J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,892
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« on: September 10, 2018, 12:19:08 PM » |
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« edited: September 10, 2018, 12:53:28 PM by J. J. »
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I won't attempt to do it by districts, but a Democratic gain 28 to 38 seats.
Some things of note:
In 2018, far from being a disaster for the Democrats, was not a bad year, they gained 6 seats in the House.
In by-elections, Democrats gained 3 seats.
They could get 2/3 of the votes they lost since 2010, and probably get at least half back.
There are five vacancies. Totals are Democratic 193, Republican 237, vacancies 5. I expect those to beak down 4D/1R. (197 D/238 R)
My guess that the Democrats will get 230 seats, +/-5, Republican getting around 205 +/-5. It is a bit more likely to slide up for the Democrats. About D gain of 37 seats, counting the vacancies.
If it is below 225 D, Pelosi will have problem.
Off the Democrat's low point, 2014, they would be gaining 42 seats +/- 5
No one will be more surprised than me if the Republicans hold the House.
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