIB       13.5

[jaichind]

Washington and Sunderland West shows another swing to the Tories. If this is in a safe seat... then what do the marginals look like?

It may be that Tories' gains are distributed much less efficiently. Winning in Leave areas where Labour hold on anyway, losing (as in: swing to Labour) in areas that are less Leave or Remain and more marginal.

Which was the assumption many, including me, made about LAB vote share increases.  Of course we need to see some marginal results.

[jaichind]

RECOUNT IN HASTINGS AND RYE

Disaster for CON.  Of course the recount could be for saving deposit.

[jaichind]

Given these swings then where are the LIB  going to gain seats to get up to double digits ?

[jaichind]

Possible Labour gain in Bury North

Ashcroft model has this one tie between CON-LAB based on its 2016 model which has CON at 350 seats.

[jaichind]

Nuneaton is calming me down...

LAB beat the Ashcroft 2016 model by 3.6 and CON beat the model by 1.4.  This would seem to imply CON at around 340 seats.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets moves more toward LAB although and SNP dropping

CON    323
LAB     253
SNP      35
LIB       13.5

[jaichind]

It seems CON+LAB vote share will exceed 1979 levels

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets now pretty close to exit polls

CON    318
LAB     258
SNP      35
LIB       14

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets now has CON below exit polls and SNP falling

CON    312
LAB     266
SNP      34
LIB       14

[jaichind]

Rutherglen & Hamilton West result in Scotland does not seem to show a surge to LIB that exit poll is projecting.

[jaichind]

Again, LIB vote in Scotland is nowhere.  I do not see how they gain seats in Scotland at a level anywhere to get LIB to 13-14 seats

[jaichind]

LIB DEMS win in Dubartonshire East

Wow.  I guess exit polls were right that there is a LIB revival in Scotland in certain districts.  I still doubt LIB goes above 10 seats overall.

[jaichind]

Cable back in

[jaichind]

Is there any reason for the DUP surge? I thought they would perform weakly, seeing their lackluster results in the NI assembly election.

Seems like the one bit of good news for Tory is the DUP surge in NI.....

And the SF surge in NI

[jaichind]

Survation did it again just like 2015 when they got it right in their unpublished poll.  

[jaichind]

PROJECTED VOTE SHARE: CON+3

CON 43 (6)
LAB 40 (10)
LD 8 (0.1)
UKIP 2 (-11)
GRN 2 (-2)

SURVATION GETS IT RIGHT AGAIN!

Largest for CON+LAB vote share since 1970

[jaichind]

Sky News forecast: Tories 315-321 seats.

With DUP at 10 seats, SF at 7 and Speaker 1 that should be enough for CON-DUP majority.

[jaichind]

it seems that the polls where not that far off but it many pollsters did not believe in the youth turnout surge plus over-learning from 2015 

[jaichind]

Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

On thing that was always weird to me was that the 1945 result was considered a shock.  It seems that in 1943-1945 LAB was well ahead of CON in the polls but it seems that the Churchill and CON were convinced that they would win.  I assume the reason for this was that  Churchill was convinced the personal vote for him would overcome the party poll deficit. 

[jaichind]

One thought I had about this election is that there was a consensus that  Brown should have called an election after the 2007 Labour conference.  Failure to do so dogged him the next few years and setup defeat in 2010.  Perhaps given what happen to May in 2017 how Brown handled or should have handled the  2007 Labour conference might now be viewed differently?