2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

Thanks for actually formatting that.

Not sure why CNN is running with at as a bad number for Dems.

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.

Likelier that D+18 was a crazy outlier

[KingSweden]

It’s January and there’s nothing better to talk about, I guess, but the pantswetting over a wildly swingy CNN poll isn’t healthy for anyone - nor is arguing over it

[KingSweden]

Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Dude, the LV screen on the CNN poll has Democrats up 15. Chill.

Wasn’t that the enthusiasm gap, rather than the LV screen?

[KingSweden]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

LimoLiberal has posted plenty of poll results that are bad for Republicans.

King Lear is the really bad offender. Limo oscillates

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

[KingSweden]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

.....

[KingSweden]

A Limo vs King Lear pissing match, kill me now

[KingSweden]

RIP a coveted and forever alive in my heart Atlas relationship

This seriously cracked me up

[KingSweden]

Monmouth poll coming soon. My guess is D+11.

Seems a bit ambitious. I’ll say D+7 or D+8

[KingSweden]

That's an outliner if I've ever seen one

The approval rating suggests this is a reversion to the mean from a December outlier. This actually corresponds pretty well with what Monmouth was showing for most of the year.

[KingSweden]

Trump has a 42% approval rating in that poll.

If he is hanging around that number, then it doesn't matter what the generic ballot lead is.

This. The economy has never been a major factor in midterms... well, sometimes it has but the popularity of a president is more important.

Yeah, if the President starts cranking out 50%+ approval ratings then I will be concerned. But he is hanging around the high 30's to early-mid 40s then his party is going to be in trouble in November.

To add to my point. Trump had a 43% approval rating in the exit polls here in VA during the election in November.

The GOP was completely wiped out.

Exactly. Living and dying by every wiggle in the generic ballot is pointless, but we are who we are.

Aren’t those the words to a Kesha song?

[KingSweden]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

I think a mental health break away will do you some good because you get seriously wayyyy too worked up about every little poll

[KingSweden]

^^^

Gingrich is a much cannier analyst of American politics than he gets credit for

[KingSweden]

I’ve acually met giant-killer George Nethercutt a few times. Very nice man, said I had a pretty wife and has a remarkable handshake.

[KingSweden]

D+6 in both models, hmm?

[KingSweden]

Per DKE... ABC has a poll showing GCB at D+14

[KingSweden]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

[KingSweden]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

According to Kyle Kondik, Clinton won the Democratic districts by 34 (now 38), while Trump won the Republican districts by 21 (now 6). That actually makes a lot of sense, as Democrats can't really outperform in the big cities and it also fits perfectly to the special election results in KS-4, MT-AL, SC-05 and various state legislative elections that happened over the last year.

That actually comports with the swings we’ve seen, almost exactly

[KingSweden]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 25-Feb 2, 900 adults

D 46, R 41 (D+5)

I don't find a previous one to compare this with.

This is the rare poll where Congressional GOP outpolls Trump, if that’s the case

[KingSweden]

I’ve never seen “inclination to vote” used before in a poll

[KingSweden]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

[KingSweden]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

They have consistently been within a very narrow range on the generic ballot since the beginning of December (8 surveys).

Makes sense.

[KingSweden]

DOOOOOOOOOM

In all seriousness that’s a good poll, but it’s only one poll; and I’m not getting excited unless I see corroboration

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.

I don’t believe 538 includes internal polls in their average

[KingSweden]

+8 in the GCB is not bad in a poll where Pres approvals are only -6