Diaego Hotline Tracking Poll thread

[Sam Spade]

Thank god the respectable polling service Diaego Hotline is now doing a tracking poll.  These damn cheap Gallup and Rasmussen polls are horrible.

Diageo isn't worse than Gallup. That's no compliment to either from a historical standpoint, but it's true.

I can't agree with that.  Let's face it - Gallup is the gold standard of polling.  I don't remember whether Diageo did a poll in 2004 (if they did, please correct me).

It's just another data point.  Although considering it's a 300 RV a day sample, it might be a tad jumpy.

[Sam Spade]

Thank god the respectable polling service Diaego Hotline is now doing a tracking poll.  These damn cheap Gallup and Rasmussen polls are horrible.

Diageo isn't worse than Gallup. That's no compliment to either from a historical standpoint, but it's true.

I can't agree with that.  Let's face it - Gallup is the gold standard of polling.  I don't remember whether Diageo did a poll in 2004 (if they did, please correct me).

It's just another data point.  Although considering it's a 300 RV a day sample, it might be a tad jumpy.

They appear to have begun polling in 2006. But I am actually surprised to see you defend Gallup. It has the reputation, but only because it's been around for along time. Gallup has not statistically been any better than other pollsters at predicting results and is generally slightly worse than average.

Guess I'm going to have to sic The Vorlon on you here.    I respectfully disagree, but I lack the stats at my fingertips to say so at this moment. 

[Sam Spade]

Regardless of how good Gallup has been historically (and I could have sworn Verily is right), I hate their likely voter model methodology with the heat of a thousand suns.  It gets better as time goes on, but still.

Haven't they pretty much dropped their LV methodology this year (or have I missed something)

[Sam Spade]

So wait?  They're polling on weekends, but not releasing a tracking poll on the weekends?  ok... 

[Sam Spade]

Tuesday, September 9, 2008
McCain 45% (+1)
Obama 44% (nc)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker090908release.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Wait - slight? The last figures we had were McCain +1, then they didn't release over the weekend, right?

Ya, they did.  It was 45-43 Obama, then 45-44 Obama, and then today 46-42 Obama.

All three polls clearly indicate, imho, that Obama had a good day yesterday and McCain a bad one.  The key question naturally to ask, is whether this is a one-day spike or a continuation of the gradual movement backto Obama, like the movement from McCain +3 to McCain +2 we've observed roughly from Thursday to yesterday. 

That can only be answered in the next couple/few days.  So, be patient. 

[Sam Spade]

The right question is, how well has Diaego done in the past.

We have no record.  The only numbers we have were the 2006 Congressional generic numbers (not exactly the greatest measure, to put it mildly).  They were a mile off, but it was before the last minute Republican surge. 

Actually, for that period in polling, they leaned to clearly the Democratic side of the overall measure, if that's worth any comparison.

It is interesting to note, imho, that this movement towards Obama has corresponded with a move towards Republicans in terms of the generic Congressional ballot, fwiw (which is not much).

[Sam Spade]

Diageo/Hotline will delight us with weekly swing state polls starting tomorrow.

A Quinnipiac National poll will be out tomorrow too.

And a new NYT/CBS poll later today.

Ugh.

[Sam Spade]

Thursday - 18 September:

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Today's 4 tracking polls show a 47.8 - 44.3 advantage for Obama.

If we include R2000's sample from just yesterday (50-42 Obama) it would be 48-44 for Obama.

I look foward to the state polling catching up.

If the movement is real movement, then the state polling will catch up.  You read my comment earlier in the Rasmussen poll thread. Re-read it again. 

[Sam Spade]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

Er... outlier much?

Every poll has to be taken seriously in a way, bro, even if you or I think of them as junk. 

I'm pretty sure the race, right now, is Obama +3, but I want to see where it settles by next week (kinda like what I said last week when it was McCain +3).

[Sam Spade]

Its the two point move to McCain under the economy question(Now 44-41 Obama, was 44-39 Obama), that caused this bump for McCain. Seems to contradict Gallup who says this has helped Obama.

Actually, I think it's more that the Monday sample (which appeared to be strongly Obama) dropped off, and for some reason the other samples didn't show as strong of a movement afterwards.  Of course, with only 300 a day sample, the movement may be quite larger than I'm interpreting.

[Sam Spade]

Saturday, September 18, 2008
Obama 45% (nc)
McCain 44% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Sunday, September 20, 2008
Obama 45% (nc)
McCain 44% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

That's what Marc Ambinder says.

[Sam Spade]

Thursday, September 25, 2008
Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

Pro-Obama sample dropped off today.  Pro-McCain sample drops off tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Friday - September 26, 2008

Obama 49% (+2)
McCain 42% (-1)

See...    I think the next is pro-Obama, so expect a bump back.

[Sam Spade]

See...    I think the next is pro-Obama, so expect a bump back.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

The next sample off tomorrow is pro-McCain.

[Sam Spade]

See...    I think the next is pro-Obama, so expect a bump back.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 43% (+1)

The next sample off tomorrow is pro-McCain.

Sunday, September 28, 2008
Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Hmmm...  Must've been replaced by a decently pro-McCain sample (not McCain leading or whatever, just in comparison)

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Obama: 47 (nc)
McCain: 42 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Thursday, October 2, 2008.

Obama: 47 (nc)
McCain: 42 (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Friday, October 3, 2008
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 42% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Monday, October 6, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, October 7th, 2008

Obama: 45 (-1)
McCain: 44 (nc)