If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily. Let's hope this trend holds.
Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?
People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.
People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.
The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.
By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.
True, but hopefully most people who dislike both candidates will break against the incumbent party, like they did in 2016. We can't be certain this will be the case, but I have seen polling evidence that people who dislike both Trump and Biden would rather vote for Biden. In 2016, a lot of people seemed to have thought, "grrr, both candidates suck, might as well vote for Trump to shake things up a bit."
It's certainly true, though, that those who like Trump will vote for him overwhelmingly.
