Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[True Democrat]

Look at Delaware.

I know it's only 35% in, but Clinton's up 52-48.  I think that's bad news for Obama.

[True Democrat]

There is a possibility that Clinton will win every CD, except PA-2.

66% of Phila is in.  Hillary has 41%.

I doubt the 14th will go for her, but it's possible.

[True Democrat]

Centre is now in the Obama column, 38% in.

By 4%. The youth vote in Pennsylvania is not apparently very "hip."  That is part of the story here I think.

Nah, Centre County (and Union County) is like Athens County, Ohio. Big college town surrounded by uber-Clintonland.

Pretty much.  Though I would not have expected Penn State to as liberal as Ohio University.

[True Democrat]

Clinton's margin in Allegheny exceeded by expectations by a longshot.

[True Democrat]

The guy behind Obama looks like Larry David.

[True Democrat]

If it helps on PA-18, it does not include the city of Pittsburgh at all (nor does it include the city of Washington).

[True Democrat]

Delegate math with the real results broken down!

The current splits (Clinton minus Obama):

PA-1: -3
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +1
PA-5: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-6: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-7: -1 (closest result)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +1
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +3
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: 0 (Obama victory)
PA-17: 0 (Clinton victory)
PA-18: +1
PA-19: 0 (Clinton victory)

+5 in district delegates, +5 in at-large delegates

Some of these are not mostly in, although many (like PA-1, despite the surprising result) are, and nearly all are at 75% or more. The following could reasonably shift:

PA-3 and PA-11, although only under half reporting, are very unlikely to flip to -1 from +1.
PA-13 could flip to +1 from +3, depending on which votes are in.
PA-7 could flip to +1 from -1 based on the few remaining results; Obama's margin is quite small.
PA-6 is barely reporting at all, but 0 is highly likely.

So Clinton only came out with ten net delegates?

That's quite bad.

[True Democrat]

    *  3 delegates from CD 9
    * 4 delegates from CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19
    * 5 delegates from CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18
    * 6 delegates from CD 6
    * 7 delegates from CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14
    * 9 delegates from CD 2

From Dave.

[True Democrat]

Does anyone know which precincts are still out in Philly?

[True Democrat]

Does anyone know which precincts are still out in Philly?

I've tried to get post-certification precinct results from them, but I was basically hissed and clawed at.

Was it an old lady?