A black can't win a close election

[J. J.]

Opebo is wrong; just asked John Street (who I voted for).

[J. J.]

Bradley Effect is back!

When Opebo and JJ agree on something, it's not a good sign.

Ah, what of me saying, "Opebo is dead wrong," didn't you understand?

Opebo is wrong; just asked John Street (who I voted for).

[J. J.]

Eh, these "close election" arguments are weak. "No President has ever had a close race when they ran for re-election". Yeah, except for 1888, 1892, 1916, 1948, 1976, and 2004.

The incumbent did lose in 1888, 1892, and 1976.  That might not be the analogy you are looking for. 

Also, in 2004, there was an improvement in both PV and EV, though it was close.

[J. J.]

Eh, these "close election" arguments are weak. "No President has ever had a close race when they ran for re-election". Yeah, except for 1888, 1892, 1916, 1948, 1976, and 2004.

The incumbent did lose in 1888, 1892, and 1976.  That might not be the analogy you are looking for. 

Also, in 2004, there was an improvement in both PV and EV, though it was close.

Whether they won or lost wasn't the point. The point was they can be close.

Well, obviously, and I agree with you.  Who was saying it couldn't be close?