Lewis is right... at the last election Schroeder, who had been written off by the polling firms after the SPD's appalling showing in Sachsen-Anhalt and by the huge lead that the Chief Redneck of Bavaria had, came back from the dead to scrape out a narrow win.
BTW 2002 was the CDU(not including the CSU)'s 3rd worst ever result... their worst ever result was in 1949 and their second worst ever result was in 1998.
There is no way that the SPD is going to win anything in Bavaria.
Trust me on this...
Actually SPD is qute competitive in urban Bavaria and have been slowing chipping away at the CSU lead over the years. Of course the 2002 Federal election campaign destroyed all that as the SPD pretty much ran against Bavaria in a desperate attempt to win the election, a gamble that worked, if just barely.