MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Sam Spade]

Clearly the Franken total is less biased than my results... 

[Sam Spade]

Clearly the Franken total is less biased than my results... 

Oh, I forgot about your numbers sir.

The fact that the vote numbers don't add up to the numbers that signed in is certainly fishy.  The funny thing is that Ramsey, out of all the counties, is the one place where the persons challenging the ballots actually have a slight clue as to how to do it (in other words, not a ton of ridiculous challenges).

Anyway, in total, I suspect the "actual changes" (in other words, the ones we clearly measure in my analysis, not including assumptions) from Ramsey will total about Franken +70.  It was +23 in St. Louis and is presently +18 in Hennepin (with 8% out).  The rest of the counties have been +35 Coleman roughly, with 25 of those votes coming from Becker county.

I'm still trying to figure out whether the story I have as to why I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins if Franken wins is deserving of a separate attention-whoring thread or should be just posted here.  I've been waiting patiently to throw it out, even though it's hard to do, as it still pisses me off.... (building suspense)

[Sam Spade]

The Franken camp's current calculation is that he trails Norm Coleman by 50 votes in this recount as of last night.

I should add, this line is key:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's probably where most of the additional math on my numbers is coming from.  In my opinion, a legitimate calculation from either side is, quite frankly, impossible, given the partisanness.  And obviously, we can't be perfect because we don't have access to the challenged ballots (in particular), and honestly what I saw from the Strib didn't convince me that the quality of each side's challenges was particularly greater than the other (but who knows).

However, what each partisan can do is take my base numbers (which is the best you're going to get) and impose their own viewpoints and variables on it.

[Sam Spade]

I say go for the attention-whore thread.  It's what I would do if I were in your shoes (including joining the GOP in protest).

I lean towards it too.  But only if Franken wins or gets seated or whatever.  Otherwise, it's merely something that I found about a week and a half before election day that changed some of my opinions here. (building suspense)

[Sam Spade]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

[Sam Spade]

...I will join the Republican party and become active if Franken wins...

Well, SS, I've always thought of you as a Republican.

And I've always thought of you, well...

as a worker. 

It's personal, not business, in this case.

Sam,

Why you choose a political party based on one candidate? Isn't Al Franken on the left balanced out by Jim Inhofe on the right? Is there any reason to case aside your individuality as an independent to join a marginalized political party out of spite?

It's a personal issue.  Has little to do with politics.  Has everything to do with Al Franken.  Honestly, I didn't care before I found this out and won't care (well, I care in a different way) if he's not a member of the Senate as a Democrat.

[Sam Spade]

Come on, Sam. Either tell us or don't.

Not until the race is over, sorry.

[Sam Spade]

Now why in the world would you join the New York Republican Party on account some specific dude happened to have won a majority of the Minnesota DFL's Senate Primary and then is subsequently elected by the Minnesota electorate?

Because Sam is being the attention whore he usually is and wants us to waste a thread or two massaging his ego.

Do whatever you wish.

[Sam Spade]

As of today's update...

Counties to Be Completed
Beltrami (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.
Hennepin (35 precincts) - Pretty much all precincts are located in urban Minneapolis.
Ramsey (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.  The one precinct SOS hasn't reported had 0 votes.
Rock (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Scott (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Winona (100%) - Starts tomorrow.
Wright (100%) - Starts tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Update (Using My Method)
SOS
Coleman: 1,119,878 (1,122,217)
Franken: 1,122,413 (1,124,840)

Coleman: +303 (+215)

Actual Changes (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman: +173 (+76)
Franken: +253 (+141)
Total Change: Franken +80 (Franken +65)

Challenge Gap (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman (CH by Franken): -2512 (-2415)
Franken (CH by Coleman): -2680 (-2568)
Total Gap: Franken +168 (Franken +153)

Non-Subtracted Challenges
Coleman: 487
Franken: 434

Actual Total (With Challenge Gap Included, Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman +135 (Coleman +150)

[Sam Spade]

Does that include the +37?

Yes.  As you should note - Franken gained +35 (+40 with assumptions) from yesterday.

Anyway, basically it's those 35 precincts in Hennepin and the four counties left.  Unless they *find* votes in the one rural northern precinct - I tend to doubt that as it looks too fishy.

