Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

Out of 289 district seats DP has candidates for 210 seats and plans on 233.  JCP has candidates for 260. It seems JCP is willing to withdraw candidates in some 50 or so  LDP-DP marginal seats in return for DP withdrawing their candidates in seats which JCP are very strong.  If they cannot come to such a deal I think LDP itself will get over 300 seats.

[jaichind]

One of my earlier posts on how the Japan Lower House PR section works.  It is now 176 PR seats

北海道 (Hokkaido)                               8
東北(Tohoku)                                     13
北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto)       19
南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto)  22
東京 (Tokyo)                                     17
北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu)               11
東海 (Tokai)                                      21
近畿 (Kinki)                                      28
中国(Chugoku)                                  11
四国 (Shikoku)                                    6
九州 (Kyūshū)                                   20

I like to write up how the Japan PR system works which I think is quite unique in the world. 

Japan has 180 PR seats which are split over 11 regions  (namely 北海道 (Hokkaido), 東北(Tohoku). 北関東 (Kitakanto or North Kanto), 南関東 (Minamikanto or South Kanto), 東京 (Tokyo), 北陸信越 (Hokurikushinetsu), 東海 (Tokai), 近畿 (Kinki), 中国(Chugoku), 四国 (Shikoku), and 九州 (Kyūshū))

Other than Tokyo each one of these regions has several prefectures which in turn has several FPTP districts.  Each voter gets to vote for a party on a PR list which gets aggregated at the regional level.  Then it gets allocated on PR basis.  Given the fact that the number of seats each region is different the cutoff to get seats might vary by region.

One feature of the Japanese election system is that a candidate ran run on BOTH in a FPTP seat AND on the PR list.   The idea is if such a candidate loses his or her FPTP seat he or she can still get elected on the PR list as long as the ranking they hold is high enough relative to the votes his or her party got in that region.  In fact the way this works can be fairly complicated as the party list for PR can have ties in it if the candidates involved are running also in a FPTP seats. 

The traditional PR list would be the following

Party X list
1. Candidate 1
2. Candidate 2
.
.
Y. Candidate Y

And if Party X gets N amount of the vote then we go down the list and everyone above what N% would qualify would be elected. 

The Japanese PR list allows for the following

Party X
1. Candidate 1 - pure PR list candidate
2. Candidate 2 - pure PR list candidate
3. Candidate 3 - also running in FPTP district a
3. Candidate 4 - also running in FPTP district b
3. Candidate 5 - also running in FPTP district c
4. Candidate 6 - pure PR list candidate
5. Candidate 7 - pure PR list candidate

So what happens is candidates 3 4 5 have equal ranking on the list.  If any of them win their FPTP seat then they are elected and taken out of the PR list.  If more than one of 3 4 or 5 lose their FPTP seat then their relative ranking are determined by their vote share they receive as a percentage of the winning candidate vote share.  What this system does is to encourage a candidate to be willing to run for Party X in a district where party X is weak and have low chance of winning.  The candidate can still win a seat as long as he and she is high up enough on the list and does well enough in the election with their vote share to put them higher up in the order to other losers in the same tier of the PR list.

[jaichind]

HP from the top leadership and down are mostly filled with party hoppers

小池百合子(Koike Yuriko)：JNP→NFP→LP→CP→LDP→TPFA→HP
渡辺喜美(Yoshimi Watanabe)：LDP→YP→ORA→JRP→HP
細野豪志(Hosono Gōshi)：DPJ→DP→HP
松原仁(Matsubara Jin)：LL→LDP→JRP→NFP→LP→GGP→DPJ→DP→HP
松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi): JRP→NFP→VP→GGP→DPJ→YP→PFG→HP
柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito)：DPJ→YP→UP→JIP→DP→HP
中山恭子(Nakayama Kyōko)：LDP→SPJ→SP→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
中山成彬(Nakayama Nariaki)：LDP→SPJ→JRP→FPG→PJK→HP
木内孝胤(Kiuchi Takatane)：DPJ→PLF→TPJ→PLP→JIP→DP→HP
長島昭久(Nagashima Akihisa)：DPJ→DP→HP
後藤祐一(Gotō Yūichi)：DPJ→DP→HP
笠浩史(Ryu Hirofumi)：DPJ→DP→HP
福田峰之(Fukuda Mineyuki)：LDP→HP
鈴木義弘(Suzuki Yoshihiro)：LDP→JRP→JIP→VOR→DP→HP
若狭勝 (Wakasa Masaru)：LDP→JFP→HP
行田邦子(Koda Kuniko)：DPJ→GW→YP→HP

