Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

When is the final filing deadline?

10/10

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

[jaichind]

I hope it's right (not that I am putting any stock in it whatsoever...)

Yeah, as a rule one does not want to put too much stock in a poll that is being announced with a cartoon picture with spaceships.

[jaichind]

Out of the 289 seats CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP members have consolidated into 1 candidate in 241 of them.  In around 55 of those 241 seats HP is not running either so they become de facto joint opposition candidates to LDP.  In 5 seats this Left bloc are not running and in de facto terms back the HP candidate against LDP.  I think by 10/10 the goal is for CDP-SDP-JCP plus various ex-DP independents to from a front in all 289 seat (minus the 5 they leave to HP by themselves.)

[jaichind]

Yomiuri  poll (diff from late Sept when HP was formed with Koike as leader but CDP not formed yet)

Abe approval 41(-2)/46(--)

Have hope for LDP Yes/No 41/43
Have hope for HP Yes/No  36/56
Hope hope for CDP Yes/No 28/64

PR vote

LDP     32 (-2)
KP        6 (-1)
JRP       3 (+1)
HP      13 (-6)
CDP      7 (new)
SDP      1 (--)
JCP       4 (-1)

Looks like CDP gains from everyone but especially HP which last poll pretty much pull in most of the DP vote.

Abe approval numbers a problem for LDP.

[jaichind]

Ex-DP MP 原口 一博(Haraguchi Kazuhiro) of  佐賀(Saga) 1st district ran a good con on everyone.  Back in 2014 he barely won his seat DP 47.5% LDP 46.1% JCP 6.4%.  This time around he first agreed to run on the HP ticket knowing that is the best way to avoid a separate HP or JRP candidate.  Then a couple days before the nomination deadline he then broke with HP to run as an independent even though he indicated that he was leaving on friendly terms.  Then JCP withdrew its candidate as part of, what I am sure was a prior deal between Haraguchi and JCP.  So through various deals he triangulated  to a point where he will face the LDP candidate 1-on-1.

[jaichind]

Koike open to backing PM from LDP.  This is the opposite of Koizumi's 2001 slogan "vote LDP so I can destroy LDP" where it is now Koike 2017 "vote for the anti-LDP to get a LDP government" 

[jaichind]

Mainichi Sunday magazine (which is usually not that politically serious) came out with a poll

 

that indicated a surge in support for CDP an fall in support for HP in Tokyo.  Namely CDP 13.5% HP 14.7% with 21.4% undecided.  Not clear what support for LDP KP and JCP are.

Detailed version of this poll for Tokyo PR are

LDP    28.7%
KP       6.2%
JRP      1.3%
HP     14.7%
CDP   13.5%
SDP     1.6%
JCP    12.7%

Undecided 21.4%.  LDP-KP looks about right.  Poor result for HP and great result for CDP.  JCP also a bit higher than expected.

[jaichind]

Projection from 和子夫人(Madam Kazuko) who is famous for being the most accurate forecaster in 2009 but have been more off last few election cycles.  Her forecast has LDP KP and JCP doing poorly must imply she expect a turnout surge that helps HP CDP

              District    PR     Seats      Implied PR vote
LDP          162         62      224             31.5%
KP               7         23        30             13.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              9         10        19               7.0%
HP             65         43      108              23.0%
CDP           14         21        35              12.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.5%
JCP              0         15       15                9.5%
Ind(LDP)      5           0         5      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(Oppn)  26           0       26     (ex-DP ex-LP or plus various anti-LDP elements)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

On PR it feels right to me on a high turnout election although I still think HP and CDP are too high and JCP too low.   Just like other anti-LDP projections this seems to assume a very solid a tactical voting between the HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP blocs at the grassroots level which I find unlikely.

[jaichind]

My current best guess on results.  LDP-KP loses seats in a higher turnout election (59%).  LDP-KP-NPD plus LDP rebels gets 287 out of 465 seats, a solid 10+ seats below 2/3 majority.  Some tactical voting between HP-JRP and CDP-SDP-JCP but not enough to win some key marginal seats.

