2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[KingSweden]

My thoughts, feel free to criticize. I'll include thoughts on leg races too

AL: Safe R. It'll be interesting here if Strange goes for Senate rather than Gov as expected - could be a free for all on GOP side. Not that it matters. Leg obviously Safe R
AK: Lean I. I think Walker pulls it out with his quirky coalition he's built here. Goofiness ensues in legislature, very unpredictable
AR: Hutch seems popular, no issue there. Leg is beyond Safe R
AZ: Could get interesting in Mauricio's. Is the AZ Senate close enough for D gains? I think yes, though short of a flip. Ducey could be vulnerable to a Stanton run. There are some row offices young Democrats could line up to challenge, too, though many GOP row officers seem pretty moderate.
CA: Likely D, if only because of Top Two. Leg should stay supermajority, perhaps even grow.
CO: Lean D. I think Ds should be favored to take back trifecta and I'll predict them to win 1 row office
CT: Tossup if Malloy runs, Lean D if he's smart and doesn't. Maybe Himes jumps in? Dems should win a seat or two to regain breathing room in Senate
FL: Tossup/Tilt R: Only because the D bench is crap. I think Gwen Graham makes a solid recruit though and Dems could narrow GOP majorities in the legislature. Maybe 1 row office gets picked off too
GA: Lean R due to runoff. The GOP primary will be nuts. Leg could narrow, maybe Dems get 1 row office with a good recruit and flop on GOP side. Does Carter run again?
HI: utterly Safe D. Can't Rs win back a Senate seat?
ID: Safe R, obviously
IL: Lean D. Best pickup opportunity IMO. Maybe Dems can expand leg margins again too
IA: Tilt R. I expect Reynolds to be the next Governor here. Dems scrape back some seats in leg, probably not enough to flip either
KS: Tilt R. Will be interesting with Brownback so radioactive. Svaty could be a strong contender
ME: who the f knows. I doubt Collins runs. Poliquin would be a strong GOP recruit. I'll say Dems flip the legislature
MD: Tossup/Tilt D: I know Hogan is popular but I see Delaney running and winning, albeit narrowly. Dems grow leg margins
MA: Tossup/Tilt R: Mass loves it some moderate R guvnahs, and Setti Warren seems a lower tier recruit
MI: Tilt D. I think Whitmer wins narrowly. Dems retake House and narrow margins in Senate, maybe flip a row office or two
MN: Lean D. Swanson runs strong in outer state and Dems sweep row offices again. Flip at least one chamber if not both.
NE: Likely R. I know Rockets is basically Brownback north but who runs? Do Dems focus on Senate first
NH: Too early to say. This place swings like crazy.
NM: Likely D. Udall or Balderas would dominate.
NV: Likely D. Don't think GOP has anyone like Sandoval left. Calculus changes if Heller runs, though I doubt he does
NY: Likely D. Hopefully Bharara primaries Cuomo. This could be the year Democrats flip the Senate.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R. I think it'll be narrow, but Republicans win. Leg margins tighten narrowly
OK: Likely R. It'd be interesting if Boren runs, which I doubt
PA: Likely D. Think Wolf runs again and wins. Dems narrow disadvantage in legislature.
Ri: Likelu D. Raimondo wins again, though there could be a primary.
SC: Safe R without an open seat.
SD: Likely R. I think Jackley wins primary.
WI: Tossup. Does the Walker/WOW machine carry the day? Is Walker running again? He'll be the top target for Democrats. Leg depends on what happens with this lawsuit that just went down. Could see a big year here for Team D.
WY: Hahahhaa

[KingSweden]

