Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Obama:  46 (+1)

McCain:  44 (nc)

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

[J. J.]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

No bounce or slump yet.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

Saturday's sample is in the mix.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

Okay, either this was a really bad sample for Obama, or there is a problem.

really bad sample, that is a few days old.

Saturday's sample is in the mix.

Exactly, besides a huge bump is not coming from Obama picking Biden just a 2-3 point one.

There should have been a bump, but it includes yesterday's numbers.  There should have been an increase.

[J. J.]

There isn't going be any short-term bounce from picking Biden. Most people don't have a clue as to who he is.

I was thinking more of the weekend bounce.

[J. J.]

What time of day are the polls conducted for Gallup?

That I don't know.  I'd guess early evening, because that's when they generally call me.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

[J. J.]

Surprised the Republicans haven't jumped on this one quicker...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
McCain 46 (+1)
Obama 44 (-1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
Hard to tell yet, and it'll get muddled up in convention noise, but there may have been a negative bounce from the Biden pick.  damn nomo types...

I don't think Biden hurt, but it didn't help, nationally.

There should be a convention bounce by this time next week.  If there isn't, Obama has a problem.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

The race has undoubtedly tightened, but only a few points. Obama never lead by more than an average of 5 or so, so being tied is not a collapse so much as a minor regression. I'll be more worried when Obama starts losing in blue states.

Wiz, I do not understand how you can go from "a slight lead for McCain (very slight)" to suggesting that I said a complete collapse.  I'd only be worried/happy if there was a McCain lead this time next week.

[J. J.]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

based on one poll showing mccain in front.  Let's wait a few days and see if that lead holds up... or are you willing to use this day's tracking poll as the standard for judging whatever convention "bounce" might occur?

It clearly tightened and Obama should have done better over the weekend.

I basically think it is a dead heat, possibly with McCain a fractional point ahead, maybe.  If McCain really is ahead, it won't be enough to consistenly register in the polls, even without a post convention bump.  I fully expect that next week, Obama will be in the lead.

[J. J.]

Yep, PUMA.

I suspect Obama will be up 6 or 7 by Monday.  Wall to wall lovefest in Denver plus another "tingle" speech in front of 75K cultists chanting the messiah's name and giving the O sign.  Nurenburg all over again.

but the elitism that will be oozing from the convention is bound to cost him a couple of points.  I predict that by next Monday Obama's up no more than 1-2%

I'd expect 3-4 points; I think if it's 1-2, Obama has big problems.

[J. J.]

Wednesday, August 27

Obama 45% (+1)
McCain 44% (-2)

OK, that one makes some sense.

[J. J.]

Actually, it might hit Western FL.

Now, finially, there is the convention bounce.  The highest day should be Monday.

[J. J.]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

Praying for victims can help.  Yes, I'm a cynic.

[J. J.]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

Praying for victims can help.  Yes, I'm a cynic.

Praying for victims during the convention? 

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

[J. J.]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

I didn't say it would.  I was referring to the symbolism.  It also depends on if the storm is "photogenic," for lack of a better word.  Katrina itself wasn't, but the aftermath was.

[J. J.]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

I didn't say it would.  I was referring to the symbolism.  It also depends on if the storm is "photogenic," for lack of a better word.  Katrina itself wasn't, but the aftermath was.

And McCain really wants to get into a battle over photo ops regarding hurricanes?  That would present a great opportunity for stock footage.

In any case, I have to say, J. J., your ability to find optimism for Republicans in every twist and turn of this election season is remarkable

I'm just talking about the symbolic aspects and the images.  Think back to Katrina.  How much footage did you actually see of it hitting?  Huge amounts of the aftermath, but not of it hitting.

Hey, I lived through a political campaign during the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  I saw what worked.

[J. J.]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

When did I ever say that?

No, no.  I was just saying that Obama is actually polling with a 15-point bump, like the McCain campaign "predicted."  Obviously just a result of a lucky sample and the convention bounce, but still

I'm just talking about the symbolic aspects and the images.  Think back to Katrina.  How much footage did you actually see of it hitting?  Huge amounts of the aftermath, but not of it hitting.

Hey, I lived through a political campaign during the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  I saw what worked.

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?



It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

[J. J.]

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?

[snip]

It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

Huh?

It would look too partisan and toss it to McCain.

[J. J.]

Saturday - August 30, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

I hate to say this, but I'm not convinced that isn't still part of the McCain mid week bounce from the summer.  I'm not too excited just yet.

[J. J.]

I hate to say this, but I'm not convinced that isn't still part of the McCain mid week bounce from the summer.

What do you mean?

These can be low numbers for Obama.  He normally should get an uptick tomorrow or Monday