[jaichind]

松原仁(Matsubara Jin) who just led the DP campaign in the Tokyo Prefecture elections against the Koike led TPFA also defected to HP.  It seems the entire Tokyo DP leadership is going over to HP.  A re-run of what took place in Osaka in 2012 with a good chunk of the DPJ branch of Osaka going over to Hashimoto's JRP.

[jaichind]

Political science Professor 岩井奉信 (Iwai Iensan) came out with the following projection

LDP   260-280
KP      30-33
JRP     10-15
HP      30-50
DP      60-70
SDP      2
LP         2
JCP     20-25

Which means the medium case has LDP-KP at around 302 and barely misses 2/3 majority. 

Frankly I think JRP at 10-15 is too low.  I did some simulations and unless JRP PR vote falls to something like 5% (versus something like 7%)and/or JRP falls apart in Osaka JRP should get around 11-12 PR seats and with JRP most likely winning around 5 Osaka FPTP seats out of 19 if not more JRP should be at least 15 if not 20 seats.

The rest seems plausible.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

[jaichind]

There seems to be some talks between HP and JRP about possible alliances in certain seats.  Looks like Koike is going all out to get Abe this election.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Opposition-Democrats-seek-merger-with-Tokyo-gov-s-party

Opposition Democrats seek merger with Tokyo gov's party.  he leader of the Democratic Party met with Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike Tuesday night to discuss a possible merger with her new national party, aiming to assemble a political force that can take on the dominant ruling party.

Wow.

There are also rumors that Ozawa will work to merge his LP either with DP or HP.   Ozawa and Koike go way back and Ozawa will be a pro-Koike force no matter what party he is in.

Would KP still remain loyal to LDP in that situation?

Yes.  KP pretty much is going with LDP this election cycle.  This is not certain at all next general election.  In fact the risk is the other way.  If the general election sharpens conflict between HP and KP in Tokyo there might be a break in the TPFA-KP alliance in the Tokyo Prefecture leaving Koike without a majority and needing DP and JCP to prop her up.

[jaichind]

It is said that the "Dark Lord" behind the scenes working for Koike is no other than former LDP PM Koizumi.  Koizumi junior is a rising superstar in the LDP so it seems the Koizumi clan plans to comeback to power is for Koizumi junior to work the LDP angle while Koizumi senior works out various anti-Abe forces inside and outside of the LDP.

Koizumi junior who is 36 is one of the LDP rising superstars that might become PM in 20 years or so.  The rule in LDP politics is that if you want to be PM it is best to come from a prominent and powerful political family but have your father die early.  Reason is an unwritten rule in Japanese hereditary policies is that only one member of a political family can be in politics at one time.  Sort of similar to the old English rule about only one unmarried daughter in a string of sisters can be out in society at one time.  So if your father is a MP and hold on to that position until he is in his 70s, by the time he passes away and you get in, by the time you have enough tenure as a MP it is too late for you to fight for the top job.  Unless your father dies early and you become a MP in your early 30s.  Abe and Ozawa both had this "luxury" of being a MP early in their life.   Koizumi senior was the same.  Difference here is Koizumi senior retired as PM and politics at age 63 which is fairly early and with his "political death" his son Koizumi junior was able to enter politics and become a MP at age 28.  So by the time Koizumi is in his 50s he would have the tenure and energy to fight for the top job.

[jaichind]

If there ends up being a DP-HP merger or alliance then that would mean the DP-JCP alliance is off which would put DP back to the pre-2016 strategy of a non-LDP non-JCP majority with the JCP back out in the cold again.  In some ways this might be a more viable strategy for DP since this would also mean than an DP-HP-KP alliance is possible in the future.  Main risk is the Left wing of DP is quite large and could defect to JCP leaving DP-HP-KP still behind LDP overall with JCP being a very large spoiler.  Key to avoid a large Center-Left DP rebellion against a DP-HP alliance or merger would be to get anti-JCP labor union confederation Rengo to back it since Rengo is the real paymaster behind many Center-Left DP politicians.   One hitch is that Rengo is pro-nuclear power while Koike's HP came out clearly against nuclear power.

