Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

Considering the GOP got the best possible match-up in terms of winning the election, I think NJ should be moved to Likely D rather than Safe D.  I'd say Zimmer winds up losing by less than 5%

So, in other words, Zimmer will lose by double-digits.  Thanks.

NJ Repubs never lose by double digits, right around 10 pts is really the max.  I think Zimmer could definitely pull this one off, but it would take a good campaign.

It's a joke, considering your penchant for overestimating Republican chances.

I suspect Zimmer will probably run closer the worse his campaign is, so...

[Sam Spade]

Alright, I finally put up a preliminary house list... ugh.

[Sam Spade]

Pretty good list.  The only thing I would change would be VA-11 and NY-25.  I just dont see anyway Republicans hold those increasingly Dem seats without incumbents.  I would move them to lean dem pickup. 

1. NY-25:  You can certainly make a good case on that one.  Here, I am just being a tad conservative, but it could well be moved and probably will be long-term.

2. VA-11:  Have to disagree.  I know about the "trend" and let's face it, Dems selected the right candidate in Connelly over Byrne, but the fact is that this CD is still quite marginal in my book (even with the trend) and more importantly, I am not going to seriously think about moving it when the GOP candidate has $1 million in the bank.  Especially not at this early point.  You know, if the Dems would have nominated Byrne, the money factor and her weakness as a candidate probably would have had me place it on the other side of the tossup line.  Let's see, time will tell...

[Sam Spade]

Pretty good list.  The only thing I would change would be VA-11 and NY-25.  I just dont see anyway Republicans hold those increasingly Dem seats without incumbents.  I would move them to lean dem pickup. 

1. NY-25:  You can certainly make a good case on that one.  Here, I am just being a tad conservative, but it could well be moved and probably will be long-term.

2. VA-11:  Have to disagree.  I know about the "trend" and let's face it, Dems selected the right candidate in Connelly over Byrne, but the fact is that this CD is still quite marginal in my book (even with the trend) and more importantly, I am not going to seriously think about moving it when the GOP candidate has $1 million in the bank.  Especially not at this early point.  You know, if the Dems would have nominated Byrne, the money factor and her weakness as a candidate probably would have had me place it on the other side of the tossup line.  Let's see, time will tell...

If Obama comes anywhere even close to winning Virginia, he will carry VA-11 by at least 10 points, which will make it almost impossible for the Republican to win. 

When that happens, I'll change it. 

[Sam Spade]

Good predictions, just a few changes I had in mind.
I would move CO-4 to leans R and then switch MN-1 with NH-2.

In CO-04, when your own internal poll only shows you up seven, under 50%, that means you belong in toss-up.  Especially someone with a record like Musgrave - you see, McConnell in KY showing me something similar would mean Lean R, but Musgrave - no.

I feel very good about OH-15 being the top of the toss-up (or NY-25, whichever) because Kilroy's internal placed her at 47-37 over Stivers.  That should be stronger for someone who's been running for the past two years.  Whereas Musgrave at the bottom of the toss-up, fits nicely.

MN-1 vs. NH-2 has to with the PVI of the two CDs, plain and simple.

[Sam Spade]

Casayoux would be lower than he is if it weren't for the facts you mention (and his CD is more problematic, frankly).

[Sam Spade]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

[Sam Spade]

Good list. I know it is a small change but I have better feeling about the democrats prospects in Ohio 16 than in 15. I think the candidate line-up there is much better for them.

Time will tell.  Quite frankly, I consider all contenders to these two seats to be quite legit.  Moreover, both candidates have raised enough funds to be considered credible (which is really a key point this early in the campaign).  The difference therefore, is the CD itself (one is about four-five points more Republican in the PVI than the other).  Thus, the ranking - but note where both are.  At this point in the election, it is impossible to say more.

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Freshman Rep.  District leans slightly Dem, but is marginal.  Challenger is an "A"-type challenger (compare that to a lot of the seats below him or on the watch list).

Any Obama "coattails" are only noted in two places for me (until we get much closer to the election):  1) Illinois; 2) open CD's with high black populations.  Everything else is merely wishful thinking right now, imho.  There also may be a bit of reverse coattail in highly HIspanic CDs due to turnout issues, but we're not there yet to taking that into account.  Otherwise TX-23 would be higher.

[Sam Spade]

Don't you think NC-8 belongs in the Toss-Up category?  In 2006, Kissell lost by just 329 votes.  This year, he will have Obama behind in a district that is 27% black and that Kerry managed to get 45% in.  I could see both Obama and Kissell carrying NC-8 with about 50% of the vote easily.

