Santorum to pour $1 million into Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama

[J. J.]

KS is possible for Romney.  AL and MI are possible by default.

[J. J.]

In April, a lot of states in the North-East will vote, all favor Romney except Pennsylvania.

PA's GOP delegates are unpledged, so Santorum could win, big, and still lose the delegates, big.  It happened in 1980.

[J. J.]

I would be watching the primaries on Saturday.

KS is big, but there is also several territories, Northern Marianas, Samoa and Guam.  Momentum might give Romney a plurality of the delegates.

If he could pull out a win in KS, Santorum will be caught between Gingrich and Romney victories for about a fortnight.

[J. J.]

Mitt isn't winning KA - if he couldn't win in OK, MO, IA or ND, he's not winning in KA.

At this point, for a narrow window, it is possible.  Momentum may have shifted enough for Romney to win it.

MO was a beauty contest with no delegates.

It is also possible for Mittens to win a plurality of the delegates on Saturday.

[J. J.]

In April, a lot of states in the North-East will vote, all favor Romney except Pennsylvania.

PA's GOP delegates are unpledged, so Santorum could win, big, and still lose the delegates, big.  It happened in 1980.

Sad but true.

Since 1988, publicly, I have been in favor of using pledged delegates.  I have not changed my position.

[J. J.]

KS is possible for Romney.  AL and MI are possible by default.

Corrected:

KS is possible for Romney.  AL and MS are possible by default.

MI is for Michigan
MN is for Minnesota
MS is for Mississippi
MO is for Missouri

Give me a break, I was up for the Alaska returns. 

[J. J.]

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Mittens is up three in the Daily Tracking Poll.  Momentum, though not great.

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He was only guy who showed up, effectively.

It is quite possible that Romney will get a plurality of the delegates on Saturday.  KS isn't the only contest, though it is the largest.

[J. J.]

Didn't Huckabee blow McCain out of the water in the 2008 Kansas caucuses, even after McCain was the de facto nominee?  I doubt Romney has much chance there.  He's probably more likely to win Alabama than he is to win the Kansas caucuses.

The anti-Romney vote is going to be divided in KS.  And remember, it's not just KS.

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Samoa isn't up; it's the VI.  My bad.

Demographically, they are mostly Catholic and they are not going for either of the Catholic candidates.

Most of the opinions on the campaign will be shaped by the media, and that is reporting that Romney is a winner.

The only people with a ground game there, potentially, are Paul and Romney.  I have not heard of any great effor by Santorum or Gingrich.

[J. J.]

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Not happening.

Probably not happening. But of the 67 delegates in jurisdictions voting on Saturday, 40 are in Kansas, and 9 each in Guam, the Northern Marianas and the US Virgin Islands. If Romney swept the islands, and won a decent number of the at-large delegates in Kansas, he could emerge with more delegates from the day than Santorum. A similar pattern could play out later in the month as American Samoa and Puerto Rico vote.

Of course, the optics of losing KS, AL, MS and LA, but winning a series of tropical islands that don't have any electoral votes won't do much to burnish Romney's image as a strong front-runner.

True about winning the islands.  And yes, I said a plurality, not a majority.

[J. J.]

Didn't Huckabee blow McCain out of the water in the 2008 Kansas caucuses, even after McCain was the de facto nominee?  I doubt Romney has much chance there.  He's probably more likely to win Alabama than he is to win the Kansas caucuses.

The anti-Romney vote is going to be divided in KS.

JJ's impeccable predictive powers once again save the day.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/07/gingrich_concedes_kansas.html

Newt Gingrich has canceled a series of appearances in Kansas leading up to the state's Saturday caucus, the Topeka Capital-Journal reports.

He's still on the ballot, just like OH.

[J. J.]

Didn't Huckabee blow McCain out of the water in the 2008 Kansas caucuses, even after McCain was the de facto nominee?  I doubt Romney has much chance there.  He's probably more likely to win Alabama than he is to win the Kansas caucuses.

The anti-Romney vote is going to be divided in KS.

JJ's impeccable predictive powers once again save the day.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/07/gingrich_concedes_kansas.html

Newt Gingrich has canceled a series of appearances in Kansas leading up to the state's Saturday caucus, the Topeka Capital-Journal reports.

He's still on the ballot, just like OH.

There are no ballots at caucuses. Didn't they mention that at your MENSA meetings?