              District    PR     Seats             PR vote
LDP          189         61      250             31.8%
KP               9         23        32             12.7%
NPD             0           1         1               0.4%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP              8         13       21                8.3%
HP             41         38        79              21.1%
CDP           13         21        34              11.9%
SDP             1           1         2                1.9%
JCP              1         18       19               11.0%
Ind(LDP)      4           0         4      (LDP rebels or pro-LDP independents)
Ind(HP)        2           0         2     (pro-HP ex-DP independents w/o support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(DP)      19           0       19     (ex-DP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
Ind(LP)        2           0         2      (pro-HP ex-LP independents with support of JCP-SDP)
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

[jaichind]

So I see parties on taking a stance on the "Consumption tax raise". Is this the same consumption tax raise they were discussing 3 elections ago? Have they been putting it off that long? Or is this a new raise and they do it every couple of years?

The consumption tax was 5%.  A law passed by DPJ and supported by LDP targeted raised that to 10% with it going to 8% in early 2014 and then 10% in early 2015.  This decision was critical in turning DPJ's 2012 defeat into a landslide defeat.   After the 2014 increase to 8% the economy fell into recession so Abe used it as an excuse to call and early election in late 2014 on the issue of delaying the 10% in early 2015.   He won and the tax increase from 8% to 10% was delayed to early 2017.  Then for the 2016 Upper House elections Abe ran on delaying that tax increase to early 2019 and won.  Now the debate is if the 2019 tax increase revenue should be used for child care (as opposed to deficit reduction) (LDP KP) or just canceled all together (HP JRP DCP JCP).

[jaichind]

Professor 児玉克哉(Kodama Katsuya) who has a reasonable record as forecaster came out with his projection which has LDP falling below majority by itself although with LDP-KP with bare majority.
The high implied vote share for KP and JCP seems to indicate a lower turnout election where LDP is beaten in the district seats due to soild anti-LDP tactical voting by JRP HP CDP JCP and it seems in some cases defections from KP.

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          160         63      223             32.5%
KP               9         25        34             14.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            13         13        26               8.5%
HP             79         38      117             21.0%
CDP             3         14       17                8.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.5%
JCP              1         22       23               13.5%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

Abe approval curve. Clearly under water and a good deal worse than the 45/40 when he won the 2014 elections in a landslide.  Of course I would wait for the final NHK poll.  That should clarify the direction we are headed.

[jaichind]

Amazing that the DPJ are engaging in yet *another* harebrained scheme to oust the LDP. This'll work for sure though. Absolutely.

This is more of a factional war within the LDP that just happens to be taking place outside of the LDP.

If the projections are anything close to correct, I think Koike becomes the next PM when a large anti-Abe contingent of the LDP that is currently within the party backs her for PM after the election. Then HP probably eventually merges into the LDP, with some pro-Abe members of the LDP possibly leaving to sit in opposition. It's possible if HP does not merge into the LDP that this breaks the LDP permanently, but either way there will be a "permanent majority" party (just a question of whether that party uses the name LDP or the name HP). If Koike fails to be elected PM this time, it's hard to see how the end result is anything other than HP fizzling.

All this seems possible of LDP-KP falls below majority.  I think if LDP get hammered but wins a majority by itself or at least a majority with KP, then ABe will stay on for a while before being pushed out by or at the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election.  I doubt that in such a situation the LDP will defect en masse to Koike for the simple reason that Koike is not that popular in the LDP.  One knows this from the low number of LDP defectors to HP this election cycle.  If LDP-KP fail to win a majority then there will be all sort of schemes.

One trick that Koike has been playing is that by not having a PM candidate they are dangling that fact to get some pre-election support.  One thing HP is saying is that they do not rule out voting for the leader of KP for the PM candidate if HP fail to win a majority on its on.  Its message to KP is: "hey, tell your votes to vote for HP and the more HP MPs the more vote the KP leader might get in the vote for PM in the diet and this will add to the social respectability of KP."

[jaichind]

Other political analyst projections

鈴木哲夫 (Suzuki Tetsuo): LDP 235 KP 35 HP 93 JCP 23 DCP 26 SDP 2 JRP 22 NPD 1 Ind/other 28
角谷浩一(Koichi Koko): LDP 218 KP 34 HP 91 JCP 30 DCP 38 SDP 2 JRP 24 NPD 1 Ind/other 27 
三浦博史(Miura Hiroshi): LDP 260 KP 34-35 Opposition 170-171

[jaichind]

Latest JX poll for Tokyo (confirming the CDP surge that Mainichi Sunday magazine reported)

LDP   29 (+1)
KP       6 (+1)
HP     18 (-11)
CDP   18(new)
JCP     7(-3)

CDP surge coming at the expense of both HP and JCP.