[Sam Spade]

Unless every Franken challenge of an uncounted ballot made yesterday is legitimate, there is simply no way he made up 59 votes yesterday alone.

[Sam Spade]

Unless every Franken challenge of an uncounted ballot made yesterday is legitimate, there is simply no way he made up 59 votes yesterday alone.

The claim is that he is ahead by 22 assuming all challenges of every type are rejected. Thus their claim is not dependant on adding new votes to his total from Franken challenges (unless they challenged votes counted for Franken!). It does mean they are assuming maasive pickups from Coleman challenges being rejected.

As I have shown in the chart above, if we make the flat assumption that the challenge gap is Franken challenging Coleman ballots and vice versa (and the actual precinct-by-precinct numbers, along with the ballots shown by Star Tribune, leads me to assume that this is the case to about a 90%-95% accuracy rate, with the outliers being evenly distributed), the challenge gap is Franken +168 (without making other assumptions).

This would lead to a result of Coleman +135 on present numbers.

Separate of these numbers are the 487 Coleman challenges and the 434 Franken challenges that cannot be associated with a subtracted ballot.  With the flat assumption in mind, as above, the only way to arrive at the conclusion that Franken is up 22 if all challenges are rejected would be for these remaining votes to split in such a way that these remaining challenges resulted in Coleman challenging 152 more ballots that had been counted by the county elections boards as Franken votes in the recount, but not in the original count, excluding the actual changes which I have already noted.  I consider this highly unlikely (to the point of being almost impossible)

So, either the flat assumption is wrong or what you're saying is incorrect.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know where you get +59 from. They had said -50, and now +22. But 72 - 37 = +35. Obviously the +37 from the found ballots are a special case.

Misadded.  +35 would still require Franken to win every challenge made today.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know where you get +59 from. They had said -50, and now +22. But 72 - 37 = +35. Obviously the +37 from the found ballots are a special case.

Misadded.  +35 would still require Franken to win every challenge made today.

Soo.. not that unlikely given the nature of challenges in this race?

Possible if the Franken people have finally done what they should have done ages ago - unilaterally cut the ridiculous crap. They *did* start it later, after all.

The precincts that came in yesterday showed nothing ridiculous from either side (without benefit of the actual ballots, of course, this doesn't mean that much).  The Ramsey county reviewers on both sides have consistently been the best in my mind anyways - if you note there, the challenge gap is nearly zero and the number of challenges was really low.

[Sam Spade]

btw, the Strib has another 600 challenged ballots online for your perusal...

[Sam Spade]

Instead of questioning this voter's intent, maybe they should be questioning his sanity...

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Todd_Osakis_challengedballot1.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Instead of questioning this voter's intent, maybe they should be questioning his sanity...

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Todd_Osakis_challengedballot1.pdf

Hm? Why? Just because he prefers MN Dems to MN Reps and likes Ron Paul?

Voting for Ron Paul and Franken is a clear sign of lunacy in my book.

[Sam Spade]

One of the more creative challenges I've found so far.  Follow the logic (not that I think it's successful btw)

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/cottonwood_noprecinct_8.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Which Norm Coleman is this voter voting for?

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Crow%20Wing_Lake%20Edward_challenged%20ballot%201.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Probably from one of the last 34 precincts to be counted from Hennepin County...

http://www.twincities.com/allheadlines/ci_11129187?nclick_check=1

Minneapolis discovery costs Franken 44 votes.

What Maplewood giveth, Minneapolis taketh away.

Elections officials in Minnesota's largest city today discovered that one precinct came up 133 ballots short of election day totals, resulting in a net loss for Democratic challenger Al Franken of 44 votes.

The development wipes away what had been a boon for Franken in his bid to overtake Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, after Ramsey County officials found an additional 37 votes for Franken from a Maplewood precinct on Tuesday.

Minneapolis elections director Cindy Reichert said she believes the error occurred when election judges at the precinct on election night mistakenly ran ballots with write-in candidates through a counting machine twice. There were 129 such ballots.

Reichert said although the numbers do not match exactly, she is confident that that's what happened and will report those numbers to the Secretary of State's Office. She also detailed a search for any potential missing envelopes that contain ballots, including opening the counting machine, talking to election judges and calling the church where the polling place was located.

"We believe that we have all the ballot envelopes here," Reichert said. "There are human errors that are made on election day."

