Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

BN seems to have beaten back the PAS storm Terengganu.  Out of the 8 seats it is BN 5 PAS 1 so far.

[jaichind]

BN 46 PH 39 PAS 2 Pro-PH Ind 1

[jaichind]

How are the results when compared to your model @jaichind?

In Peninsular Malaysia par for PH, slight over performance for BN and under performance for PAS.

In Borneo clearly PH over-performing to my model but we have very few calls in Sabah but what is there now is better for PH than my model.

[jaichind]

I would be very nervous right now if I were Razak.  Even if BN pulls out a majority he lost a bunch of seats and UNMO will most likely dump him as leader.

[jaichind]

In Sarawak seat P203 Lubok Antu an unknown independent is ahead in a close 3 way race over BN and PKR.   If he wins that would be another target of poaching by both sides.

[jaichind]

I think if I were BN this would be a good time for those blackouts to begin (there were a bunch them in 2013 but it was really never proved that they were related to any real cheating.)

[jaichind]

BN 49 PH 46 PAS 3 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

Sarawak right now is BN 17 PH 10 Ind 2 with outstanding.  One of the 2 outstanding has PKR well ahead.  The Sarawak result this year it a an unexpected disaster for BN.  This is ironic well all the media coverage so far has been about how Sarawak does not care about the various BN corruption scandals and that they will vote BN for sure (except for the Chinese seats.)

[jaichind]

Mahathir's son Mukhriz Mahathir is also ahead in his race in Kedah. 

[jaichind]

All signs are that PH and PAS doing well in Kedah and BN under-performing  in unofficial results.

[jaichind]

MCA and MIC facing wipeout.  The BN gerrymandering made all their seats worse in an attempt to protect UNMO seats.  Not sure how many UNMO seats were saved there but MCA and MIC got killed.

[jaichind]

Sarawak done:  BN 19 PH 10 Ind 2.  I was wrong about that PKR guy ahead.   That seat was called for BN just now.

[jaichind]

BN 54 PH 51 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

Rest of seats have more and more of a PH lean outside of Sabah and Kelantan.  Kelantan should most go BN but Sabah seems like PH will make a lot of gains.  BN running out seats to win to get to majority.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

[jaichind]

The MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) is fairly flat which is a surprise.  Given there is a good chance of a hung parliament I am surprise there is no selloff

[jaichind]

 
Sabah will also see state elections as well.  For the  Tambunan seat we will most likely see a 3 brother election of the Kitingan clan.


PBS founder and former CM and now DCM Joseph Pairin Kitingan will run representing PBS as part of BN.  STAR founder Jeffrey Kitingan who formed PBS along with his brother back in the 1980s but have since broke with his brother and went over to the opposition will also run.  It seems a third brother Crispin Kitingan who has been not as involved in politics will also run in the same seat representing WARISAN.


Left to right Joseph Pairin Kitingan, Jeffrey Kitingan, Crispin Kitingan.

This is the first election I have seen where all 3 major candidates are brothers.

In the end  WARISAN did not nominate Crispin Kitingan so we will not have a brother vs brother vs brother race.  BUT  WARISAN instead nominated Justin Alip who is the brother-in-law of both Joseph Pairin Kitingan and Jeffrey Kitingan.  Justin Alip was a key lieutenant of  Joseph Pairin Kitingan until Jan of this year when he defected from PBS to  WARISAN.

So instead of brother vs brother vs brother we will have brother vs brother vs brother-in-law.

So far it is

BN-PBS Joseph Pairin Kitingan 4036
USA-STAR  Jeffrey Kitingan 4777
WARISAN Justin Alip 1122

It seems PBS founder and DCM (and former CM) Joseph Pairin Kitingan will be defeated in his seat if this trend holds.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

Nope.  I was not even close.  My model called for PH 23% BN 46% PAS 31%.  The PAS vote held up but it seems there was a massive swing away from BN to PH.

[jaichind]

PH wins P2 Kangar in Perlis.  This is the fist time that BN has lost a Perlis seat since like ever.

That's a surprise. I don't think anyone called that.  Did you see that coming @jaichind?

Nope.  I was not even close.  My model called for PH 23% BN 46% PAS 31%.  The PAS vote held up but it seems there was a massive swing away from BN to PH.

Kangar is the state capital.  I'm guessing this seat should be suburban instead of rural

Perhaps. Although BN  Perlis totally under performed in the other 2  Perlis  seats and nearly lost one of them.  This feels more like a  Perlis swing against BN. 

[jaichind]

BN 53 PH 51 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

One BN seat got uncalled ...

[jaichind]

If you look at the called seats in Peninsular Malaysia I would say BN is performing according to par relative to my model.  If you look at unofficial results then they are below par.  With Sarawak going far worse than BN could have imagined and unofficial results Sabah not going well for BN, BN is in very big trouble.  I think the odds now are more likely than not they fall below PH in total number of seats.  The question might soon become: Will PH get a majority on its own?

[jaichind]

Negeri Sembilan has fallen, claims Harapan

10.05pm: (Unofficial) In Seremban, Negeri Sembilan Harapan chief Aminuddin Harun declares that a "tsunami rakyat" has swept through the state

Interesting as we haven't had too many results from Negeri tonight..

It looked like at least in the state seats BN fell apart in Negeri Sembilan.  I expected the 8 seats to go BN 5 PH 3 (mostly due to gerrymandering) and it seems it will more likely go BN 4 PH 4.  But at the state level it seems the gerrymander failed and BN fell apart.

[jaichind]

BN 53 PH 55 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

I think PAS is ahead in at least 4 more seats in unofficial count.  It seems BN even going above 100 seats seems unlikely now.

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

That will be hard because some of the malaportionment is part of the constitution  - Sabah and Sarawak by law need more seats they they should have. But I suspect PH will try to either reapportion the peninsula or add more seats overall. Not only as part of good government - something they ran on, but also to  build some institutional advantage for themselves as you do in these more illiberal democracies.  

I agree on Borneo seats.  But even within Borneo the seat sizes tend to have large deviations.  Same is true to less extent in Peninsular Malaysia.  All PH has to do is: Number of seats in Peninsular Malaysia is proportional to population and same within Borneo, even if the seat sizes within Borneo are small, as per the Constitution, as you point out, the BN advantage will mostly disappear.    

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.

Sure.  I was more talking about a pre-election alliance between BN and PAS if PH wins a majority and "fixes" a lot of the malapportionment in seats.