Ya, but Kissell was one of those candidates in one of those CDs that was seriously helped by the wave - to the tune of probably about 5 points (the wave was particularly strong in that area of the world).

Historically, Hayes is one of these candidates that gets into trouble when he gets complacent - like in 2006.  I don't see him being complacent this year.

Anyway, black turnout is only part of the equation.  If I didn't think black turnout would be higher, Kissell would be lower.  We shall see.  But note where Kissell is - the distinctions between the bottom of toss-up and Lean R/D at this point in the campaign are not "that" great. 

[Sam Spade]

Your points on CT-05 and CT-04 are quite valid, although Shays will be hard to oust.  I seriously thought about putting AZ-08 higher myself, but I decided not to. 

I don't know whether White would have won in 2006 - would he have been able to get Madrid to crack for the ad Wilson got - probably not.  And otherwise overcome the wave.  If there's one CD where that might occur - it's here, but consider me ambivalent.  I should not that Novak rated this race Lean D because not having Wilson on the top might not get the requisite turnout on the East Side.  Doesn't he realize that White was the head of the Republican effort here in 2004?  Just a side comment.

Really, with a lot of these Lean Rs/Lean Ds, it's more about gauging where they should fall rather than getting it *exactly* right.

The only minor changes I might make right now as to the list since creating it is to push Sali up to the bottom of Lean R and bump Hill down a little bit within Lean D  (at least below Mitchell, maybe below Ciro).

[Sam Spade]

Updated.

[Sam Spade]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.  Same thing with Kirk in IL-10, but its not unexpected there.  Moved NY-25 and AZ-01 up the Dem takeover lists for obvious reasons.

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

Richardson has also lost a little luster wit his failed Presidential run. He and Dodd seem to be suffering in state polls because for much of the last two years, they were more focused on Des Moines than Darien or Dona Ana County, respectively.

I think the little Countrywide Mortgage issue is more of a cause for Dodd than his failed Presidential run.  I thought Richardson's drop was more recent than the last two years (and more localized, I'm pretty sure).

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Media blitzes tend to not be very effective in this part of the world unless your advertising is very effective, because the voters are too weird and independent.  Who knows, maybe it'll be different this time. 

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

Cockfighting is legal in New Mexico... and the "weak" stand, certainly, consists of buckling under and following 47 states into banning it.
Which won't happen as long as Albuquerque doesn't outvote the remainder of the state. Shame White is running in Albuquerque... elsewheres being against cockfighting would cost him votes.

I didn't know you had sympathy for cockfighters.  cool.

[Sam Spade]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

[Sam Spade]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

Yep. If I could only watch the results of two House races, I'd choose those two. If Democrats win both, they'll have a very good night. A split hints at a decent Democratic showing. A double retention suggests Republicans will hold most "Leans R" seats and will not be blown out in open seat tossup races.

Well, I wouldn't be so drastic.  After all, it is possible that one or more of the candidates has a local "fcuk up" which doesn't affect the national mood.  But on the whole, you're probably right.  Of course, that's why NJ-07 is ranked where it is and MN-03 is ranked where it is.

You're also probably right on that other thread of yours that the night won't be that good for the Dems in the House should they not win the two Ohio seats.

[Sam Spade]

Made a couple of modifications to the Senate list due to the FEC filing garbage, etc. - moved Oregon ahead of MS (Wicker) (I was planning on doing this one for a while now) and moved Texas down to safe (Noriega has absoluetly zero chance with raising that little money).

House movement will probably take me until the weekend, should I decide to make any.

[Sam Spade]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

[Sam Spade]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

I'd move NJ-03 from Tossup to Lean D. That's what I meant.

I'm suspicious of the effect of coattails in district with politically wishy-washy affluent, well-educated professionals. They may vote for Kirk as a way to keep Obama honest on taxes.

As you well should be.  Yea, I'm close to doing that myself on NJ-03 also.

I could note some of the more important House fundraising news I've read today, but that's not for this thread.

[Sam Spade]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

It's only that one poll.  I expect it to move lower on my list, frankly, and will probably do so.

[Sam Spade]

Some minor changes.  Nothing big really, however.

[Sam Spade]

Hmm... Why did you move MO-09 below MO-06? Have you bought into the "Baker is too LIBRUL to win in rural MO" buzz?

I moved it a tad too low after the primary before I read up on both candidates.  However, it still goes below Graves, sorry... 

[Sam Spade]

I should add - Luetkemeyer appears to be right type of Republican for this CD - socially conservative, economically not too conservative, more of an old-school fiscal conservative (CfG ran ads attacking him) - rural voters are dominant here.

[Sam Spade]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?