Colorado-Rasmussen: Giuliani leads Clinton by 10%, Thompson and Clinton tied

[Sam Spade]

Bubba was unpopular in Colorado IIRC.

Yep.  The halcyon days of the CO GOP.  Of course, no other polls validate this result.

I'll make a couple of comments here as to the four Rasmussen polls received today:

The Ohio and NH polls essentially match "fairly" recent iterations by other companies - thus, I see no reason to believe they're not true.  Giuliani tied with Hillary in OH, Hillary with a slight lead in NH.  Thompson performs better in Ohio and worse in NH.  Romney is the opposite (may have something to do with constant advertising).  Ohio and New Hampshire are not places where the polling tends to go faulty (2006 NH excepted) - that adds another layer of believability.

The Florida iteration comes close to matching Q - and that would in turn show a slight Clinton lead over Giuliani (and larger leads over the others).  Of course, Florida polling has more problems than answers - and this poll's internals looks pretty strange to me for a couple of reasons (not listed here).  And the usual Florida polling Dem lean would likely push that result towards a tie (Giuliani only).  Anyway, I'll simply wait for M-D here - if it validates this, then this is probably correct - if not, then no.

And if you think this Florida commentary is confusing, just wait until we get to general election polling from New Mexico and Wisconsin. 

[Sam Spade]

I agree with Sam that MD will give us a very good handle on Florida even this far out.

... if they ever do GE polls additionally to their primary polls.

They will.  Give them time - the election isn't tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Although the polls in CO usually favor GOPers by 3 or 4 points. This probably means that Thompson is gonna get beat in CO and that Guiliani is going to win by 46-53.

Not really.  That was a 2004 phenomenon only (as far as we know).  Prior to that, in every race I can remember since 1994, the polls in Colorado consistently understated GOP strength by about 3-4 points.  Granted, Colorado hatred of Clinton, esp. among the evangelicals, may have fueled this. 

In 2006, the polling average was dead-on for the Governor's race - although the individual polls varied greatly.  Same with the two major House races.

[Sam Spade]

If there is this much talk about one poll that has not been substantiated by anyone else, I can only imagine where we'll be in a few months.  Once again, the lack of understanding wrt Colorado on this forum is breathtakingly amusing.