Holy sh**t, it's happening.

If true then this will work to the advantage of LDP-KP.  In Tokyo's 25 districts, other than the 5 solid LDP seats, the generic vote at rest of the district seat was thought to be

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         40
CDP       20

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          45
JCP         15

But with this CDP surge it looks more like

(if CDP or pro-CDP ind were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP         35
CDP       25

(if JCP were running for Left Front)
LDP-KP   40
HP          40
JCP         20

In which case LDP will win the large majority of seats.  I think it might turn into LDP 15 seat HP 7 seats DCP 3 seats or even worse for HP.  So this sort of DCP surge works against HP and in favor of LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Are we going to expect Nippon Ishin no Kai to sweep Osaka?

Also, what is Okinawa politics like at this level? Do they elect ant-American or left Diet members

In Osaka I do expect JRP to make gains.  Of course understand that out of the 19 Osaka seats, KP is running in 4 of them.  JRP and KP have an alliance at the local level and LDP and KP have an alliance at the national level.  So the net effect is that neither LDP or JRP runs in these 4 seats.  Even DCP does not run there given the relative positive relationship between the old DP and KP.  Only the JCP runs there to represent the Left Front.  In these 4 seats it is the battle of social outcasts (out of all the parties KP and JCP are the most socially unacceptable) but KP is sure to win.

So LDP-KP is has a minimum of 4 seats out of Osaka.  In a JRP surge scenario based on its alliance with HP  they can potentially compress LDP down to 2 seats.  DCP has the edge in a 3 way LDP-JRP-DCP district and most likely will win it with JCP support.   So out of the 19 Osaka seats JRP might get up to 12 seats versus 5 in 2014.

As for Okinawa there is still an anti-base majority against the LDP.  Even the local branch of JRP which is based on the LDP Right wing splinter POR is mostly anti-base but very anti-JCP.  The anti-base bloc is based on various local Left parties, JCP, and ex-DP.  HP seems neutral in this and will mostly back JRP.  In the Okinawa 1st district it will be LDP vs JCP vs JRP which JCP won in 2014 in a similar 3 way race.  In the other 3 districts the anti-base bloc {SDP, ex-LP ind, OSMP backed Ind) will sweep to victory over LDP with JRP-HP mostly neutral with even some tacit support.  At this stage any bloc that is against the base will win.  So strong is this tide JCP will most likely win reelection in Okinawa 1st district as well.

[jaichind]

Professor 児玉克哉(Kodama Katsuya) who has a reasonable record as forecaster came out with his projection which has LDP falling below majority by itself although with LDP-KP with bare majority.
The high implied vote share for KP and JCP seems to indicate a lower turnout election where LDP is beaten in the district seats due to soild anti-LDP tactical voting by JRP HP CDP JCP and it seems in some cases defections from KP.

              District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          160         63      223             32.5%
KP               9         25        34             14.0%
NPD             0           1         1               0.5%  (Hokkaido regional LDP splinter, pro-LDP this time)
JRP            13         13        26               8.5%
HP             79         38      117             21.0%
CDP             3         14       17                8.0%
SDP             1           0         1                1.5%
JCP              1         22        3               13.5%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

I don't think that the CDP will only win 3 districts. Considering that CDP will win at least 2-3 Hokkaido seats (due to lack of HP and JCP candidates, LDP's unpopularity in the state), Professor Kodama's prediction suggests that Yukio Edano (Saitama 5th), Akira Nagatsuma (Tokyo 7th), Nishimura Chinami (Niigata 1st), Shoichi Kondo (Aichi 3rd), Hirotaka Akamatsu (Aichi 5th), and Kiyomi Tsujimoto (Osaka 10th) will all lose their District Seats.

The only possible scenario of CDP winning only 3 districts is a LDP landslide at the expense of CDP-HP split (maybe 270+ seats), but this Professor rather predicted a huge HP surge.

