Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[KingSweden]

I’d be leery of the “deserves reelection” vs “give someone else a chance” numbers if only because someone else could be Generic R, Generic D, or even Santa Claus. It’s a bad number in context, obviously, but it isn’t as informative as we think IMO

[KingSweden]

Per DKE - Looks like Gallup has POTUS at

40A (-2)
55D (+1)

I do not have a link.

[KingSweden]

Discussion and debate over Trump’s approval are painfully boring at this point. His aggregates haven’t budged in almost four months.

But we get more substance to polls. For six states we now have the overt question of whether to re-elect or not re-elect the President. In five states that he won and one that he barely lost he gets results that suggest that he would lose ever one of them decisively.

So are red states getting redder then? If he is losing support in swing states but his national support is staying put, it has to fill in somewhere.

Quite possible. Polling suggests that much of his movement comes from gains with GOP since the tax cuts. States with more Republicans and conservative Indies would hypothetically have less drop off.

[KingSweden]

Here is some partial polling data from Kansas:

Question 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Donald Trump?

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Not bad -- until you see the crosstabs!

It's 64-29 among Kansas Republicans, and 50-50 among libertarians.


No mention of Democrats. Telling, but obviously incomplete.
 

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Kansas-Executive-Summary-V2-Release-Version.pdf

Well, it's a Republican primary poll:

Question 1: Do you plan to vote in the August 7 Republican primary? (Those who do not plan to vote are excluded from taking the rest of the survey)

64% approval among the GOP in a state as consistently Republican as Kansas seems low

[KingSweden]

I hate to burst your bubble here, but Dems have only nominated two “popular” candidates in the past 50 years.

Candidates:

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Any of those favorable/approve numbers save for 1992 (assuming his election week #s were poor) and 2004 would do, and in Obama's case, would do extremely well. And even for someone with Kerry's numbers, which are still comfortably better than Trump's average, there are a number of things that Trump has to deal with that he didn't in 2016, a fired up Democratic base for one. Second, he actually has a record to run on this time, and it's not pure roses, particularly with the tariffs and healthcare issues. Third, it's unlikely his opponent will be dogged by constant scandal and an FBI investigation literally right up to election day, whereas Trump is a walking scandal machine, and has been every single day since he announced in 2015. It's actually kind of amazing how reliably controversial he has been.

There was a reason a lot of hay was made about the historic nature of the unpopularity of 2016's candidates. The fact is, candidates generally aren't that disliked before even being elected. Sure, you can get someone who is slightly more disliked than liked (eg Kerry / Romney), but nothing on the scale of Hillary or Donald.


So my point still stands: If Trump wants to get reelected, he ought to work hard to bring his approval rating up. Otherwise, he's risking defeat. It's not like it will take another Obama 2008 or Reagan scenario to topple him if his numbers are low.

I don't think Trump's approval will ever rise above 45% but I'm still worried. What guarantee do we have that he won't drag his opponent down? Trump's path to reelection isn't a positive campaign campaign and a message of keeping peace and prosperity (though a good economy would certainly help), it's turning out the 40% core support he has and dragging his opponent down so that 8-10% of the electorate will hate his opponent even more than they hate Trump (and then hope the EC bails him out). I can totally see that happen if Harris or Warren is the nominee. Heck, I'd probably be part of the 8-10% if Sanders or Warren is the nominee .

At the same time, you have to weigh what’s more important: stopping Trump’s contempt for institutions and norms, or policies you might not like when enacted.

[KingSweden]

I hate to burst your bubble here, but Dems have only nominated two “popular” candidates in the past 50 years.

Candidates:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any of those favorable/approve numbers save for 1992 (assuming his election week #s were poor) and 2004 would do, and in Obama's case, would do extremely well. And even for someone with Kerry's numbers, which are still comfortably better than Trump's average, there are a number of things that Trump has to deal with that he didn't in 2016, a fired up Democratic base for one. Second, he actually has a record to run on this time, and it's not pure roses, particularly with the tariffs and healthcare issues. Third, it's unlikely his opponent will be dogged by constant scandal and an FBI investigation literally right up to election day, whereas Trump is a walking scandal machine, and has been every single day since he announced in 2015. It's actually kind of amazing how reliably controversial he has been.

