Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic

[Sam Spade]

Also, what did I say about not trusting exit polls in this area of the world (RI).  If Obama doesn't win Newport, that should be a shock.

[Sam Spade]

Wait for Cincy, Franklin and Cuyahoga to start coming in seriously before being depressed about it.  But the rest of Ohio (except Toledo) - ugly for Obama.

[Sam Spade]

Check out this tidbit, and this is a primary.

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That's not surprising.  Btw, Texas is far from over, unless Obama performs better same day of than in early voting, which I suspect may not be the case here.

[Sam Spade]

lol @ lying RI voters (Catholics)

[Sam Spade]

Wham.  Hispanic counties in.

Bad news for Obama: he needs to not underperform his exit poll numbers, or have >50% early votes.

Good news for Obama: Almost all of his best counties haven't reported any poll results at all.

Have any counties (except for nothing ones) reported actual numbers yet?

[Sam Spade]

Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.

[Sam Spade]

Huntsville is nearly all in (narrow Obama win b/c of the high black pop).

My bad on Ohio not having early voting, if it doesn;t. 

[Sam Spade]

Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.

I never really counted Ohio as a strong Obama state.  I always had a feeling it would go for Clinton.  Texas I was unsure about all the way, and still am to some degree, though I'm having more and more confidence that it will go to Obama.

If it isn't early voting, please ignore the above post.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know whether Franklin 55-45 Obama is enough.  Let's see about Hamilton/Cuyahoga.

[Sam Spade]

Anecdotal report:  My parents, both Obama supporters for now (my father switches back and forth) report from a 70-75% Hispanic precinct in the middle of Houston's East End (a little bit more upperclass than most).  150-25 Clinton.  Obama barely reaches viability.  Maybe through their showing up.

[Sam Spade]

Clinton is slowly but surely gaining from the Limbaugh effect in the ultra-GOP suburbs.

[Sam Spade]

Unless the precincts coming in from urban areas are unusually Clintonian areas, I think Clinton is going to win this one by a couple of three points.  I may be wrong, though.

Now focusing on anecdotal caucus reports (Sam's inspired me)

Expect most of the East End to look like that.  From what I was told, there were no problems there.

[Sam Spade]

Ohio has failed.

No, you mean Obama has failed: for the third time this campaign, couldn't seal the deal.

To Spade: Limbaugh effect?

Limbaugh told his listeners to vote for Hillary.  The effect should show up in the same day numbers, and it is.  Compare Collin, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Williamson and Montgomery, for example.

[Sam Spade]

Reminder to self - never trust RI polling.  At least I didn't this time, should have made the margin higher though...

[Sam Spade]

Guys, the Clinton stories of bad caucus results are REAL, I was precinct chair for the Republicans here, they had no clue what to do, I helped them set up and they still did it all wrong, an Obama organizer ended up running it. It was so bad.

lol - FLORIDA AGAIN!!!

[Sam Spade]

Look, folks.  This is the primary to end all primaries.  We've just begun.  Much like in Florida 2000, it's great to watch political history happen.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, it is way too early to start predicting Texas, yet.

[Sam Spade]

The margin increase for Clinton right now in Ohio is the industrial NE coming in.

[Sam Spade]

Look, with all these huge counties in Texas, you can't make predictions from them b/c you don't know where the precincts are coming from.

[Sam Spade]

Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

Shes winning Galveston last time I checked.

It's all a question of whether racist whitey will outvote blackey.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, in these big counties, we have no idea where the votes are left to be counted.  Harris County, for example, is so diverse, that future results could, quite frankly, be anything.

[Sam Spade]

The white areas of Lucas County have finally reported to put Hillary back in front.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, this race is far from over.  Obama fumbled at the goal line yet again. 

Let's face facts, this is the greatest primary ever.  We're watching political history, just like we were at 2:00 AM Election night 2000.  Enjoy it.

I know this will be hard, but I am certainly do so.

[Sam Spade]

The spin here is getting ridiculous - if it wasn't already.

[Sam Spade]

Harris is now down to 58-41.  Once again, who knows where the votes are coming from.

Looking over the results - rural SE Ohio and industrial NE Ohio don't like Obama (I didn't say blacks, you did)  But then again, that's not too big of a surprise.

The racial voting in East Texas is hilarious.  Al's going to have to get us a map.