[jaichind]

Some initial thoughts from me how the PR vote share will shake out in absence of post-Koike polls. 

First we have the 2014 vote share by PR section


Which produces this in terms of 180 PR seats by PR section


Now in 2017 there will by 176 seats so if we recalculate 2014 results based on 176 seats we get




We then had the 2016 Upper House election.  JIP had ORA split off and merged into DPJ to form DP. PFG renamed itself PJK. VPA ran as a center-left party, NPR which is a right-libertarian LDP splinter ran again, while NPB ran as a no-of-above protest party. 


If we calculated 176 PR seats based on the 2016 PR votes we get



Now on to 2017.  ORA became JRP again.   VPA and NPR mostly disappeared.  PJK looks like to be gone as well.  PLP renamed themselves as LP. Hokkaido LDP splinter NPD which backed DPJ in 2014 will now run mostly as a de facto LDP ally.  Of course we have Koike's HP.   I make assumptions that HP will gain a lot at the expense of DP in the Tokyo suburbs while gaining from both LDP and DP in Tokyo.  DP's vote will hold up more in its traditional strongholds in Northern Japan while LDP will lose less votes to HP in the LDP strongholds in Southern Japan. JRP will drop across the board but will mostly retain its Osaka base.


Which gives us the following seat distribution


One way to push up the seat count of anti-LDP parties is if SDP and LP merge into DP.  SDP and LP vote shares in most PR sections fall below the threshold to get seats and become wasted votes.

[jaichind]

Koike kicks off HP

[jaichind]

New Mainichi poll with shocking results

Abe approval/disapproval  36/42

Prefer ruling party gain seats/opposition party gain seats 34/49

PR vote

LDP    29
KP       5
JRP      3
HP     18
DP      8
LP       1
SDP    0
JCP     5

Back in 2014 Mainichi polls had

LDP    38
KP       6
DPJ    12

[jaichind]

DP Head Maehara May Allow Candidates to Stand Under Koike: NHK
Wednesday, September 27, 2017 06:21 AM
By Chris Cooper

(Bloomberg) --
Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara intends to allow his party’s candidates to join Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope if they want to, public broadcaster NHK reported

The two Japanese political parties will likely need to discuss the matter among themselves, as Maehara faces opposition internally and Koike has expressed doubts on the plan, broadcaster NHK said, without saying where it got the information

[jaichind]

Tokyo poll before Koike announced that she will lead HP



LDP     39
HP      28
JCP     14
DP        9
KP        6

Most likely have moved in HP's direction from LDP since

[jaichind]

Party positions




             North Korea         Hawkish             Increase            Nuclear
                                   Constitutional       Consumption         Power(my addition)
                                      Change                  Tax                    
LDP          Pressure               Yes                    Yes                   Yes
DP            Dialogue               No                    Yes                    No
KP            Pressure               No                    Yes                    Yes
JCP           Dialogue               No                    No                     No
JRP           Pressure              Yes                    No                     No
HP            Pressure              Yes                    No                     No

JCP is the true anti-LDP party.   JRP and HP have the same positions but any conflict between the two are all about the egos of Koike and Hashimoto.   By being for consumption tax increase LDP KP and DP are "establishment parties."  LDP JRP HP are Hawk parties while DP and JCP are dove parties.  KP is in theory dove but that is more about its pro-PRC position.  When it comes to DPRK KP is a hawk as well.

[jaichind]

Wow. This is turning into an exciting election whereas I thought a week ago it was going to be the same boring LDP-KP landslide.  While LDP-KP landslide is very possible if HP can form tactical alliance with DP and JRP without a massive defection from the DP left then there is a chance that Abe may win the Theresa May award.

