Democratic Leadership Elections

[J. J.]

These is the only ways Pelosi is in real trouble.


First, there would have be more than 20 Democrats that abstain.  There would have to be multiple ballots, but this has happened several times before.

In that case, on a point of order and appeal, the House could rule that a plurality that is not a majority is enough to elect.  That is possible, but unlikely, because you would need a majority to win the appeal.

Second, there would have be about 8-12 Democrats that vote for another candidate on the House floor.  In this case, there could be enough Republicans willing to abstain to lower the majority required.

[J. J.]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1063202757262356481

What happens if the person the revolt puts up to replace Pelosi gets blocked on the floor by Pelosi allies (assuming we get to that point, which we likely won't)? Do we just keep going in circles?

Well, here are some possibilities:

1.  Multiple ballots until someone gets a majority, which could mean the GOP helping chose the Speaker. This happens if the anti-P forces put up a candidate.  The record is 133 rounds of voting and the last time it took multiple rounds was 1923 with 9 rounds.  https://history.house.gov/People/Office/Speakers-Multiple-Ballots/  someone eventually gets a majority.

2.  The anti-P forces abstain.  (R is the total number of GOP votes, e.g. a 230 D/ 205 R split, R would be 205)

2a.  The abstentions are less than R-1.  Pelosi is elected.

2b.  If Pelosi gets less that total R vote, the GOP organizes the House.

3. Pelosi gets a plurality (the most votes) but less than a majority (more than half of the votes cast).  A point of order is raised that a plurality elects.  Whatever the chair's decision, it will be appealed and a majority decides that a plurality elects.  This would involve some of the members opposing her (either or both anti-P's or R's) voting to permit a plurality to elect.

4. A sufficient number of Republicans abstain to give Pelosi the majority. Example, the split is 230 D/ 205 R.  40 D's vote for an anti-P candidate, so that Pelosi gets 190 votes.  56 R's abstain (Pelosi 190+ Anti-P 40 +149 R = 379 total.  A majority of 379 (any number greater than 379/2) is any number greater than 189.5. Pelosi has a majority as 190 is greater than 189.5.  This would involve the R's aiding, indirectly, Pelosi's election.   

I think that the most likely possibilities are Pelosi winning a majority without abstentions/other votes (i.e. she gets to 218), 2a and 4, in that order.  2b is the least likely possibility (and would be almost suicidal for the Democratic Party).