First, RCP lists it as a primary:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Second, Gingrich is still going to be a candidate, as will Paul, even if neither are in the state.

[J. J.]

First, RCP lists it as a primary:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Second, Gingrich is still going to be a candidate, as will Paul, even if neither are in the state.

It's a caucus. Open a non-hack site and you'l find it.

Real Clear Politics? 

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They both suspended their campaigns.  Gingrich is just concentrating on MS and AL.  Seriously, don't you understand the difference?

[J. J.]

Of course voters at the Kansas caucuses (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/KS-R#0310) will have the opportunity to vote for Gingrich if they want to.
The question is why they'd be likely to do so in very large numbers. Santorum has done well in most of the neighboring states, and Gingrich had a very disappointing result last night.

Gingrich might do well in MS and AL, given his wins in GA and SC (you could argue that he' going to win the Deep South states won by Goldwater in 1964), but I'll wait for polls before guessing on that. But at best he's a regional candidate.

Lyndon didn't think they would.  Look at neighboring OK, however.  Virtually no Gingrich effort, but he broke 25%.  No, Gingrich won't win KS, and I'd expect Santorum to get more delegates in KS, but Santorum's total will be down.  It won't give Santorum any momentum for next week, especially if loses the day overall.  It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

If a miracle happens, and Romney wins KS, Santorum is greatly weakened against Gingrich.

[J. J.]

It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

You know, I'd expect from a MENSA guy to have less trouble distinguishing Mississippi from Michigan.

No, I just don't send too many letters to either.

Mebbe he's a DENSA member.

Didn't you just say Santorum was going to get the most delegates yesterday?

[J. J.]

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I did say it was a mite premature to award that honor to Romney.

It wasn't, though Romney might not have lost several more primaries.

[J. J.]

Is it really KS and not KA?

KS, I stayed up to watch AK results prior to posting it. 

[J. J.]

Are any of the candidates actually going to show up in OK?  According to the news, they are in AL and MS.

[J. J.]

Why would they visit OK now that the primary is over there???

Sorry, will any candidate actually show up in KS?

[J. J.]

I think Santorum should be aiming for a massive win in Kansas, maybe even pushing Romney below 20% and taking it all. If I was Paul I would make a push for 20% in Kansas, but it now looks like he'll repeat his Colorado showing. It's also important to note that only 18 delegates are up for grabs in the island caucuses on Saturday, while Kansas actually picks its superdelegates.

27 outside of KS, (Guam, VI, Northern Marianas).  Nine each, proportional.

(The other islands, HI and Samoa are on Monday.)

I'm expecting KS to look more like OK, with Romney in second.  I'm expecting Romney to win the other three.

[J. J.]

I think Santorum should be aiming for a massive win in Kansas, maybe even pushing Romney below 20% and taking it all. If I was Paul I would make a push for 20% in Kansas, but it now looks like he'll repeat his Colorado showing. It's also important to note that only 18 delegates are up for grabs in the island caucuses on Saturday, while Kansas actually picks its superdelegates.

27 outside of KS, (Guam, VI, Northern Marianas).  Nine each, proportional.

(The other islands, HI and Samoa are on Monday.)

I'm expecting KS to look more like OK, with Romney in second.  I'm expecting Romney to win the other three.

9 of them are RNC members.

I think he'll get them, at least as "soft delegates."

[J. J.]

I think Santorum should be aiming for a massive win in Kansas, maybe even pushing Romney below 20% and taking it all. If I was Paul I would make a push for 20% in Kansas, but it now looks like he'll repeat his Colorado showing. It's also important to note that only 18 delegates are up for grabs in the island caucuses on Saturday, while Kansas actually picks its superdelegates.

27 outside of KS, (Guam, VI, Northern Marianas).  Nine each, proportional.

(The other islands, HI and Samoa are on Monday.)

I'm expecting KS to look more like OK, with Romney in second.  I'm expecting Romney to win the other three.

9 of them are RNC members.

I think he'll get them, at least as "soft delegates."

But barring an absolute thumping of Romney, he won't be losing or winning them tomorrow. There's also the fact that the media won't be definitively able to announce Romney's superdelegate victory.

They have been.

[J. J.]

(The other islands, HI and Samoa are on Monday.)

Tuesday

Sorry, yes Tuesday.