[Sam Spade]

Counties to Be Completed
Beltrami (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.  The one precinct SOS hasn't reported was 5-2 Franken in the original certification.
Hennepin (3 precincts) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.  Two of three precincts SOS hasn't reported had 0 votes in the original certification.  One precinct was 53-16 Franken (with 73 total votes) in the original certification.
Ramsey (1 precinct) - Star Tribune reports as 100%.  The one precinct SOS hasn't reported had 0 votes in the original certification.
Scott (18 precincts or 38% left)
Winona (7 precincts or 26% left)
Wright (24 precincts or 57% left)
Update (Using My Method) (does not include the 633 withdrawn Franken challenges)

SOS
Coleman: 1,177,465 (1,174,964)
Franken: 1,188,736 (1,186,134)

Coleman: +316 (+215)

Actual Changes (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman: +140 (+43)
Franken: +179 (+64)
Total Change: Franken +39 (Franken +21)

Challenge Gap (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman (CH by Franken): -2641 (-2544)
Franken (CH by Coleman): -2781 (-2666)
Total Gap: Franken +140 (Franken +122)

Non-Subtracted Challenges
Coleman: 540
Franken: 477

Actual Total (With Challenge Gap Included, Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman +176 (Coleman +194)

[Sam Spade]

Sam, does your method distinguish between different types of challenges (sorry if that has already been addressed)?

It distinguishes as much as can be done with the information provided.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, but only to the extent it relies on the assumptions I've making, which in truth is quite limited.

I don't think I was being clear earlier.

The MN SOS provides us with three things on every precinct in the state:
1) (first-count) Certified Numbers (Coleman/Franken)
2) (second count) Recount Numbers (Coleman/Franken/Other)
3) Challenges Made (Franken/Coleman)

Actual Changes are the easiest part to measure.  They are *definite* changes that have occurred with no questions.  You can spot them two ways:
1) Increases in a candidate's total in the precinct.
2) Decrease in a candidate's total in the precinct that exceed the number of total challenges in that same precinct.

The Challenge Gap functions by making two assumptions/presumptions based on MN SOS results.
1) We assume that each challenge in a precinct represents a subtracted ballot.
(e.g. Coleman challenges 1 vote.  1 vote removed from Franken.  The challenge is the vote removed)
(e.g. Coleman challenges 2 votes.  Franken challenges 4 votes.  4 votes removed from Coleman.  2 votes removed from Franken.  We assume that the six challenges are the votes removed)
2) We assume that each challenge in a precinct, unless otherwise noted, is one candidate's challenge of the other candidate's vote.
(e.g. Coleman challenges 1 vote.  1 vote removed from Franken.  We assume that Coleman's challenge is the Franken vote.)
(e.g. Coleman challenges 2 votes.  Franken challenges 4 votes.  4 votes removed from Coleman.  2 votes removed from Franken.  We assume that the 2 Coleman challenges are the 2 Franken votes AND that the 4 Franken challenges are the 4 Coleman votes)

I established these assumptions based on the fact that the above patterns appear in *direct* context with easily a majority of the challenged precincts.  Those that don't tend to fall under the non-subtracted category, as indicated below.  ST Ballot Challenge has pretty much confirmed my assumption.

And even if only 90% correct or so, I would presume that the challenges which do not fall under this method probably break somewhat evenly.

Non-Subtracted Challenges are challenges in a precinct that do not associate with a subtracted ballot.
(e.g. Coleman challenges 1 ballot.  No ballots are removed.  Coleman has a non-subtracted challenge)
(e.g. Coleman challenges 2 ballots.  Franken challenges 4 challenges.  3 votes removed from Coleman.  1 vote removed from Franken.  As above, we connect 4 of the challenges to the subtracted votes.  The remaining 2 challenges are considered non-subtracted.  We allocate 1 to Coleman and 1 to Franken)

To make greater assumptions about Non-Subtracted Challenges would require more information than is available.  They could be blank votes, overvotes or other candidate votes.  They could also be ballots added or subtracted from the original count.

Clear?

[Sam Spade]

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35550034.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUxWoW_oD:EaDUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

Coleman withdraws 650 ballot challenges.

[Sam Spade]

There's no reason to dispute what the Franken people say if it isn't true.  Most of what's being said right now is only to keep the partisans going and the money flowing.