UK local elections, May 2018

[jaichind]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

[jaichind]

It seems the recent national polling has CON opening a small lead over LAB over the last couple of months.  Given the fact these seats were last fought back in 2014 would we not expect the CON to gain seats this time around?  I guess it really depends on how the 2014 UKIP vote will flow.  2017 UK national elections taught us that a UKIP collapse does not automatically help CON.

Mostly urban areas, especially London, which swung heavily towards Labour in 2017. That's the thing to be thinking about more than headline polling figures

So the assertion here is the lean of places like London and other urban areas that are voting in 2018 has trended more LAB since 2014 as to make up for the relative decline of LAB in 2018 when compared to 2014 in national polls?

[jaichind]

Its early but looking not bad for CON.

[jaichind]

The London 2014 local elections were very favorable to LAB.  I find it hard to believe they can gain that much beyond what they achieved in 2014 especially with the 2014 UKIP vote most likely going CON and Greens eating away at the 2017 UK general election LAB vote.

[jaichind]

UKIP finally wins a seat

[jaichind]

I think LAB under-performed relative to some of their partisan's expectations but I think their performance was quite credible given their relative position when compared to 2014. 

[jaichind]

Looking from the perspective of a Yankee, why is this considered a big disappointment for Labour in the UK media? They've gained 57 seats so far while the Tories lost 25.

I think there was a view among pro-LAB partisans  that there would be a massive LAB landslide over CON based on the LAB surge in London last year as well as Remain voters going en masse to LAB.  To some extent LAB did gain relative to 2014 in London but nowhere close what was hoped.

[jaichind]

The BBC projected national vote share is CON 35 LAB 35 LD 16.  I guess that is fairly in line with a small CON national lead in the polls given the fact that the areas that voted seems to have trended LAB  since 2014.