Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

You know, Lunar - I do read other websites.

[Sam Spade]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

Good question.  Rothenberg seems to think Mario is safer.

[Sam Spade]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

Good question.  Rothenberg seems to think Mario is safer.

Interesting.  A quick aside: I just checked Rothenberg's ratings and I noticed that he also ranks AK-AL as "Likely Democratic." Factoring the Palin effect and the irascible ol' devil Young's ability to squeak out wins, I've bumped this race down to the lower part of the Pure Tossup category.

Rothenberg also sees FL-24 as "Leans Democratic," which is a bit higher than I'd rank it.

Rothenberg trusts Alaska polling more than I do (which is incredibly little, except factoring that the Republican is always understimated).

He also still has PA-03 as Toss-up/Tilts R, which I disagree with.  I agree with you on FL-24.

[Sam Spade]

Hey guys, haven't been on in a while (so busy, but football will be over soon) and now I'll try to be on more often.  Sam, I agree with your analysis pretty well, but a few changes.  I think NM-02 is more likely to go Dem at this point (put it in front of the next five or six), I would move NH-01 down 2 or 3 (somehow, I think she'll pull off a win), and I think Dems will gain maybe two or three more than what you have now (17 Dem pickups, 6 GOP, for a net total of 11 Dem pickups).  Also, as far as the Boyda-Jenkins race goes, I think the debate tonite may have a major effect on the outcome of the race.

If the elections were today, the Dems would probably gain a net of 20 or so (probably 23-24 seats, while losing 3-4 to the GOP).  Rothenberg's prediction of 25-30 is possible, but I consider that the outer limit for now.  This, however, is not a *today* prediction.  Rather, it's a future one which will change as circumstances do.

MW08 and I agree on NH-01.  No more to say there.

NM-02 is a seat where the GOP is going to throw some money (and the GOP candidate has money).  Teague is from a GOP part of the CD, and that helps substantially, the question in my mind is going to be how Dona Ana goes.  Tinsley has some rep there and should perform slightly better than generic R in a even race.  How much may determine a win vs. a loss.  The internal dynamics of that seat simply favor the GOP generically.  Henceforth, tossup/Lean R.  I do suspect Teague is up a couple of points right now.

In KS-02, Jenkins has been a very impressive fundraiser and as we saw against Ryun, saved it all to the end for the last-minute bomb, which was very successful.  The DCCC will be absent here because Boyda wants it.  Boyda has shown more talent than I expected, but still... It is the closest thing to a toss-up in my mind right now.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

Mahoney is almost assuredly going down.  Watch the next thread I post.

[Sam Spade]

CO-04 probably.  PA-03, maybe.  Dems are still spending exceptionally heavy in OH-15, so I doubt things have hardened there.  MO-06, the Dems haven't spent much there and I agree with Stu that it's at Lean R.  Incumbent protection?

WI-08, I really doubt the chances, although it's better than other Dem-held CDs.  MI-07 is a complete toss-up to me.  So is OH-01, but Chabot has talent.  AL-02 and AL-05 make sense.

Oh, and the money does say something.  Garcia's (FL-25) people released a poll showing him 3 down today.  When that's the best you can do...

[Sam Spade]

Dems have thrown about 500K at Georgia.  That's good enough for me to push it into Lean, but in Senate contests, 500K is indicative of a test run to see the response (kinda like the 200K thrown into NE-02, not the 500K thrown into IN-03).

[Sam Spade]

On other thought: the DCCC has expended nearly $1 million in AZ-01 and they put up a new ad today. Is Sydney Hay holding up better than Randy Graf did?

AZ-01 is a bit different of a CD than AZ-08, imho.  Lots of moderate Republicans in AZ-08.  Of course, McCain here helps greatly.  But spending one million is a sign of something.  Especially when Fitzpatrick is not exactly short of funds.

On a completely different topic, one of the things that's annoying me this year is the increased reliance of pundits on *publicly released internals*.  To me, you only rely on them when the candidate is showing himself behind or something like that.  Any other reliance is just guessing (like my 5-point differential formula, which is probably garbage with most polls even).