There was a reason a lot of hay was made about the historic nature of the unpopularity of 2016's candidates. The fact is, candidates generally aren't that disliked before even being elected. Sure, you can get someone who is slightly more disliked than liked (eg Kerry / Romney), but nothing on the scale of Hillary or Donald.


So my point still stands: If Trump wants to get reelected, he ought to work hard to bring his approval rating up. Otherwise, he's risking defeat. It's not like it will take another Obama 2008 or Reagan scenario to topple him if his numbers are low.

I don't think Trump's approval will ever rise above 45% but I'm still worried. What guarantee do we have that he won't drag his opponent down? Trump's path to reelection isn't a positive campaign campaign and a message of keeping peace and prosperity (though a good economy would certainly help), it's turning out the 40% core support he has and dragging his opponent down so that 8-10% of the electorate will hate his opponent even more than they hate Trump (and then hope the EC bails him out). I can totally see that happen if Harris or Warren is the nominee. Heck, I'd probably be part of the 8-10% if Sanders or Warren is the nominee .

At the same time, you have to weigh what’s more important: stopping Trump’s contempt for institutions and norms, or policies you might not like when enacted.

I guess I'd probably end up 'supporting' whatever hopeless neoconservative third party bid pops up in the end. I'm very glad to be Dutch .

Sometimes I debate decamping myself and my wife to Sweden but stuff seems to be getting pretty hairy there too

[KingSweden]

FWIW I suspect that Trafalgar poll is hot garbage so let’s not get all worked up over it mmkay

[KingSweden]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

[KingSweden]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

Don't forget poll quality/consistency has gone down quite a bit too.

Eh I’m not gonna play that game. Too close to unskewing. I’ll take the averages at face value (save for RCP).

[KingSweden]

Remarkable how static the numbers stay

[KingSweden]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

AAAAARRRRRGGGG

[KingSweden]

Andrew is lying again. The poll is from the 18th to the 22nd, only covering one day of the Cohen/Manafort news.

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Whoa Limo omitting info that doesn’t suit his narrative? Who’d have thought

[KingSweden]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Quite stable.

[KingSweden]

Harvard/Harris, Aug. 22-23, 1330 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disaprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

It always bothers me a bit that this poll never has any undecideds.

Strong approve and approve moving opposite is interesting though probably just MOE fluctuation

[KingSweden]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

Nah they’re just kinda nonsensical

[KingSweden]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

[KingSweden]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

For comparison, the last USA Today/Suffolk poll (June) was 43/51.

So from -8 to -16

[KingSweden]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

For comparison, the last USA Today/Suffolk poll (June) was 43/51.

So from -8 to -16

Yeah.  One thing to keep in mind, though, is that the previous poll was in the midst of Trump's brief North Korea bump.

Ah true. Good point.

[KingSweden]

Interesting thread!

[KingSweden]

Those are bad long term numbers for the GOP

[KingSweden]

WaPo seems to have been one of the harder polls from Trump this year.

Indeed. Could be a leading indicator of what to expect in other polls, though.

[KingSweden]

Everyone interested in polling should read this entire (longish) thread:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1035590339803983874

Good stuff.

[KingSweden]

Emerson
Approval: 38
Disapproval: 53
https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-e-poll-voters-better-off-financially-country-worse-off-overall-under-trump-consider-third-party-option-2020#.W41E7hYpCEf

The previous Emerson national poll (July 6-7) was 43/50, so this movement is in line with other recent polls (WaPo/ABC, IBD/TIPP, PPP).

-7 to -15

[KingSweden]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Interesting. Not what we have been seeing in other polls.

Huh? That is completely within MOE of the other polls

I suspect he means the fact that it didn't move much, unlike the ones that have shown some sharp declines for Trump.

Possibly a function of Gallup polling more frequently

[KingSweden]

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 1002 adults including 779 likely voters

Among adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 50

Among LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 50

LV's were also asked whether they would vote to reelect Trump:

Definitely vote to reelect Trump: 36
Consider someone else: 17
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 43

GCB (LV only): D 43, R 41

Why isn’t Srlzer polling the Iowa races? Hrrrgghh