UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear about what is next for Brexit:

It seems May has until 3/25 to get her deal passed by Parliament. If so then Brexit takes place with a short delay based on the deal.  if she does not get the deal passed by the Parliament by 3/25 then there will be a vote 3/25 Parliament with the following possibilities

a) Soft Brexit, delay
b) CON hardliners provoke a General Election which I assume there will be a delay until the General Election
c) Second Referendum, delay
d) Impasse continues and non-deal at h the end of extension

Did I get the various scenarios correct ?

[jaichind]

It seems Bercow has banning another vote on May's deal unless it changes significantly which will for sure not take place by 3/29.

[jaichind]

The currency market seems to be discounting this.  After the news came out on Bercow's decision GBP fell 0.3% but came right back.  I suspect the currency markets was already pricing in May's deal not passing this week anyway so no vote does not make that much of a difference.

[jaichind]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1108415859918336000

Spoiler: She can't

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

[jaichind]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

[jaichind]

'kay


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750

I guess she could not publicly say that her plan is pretty much to blackmail all non-hardliner Brexit MPs to vote for her plan since No Deal exit becomes the only alternative. 

[jaichind]

The House of Commons voted 329 to 302 late on Monday to strip power away from May over what happens next.

[jaichind]

Does this not just come down to how many pro-Brexit LAB MPs and/or LAB MPs that represent pro-Brexit district will defect over and vote for the May plan?  My impression is that while there are a bloc of pro-Brexit LAB voters this topic if not what is important to them which means I think the number of LAB MPs that might defect could be quite small.

[jaichind]

Bercow selected eight motions on different Brexit models for debate

B – calling for a no-deal Brexit on April 12.
D – Norway Plus: calling for the U.K. to stay in the European Economic Area and rejoin the European Free Trade Association, while also adding a “comprehensive customs arrangement”
H – The same as D, but without the customs arrangement
J – Calling for the U.K. to stay in a permanent customs union with the EU
K – Labour’s proposal for a withdrawal agreement plus a customs union and close alignment to the single market
L -- Calling for a confirmatory vote in Parliament if the U.K. gets to within 2 days of a no-deal Brexit
M -- Saying no withdrawal deal should be agreed unless first approved by the public in second referendum
O – calling for a standstill agreement with EU while a broader trade agreement negotiated

[jaichind]

May Said to Say She Will Step Down Once Brexit Delivered

[jaichind]

DUP will still oppose May's deal

[jaichind]

Bercow selected eight motions on different Brexit models for debate

B – calling for a no-deal Brexit on April 12.
D – Norway Plus: calling for the U.K. to stay in the European Economic Area and rejoin the European Free Trade Association, while also adding a “comprehensive customs arrangement”
H – The same as D, but without the customs arrangement
J – Calling for the U.K. to stay in a permanent customs union with the EU
K – Labour’s proposal for a withdrawal agreement plus a customs union and close alignment to the single market
L -- Calling for a confirmatory vote in Parliament if the U.K. gets to within 2 days of a no-deal Brexit
M -- Saying no withdrawal deal should be agreed unless first approved by the public in second referendum
O – calling for a standstill agreement with EU while a broader trade agreement negotiated

Looks like all of them got voted down

[jaichind]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

[jaichind]

I thought before though Farage specifically allowed pro-Brexit Tories a free run at their constituency. I imagine he would do the same with some ERG elders (particularly the likes of Johnson who could lose his seat if BXP run there)

That is what I would figure as well.  On the other hand killing of the pro-Brexit leadership in the CON could help Brexit Party in its quest for party realignment with Brexit Party being one and only party that represents Brexit.

[jaichind]

Nigel Farage was attacked with a milkshake today.

Would this not just drive up the vote for BREXIT party ?

[jaichind]

Alastair Campbell got expelled from LAB for backing LibDems in Euro elections