As for HP it seems Koike will re-run her Tokyo Prefecture Marcron like election strategy with a bunch of defectors and political neophytes with a focus on women candidates.  Unlike Tokyo Prefecture elections it seems there have not been a large number of LDP defectors plus not having KP on her side.  So there will be no LDP meltdown unlike Tokyo Prefecture.  LDP-KP most likely will fall from mid to high 40s to low 40s but that is about it.  HP has to try to cobble an alliance of voting blocs that can match that and will most likely come up short.

[jaichind]

DP President 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) seems to be willing to run for his seat as an independent as have HP agree to back him in his district.  This is the first time I heard of a leader of a party not actually running with his/her party label.   If this is what it comes to then I think we are close to DP ceasing to exist and splitting with the 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) DP Right merging with HP and DP Left creating a new party allied with   JCP.  Key problem for the DP left is that 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) has the party seal and all the party cash.   So a DP Left party will be without resources to fight any real election.

[jaichind]

DP should blame ex-Tokyo governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) for all this.  If it was not for his scandals back in 2016 that led him to resign, Koike would never have ran for governor of Tokyo, capturing the anti-LDP vote from DP in Tokyo along the way.  There would not have been the DP Tokyo Prefecture election debacle and DP would be the main gainers from various Abe scandals.  There is no way DP could have beaten LDP in a 2017 or 2018 Lower House elections but they would be the main alternative to LDP and would have been able to build on their credible 2016 Upper House election.

[jaichind]

DP 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji)announces that DP will not become a party after this upcoming election and that exiting members will run as independents in alliances with other parties.  So I was right, this is pretty much the 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) Conservative faction of the DP taking the DP money and going over to HP leaving the DP Left with nothing.

This seems to be a mistake.  A HP-DP alliance is a much better option.   A enlarged HP with the DP money but not the cadres in DP strongholds in Northern Japan and places like 三重(Mie) and 愛知   (Aichi) is handing a large number of seats to LDP.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll (obviously before the dramatic events tonight)

District
LDP  ３１％
DP     ９％
HP     ６％
JCP    ４％
KP     ３％
JRP    ２％
SDP   １％
LP      ０％

PR
LDP ３２％
HP   １３％
DP     ８％
KP     ６％
JCP    ５％
JRP    ３％
SDP   ２％
LP     １％

Back in 2014 Asahi poll for PR was

LDP  37%
DPJ  13%
JIP     9%
JCP    6%
NKP   4%
SDP   1%
PLP    0%
PFG   0%


This is why it is unwise to just dissolve DP and merge into HP.  Many people will vote HP as the brand of Koike but at the district level HP has no real quality candidates with a cadre force to work for it for GOTV.

[jaichind]

Koike denies wanting a merger or alliance with DP.  So 前原誠司 (Maehara Seiji) might have destroyed his party for nothing.  Of course the leadership group of DP will make a make a final decision on Maehara's proposal.  But the damage is done.  Even if DP lives on various DP voters have no reason to vote for a party that the leader does not thing even needs to exist.  Their votes will scatter between HP LDP and JCP.   If enough of these votes go LDP we can see the greatest landslide in Japanese election history. 

[jaichind]

Could you explain to someone who hasn't been paying attention to this how things seem to be turning out?  Is Abe's gamble looking like it'll pay off or will it blow up in his face?

What is funny is both are possible.  Really depends on what happens the DP vote.  If they swing behind HP then this election would have blown up in Abe's face and he will lose his 2/3 majority.  LDP-KP losing their majority is not a realistic possibility.  Or if the DP vote now scatters then LDP/Abe will walk their way to a massive landslide.

[jaichind]

Could the DP Left join up with the moribund SDP? And I assume the unions will leave the DP with the Left, right?

Also lmao at Ozawa coming in to join Koike. Of course he's mates with Koike, of course.

And the DP and its predecessors may have had useless heads, but I struggle to think of one dumber than Seiji.

In theory DP Left will create a new party (without money or resources) and have an alliance with SDP and JCP.  Problem is Rengo  which is the confederation of Unions refuses to work with JCP so they can even go and back HP before backing JCP.

This is why LDP always wins.  Rengo refuses to work with JCP, KP refuses to work with JCP, DP Right refuses to work with JCP, DP Left refuses to work with Third Pole non-LDP Right wing parties.  Net result is LDP-KP just wins by default.

[jaichind]

Since calling the election Abe approval heading downward slightly