I totally agree with you.  The only other explanation is that he has an obsolete list of candidates from a week ago when a lot of the CDP candidates (like in Hokkaido) did not join CDP yet and were planning to run as ex-DP independents.    But if that were the case then his projection should have a lot more than 23 independents winning.  So it seems that his projection somehow has ex-DP and not HP votes someone being so aligned with HP that they will vote LDP just because the candidate in question is not nominated by HP.  But that is unlikely because these same ex-DP and now HP voters just a few weeks ago were pro-DP and anti-LDP voters.  So in the end this scenerio seems like a Koike dream scenario where both LDP and CDP does badly when in reality both cannot simultaneously be true expect in Koike's ideal dream world.   

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll versus early Oct

Abe approval/disapproval  37(--)/43(-1)

Party support



LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new) 
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

Seems to fit the narrative of CDP gaining from HP and JCP.

So Abe will go into this election with a NHK Aoki index of 68.2 which implies defeat against an united opposition or a marginal victory against a splinter opposition.  So it seems Abe will lose his 2/3 majority for sure but should win a majority.

[jaichind]

Fuji evening paper projection which is much more pro-LDP.  It seems to show HP falling apart and CDP surging and as a result LDP is able to pick off a bunch LDP-HP marginal seats.  KP and JCP good performance also indicates a low turnout election.



             District    PR     Seats         Implied PR vote
LDP          215         61      276             31.5%
KP               9         26        35             14.5%
JRP              8          9        17               6.0%
HP             23         29        52             16.0%
CDP             9         27       36              15.5%
SDP             1           1         2                2.0%
JCP              1         23       24              14.0%
Ind            23           0       23    most likely something like 4 pro-LDP 19 anti-LDP
------------------------------------------------
              289        176      465

[jaichind]

LDP   31.2 (+0.4)
KP      3.8 (---)
JRP     1.3 (+0.3)
HP      4.8 (-0.6)
DP      1.6(-2.3)
CDP    4.4 (new) 
SDP    0.5 (-0.1)
JCP     2.7 (-0.6)

DP means ex-DP independents?

Tintrlvr got it right. DP is still a party but just not running in the election.  The poll is a "which party do you support" and not "which party do you want to vote for on the PR ballot" where DP would make  no sense.

[jaichind]

福岡 (Fukuoka) which is in Southern Japan PR poll

LDP   30.0
HP     11.5
KP       6.5
CDP     6.5

Frankly this poll should also have LDP worried.  In places like 福岡 (Fukuoka) LDP-KP PR vote should be in the low 50s.  福岡 (Fukuoka) is more anti-LDP than most in Southern Mainland Japan but Southern Mainland Japan is usually a LDP clean sweep except for isolated spots. 

[jaichind]

Politico like political website go2senkyo poll relative to early Oct

Abe approval/disapproval 45(-2)/54(+2)




"Hope" for HP  Yes/maybe/No  23(-3)/26(--)/51(+3)
"Hope" for HP in Toyko 25/24/51
HP ratings drop and it seems is not that strong in Tokyo




"Hope" for CDP  Yes/maybe/No   28/26/46
CDP now seems more popular than HP




"Hope" for CDP pretty strong in 北海道 (Hokkaido)  and  東海 (Tokai)  where DP was strong and weaker in 九州 (Kyūshū)  近畿 (Kinki)  and 北関東 (North Kanto)




Vote for district seats
LDP   38(-2)
HP     15(-8)
CDP   15(new)
HP's fall has to be a concern now for anti-LDP forces unless CDP voter vote tactically to defeat LDP




PR vote
LDP    35(-2)
HP      21(-6)
CDP    24(new)

[jaichind]

"Leaked" LDP poll from 10/7-10/9.  LDP polls usually underestimate LDP as to lower expectations so  one should view this poll as a floor for LDP

LDP  239
KP     34
NPD     1
JRP    25
HP   100 
CDP   29
SDP     2
JCP    22 
Ind    13  (most likely something like 3 pro-LDP 10 anti-LDP )

Looks like the surprise here is how strong JRP is.  25 seats for JRP means they will sweep Osaka or get to around 10% of the PR vote.  Either one would be a victory for JRP.