My thoughts, feel free to criticize. I'll include thoughts on leg races too

AL: Safe R. It'll be interesting here if Strange goes for Senate rather than Gov as expected - could be a free for all on GOP side. Not that it matters. Leg obviously Safe R
AK: Lean I. I think Walker pulls it out with his quirky coalition he's built here. Goofiness ensues in legislature, very unpredictable
AR: Hutch seems popular, no issue there. Leg is beyond Safe R
AZ: Could get interesting in Mauricio's. Is the AZ Senate close enough for D gains? I think yes, though short of a flip. Ducey could be vulnerable to a Stanton run. There are some row offices young Democrats could line up to challenge, too, though many GOP row officers seem pretty moderate.
CA: Likely D, if only because of Top Two. Leg should stay supermajority, perhaps even grow.
CO: Lean D. I think Ds should be favored to take back trifecta and I'll predict them to win 1 row office
CT: Tossup if Malloy runs, Lean D if he's smart and doesn't. Maybe Himes jumps in? Dems should win a seat or two to regain breathing room in Senate
FL: Tossup/Tilt R: Only because the D bench is crap. I think Gwen Graham makes a solid recruit though and Dems could narrow GOP majorities in the legislature. Maybe 1 row office gets picked off too
GA: Lean R due to runoff. The GOP primary will be nuts. Leg could narrow, maybe Dems get 1 row office with a good recruit and flop on GOP side. Does Carter run again?
HI: utterly Safe D. Can't Rs win back a Senate seat?
ID: Safe R, obviously
IL: Lean D. Best pickup opportunity IMO. Maybe Dems can expand leg margins again too
IA: Tilt R. I expect Reynolds to be the next Governor here. Dems scrape back some seats in leg, probably not enough to flip either
KS: Tilt R. Will be interesting with Brownback so radioactive. Svaty could be a strong contender
ME: who the f knows. I doubt Collins runs. Poliquin would be a strong GOP recruit. I'll say Dems flip the legislature
MD: Tossup/Tilt D: I know Hogan is popular but I see Delaney running and winning, albeit narrowly. Dems grow leg margins
MA: Tossup/Tilt R: Mass loves it some moderate R guvnahs, and Setti Warren seems a lower tier recruit
MI: Tilt D. I think Whitmer wins narrowly. Dems retake House and narrow margins in Senate, maybe flip a row office or two
MN: Lean D. Swanson runs strong in outer state and Dems sweep row offices again. Flip at least one chamber if not both.
NE: Likely R. I know Rockets is basically Brownback north but who runs? Do Dems focus on Senate first
NH: Too early to say. This place swings like crazy.
NM: Likely D. Udall or Balderas would dominate.
NV: Likely D. Don't think GOP has anyone like Sandoval left. Calculus changes if Heller runs, though I doubt he does
NY: Likely D. Hopefully Bharara primaries Cuomo. This could be the year Democrats flip the Senate.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R. I think it'll be narrow, but Republicans win. Leg margins tighten narrowly
OK: Likely R. It'd be interesting if Boren runs, which I doubt
PA: Likely D. Think Wolf runs again and wins. Dems narrow disadvantage in legislature.
Ri: Likelu D. Raimondo wins again, though there could be a primary.
SC: Safe R without an open seat.
SD: Likely R. I think Jackley wins primary.
WI: Tossup. Does the Walker/WOW machine carry the day? Is Walker running again? He'll be the top target for Democrats. Leg depends on what happens with this lawsuit that just went down. Could see a big year here for Team D.
WY: Hahahhaa

This list seems good to me, with the exception of a few:

Maryland (Leans R): I'm not convinced Democrats can knock off an incumbent Gov who is this popular. Perhaps if they can find a way to make him more unpopular? If there is a ginormous wave, perhaps he gets swept away anyway.

Nevada (Tossup): Honestly it's hard for me to give Democrats anything better than a toss-up on this. They have had an amazing inability to win a gubernatorial race here in literally almost a generation now. I'm not saying they definitely can't because they haven't in so long, but that I'm less inclined to believe it's an automatic win, even in a wave.

I'm not too bullish on IA or OH either, but no other comments on them. Overall I do not think 2018 will be kind to Republicans for numerous reasons, so to me it's just a matter of how bad.

Iowa is a toughie. I don't know who Democrats would run and Reynolds from what I understand has had her eye on '18 for years.

[KingSweden]

For CT, I agree on a Toss-Up rating if Malloy runs, but that doesn't seem likely to me (with a Lean D if he doesn't run). Based on the conversations I've had with some state party people (which occurred before Trump won so plans may have shifted), they don't want Malloy to run again and have talked about a range of people from Kevin Lembo to George Jepsen to Dan Drew.

Who would be strongest in your opinion?

[KingSweden]

Safe R- AR, ID, MA, TN, TX, SD*, WY
Likely R- AL, MD, NE, OK, SC
Leans R- AZ, GA, KS, IA
Tilts R- IL, NH, OH, VA, VT
Pure Tossup- CO, FL, MN, NV, RI, WI
Tilts D- CT, MI
Leans D- ME, NJ, NM, PA
Likely D- AK***, CA, NY
Safe D
OR
*Providing Noem is the nominee, which seems likely at this point.
**As long as Malloy doesn't run. If he does, Pure Tossup. But my guess is he won't, cause most governors do retire after 2 terms even if not written in stone.
***I am counting AK as democratic.

Curious why you have IL as Tilt R

[KingSweden]

Pretty reasonable. I think this is where I'm at

[KingSweden]

Update:

Ohio, Iowa and Kansas as Tossups seems a bit too bullish, as does WI as anything other than Tossup

[KingSweden]

These are fair.

[KingSweden]

Updated:

Eminently reasonable. Suspect GOP goes 2-1 in those tossups