2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[J. J.]

I think it is very likely. Obama won't have the privilege of running against a Republican congress like Clinton did, and the Tea Party energy will probably have waned to allow many more excellent candidates to make it through the Republican primaries. This is assuming of course that Republicans put up someone decent in 2012, but could we be seeing gains in the +10 territory?

We "could."  I would expect expect some gains, if Obama runs, and even pull off a smaller victory.  A lot of that is simply the number of seats that are up.

If Obama becomes the next Jimmy Carter, you could see a ten seat loss.

[J. J.]

There is still SOOOO long to go.

So much can happen between now and then

There are 21 D's, 10 R's and 2 I's.  The odds that the GOP will gain seats are good.  A prediction of how many is too early.

[J. J.]

It is far too early to be predicting 2012 or anything.  However, the fact that the Dems have 23 seats up and the GOP only 10 is going to make keeping things even kinda difficult.

I think that is the key.  Even if Obama would win in a Democratic landslide in 2012, it would be likely that at least some of those will flip.

2014 is almost as bad, with 20 Dem seats up. That leads to an interesting situation.  Obama is re-elected in 2012.  There is a bloodbath in 2014, in all probability.

Obama loses in 2012 and there is a bloodbath in the Senate in 2012.  2014, there may not be a total disaster in the Dems in the Senate, but there is still a likely loss. 

It might be probable to say that there will be three Senate Elections with GOP gains.

And yes, that is one of the signs of a realignment.  3 years of gains in at least one House, with a switch of control.

[J. J.]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

[J. J.]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

[J. J.]

Phips, we've seen these situations where the presidential candidate wins re-election in a 49 state landslide, and the party still loses a Senate seat. 

The problem is the number of seats defended.  The Democrats and allies have 23; the GOP has 10.  They drop, but the question is, by how much?