[Sam Spade]

Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

[Sam Spade]

The DSCC has bought 500k in Georgia...

Dems have thrown about 500K at Georgia.  That's good enough for me to push it into Lean, but in Senate contests, 500K is indicative of a test run to see the response (kinda like the 200K thrown into NE-02, not the 500K thrown into IN-03).

Reading is your friend. 

[Sam Spade]

Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

That race was over when Pearce won the primary.

I know, I know.  But a move to Safe means that he's dead and buried, not just dead. 

[Sam Spade]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

[Sam Spade]

isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

Once again - reexamine the poll and tell me who the undecideds are.  I'm not getting ruined on my predictions like I did with Idaho in 2006 where the same thing occurred.

[Sam Spade]

Are either of these statements plausible, Sam?

1. Michael Skelly will win 47%-48% of the vote. He'll be buoyed by early voting, which will actually favor TX Dems for the first time in awhile.

Possible.  I still think Skelly's ceiling is somewhat lower

2. Nick Lampson will win by a solid margin (>4%). The VFW has backed Lampson, the NRCC has pulled out of the district, and Lampson's  numbers suggest that Olson's approvals are in the negative range.  Growing minority turnout will holster Lampson's chances. Hurricane Ike also dampened enthusiasm for Olson in a district that needs federal pork to rebuild.[/quote]

I have no clue here.  The minority factor in this CD is overrated, IMHO.  Blacks are only 9%, which is actually not that much greater from Culberson's CD.  Asians and Hispanics are the main minorities (8.4% and 20.3% respectively), but I really don't see their low-turnout tendencies changing in this election.

As for Ike, here's the key point:  There's two parts of this CD that were affected in any part by Ike.  Only one part of the county do I care about.  The Fort Bend and Brazoria parts of the county got very little, if nothing, from Ike.  The Galveston county part was always going to vote for Lampson anyways.

Rather, it's the Harris County suburban growth parts, the growth to the South and Southeast of Pasadena and Clear Lake, most importantly, that are highly Republican, and might be affected.  There are also some blue dog Democrat areas in Harris County along the bay - please ignore.

If Lampson can start flipping votes in these areas in any great numbers, then he'll certainly stand a decent chance of winning.  Problem is, I can't tell you how flippable they are.

It would be really nice to have a poll out of here.

[Sam Spade]

Robin Hayes just said that he wants Sam to move his name higher up on the list. He wants to be number one! 

No way he's getting above McMahon, sorry. 

[Sam Spade]

Just re-did Senate.  House undergoes a major renovation tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Looking forward to your House updates. It'll be interesting to see where you place MN-06.

SUSA should have a poll out tonight.

[Sam Spade]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I didn't see the poll you're referring to.

[Sam Spade]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I can't find anything on PPP's website about it.

The only thing I can find is a Democracy Corps poll of NC back in September which did 100 people per CD (roughly) and had her up 2.  I consider that garbage.

http://www.carolinapoliticsonline.com/2008/09/06/democracy-corps-nc-congressional-polling-results/

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

Kos already has R2000 doing an Alaska poll, if that's acceptable.

Yea, that's ok.

I should add that I'm little nervous about putting Colorado in Safe, because I suspect it'll be closer on election day than the polls presently are, but since the committees have pulled out and I can't see a way Schaffer actually wins, I'll stick it there.  You may see me put this in Likely however, if I get actually nervous.

[Sam Spade]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

[Sam Spade]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

You should offer some commentary for the tight races. If the Dootlittle seat goes Dem, it is going to be a 23 seat Dem pickup. I picked that number out of thin air, but it seems right.

In some of these tight races, it's tough to make really accurate commentary.  I'm not on the ground.

[Sam Spade]

Well, just explain why you call them tight, whether it be polls, money, ads, the district, tea leaves, or a random CD generator. 

Well, I can make a wild guess that if the committees are spending heavy money someplace, it's reasonably competitive.

[Sam Spade]

Changes + final predictions probably tomorrow, maybe tonight.