turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks

[J. J.]

Light orderly lines at my polling station at 7:05 AM.

[J. J.]

8:00 AM no line.  Maybe one voter going in.

[J. J.]

8:00 AM no line.  Maybe one voter going in.

This is direct on the spot reporting, right?

Yes, poll workers outnumbered voters, from what I saw.

I still expect a higher turnout than last time.

At 2:00 PM in 2004, I was voter 170.  That was high, but being voter 200 wouldn't surprise me.

[J. J.]

9:10 AM, no line, one voter walked in.  PA 11th Ward, two polling stations.

[J. J.]

KYW reported long lines in Chinatown.  (Yes, Philadelphia has a Chinatown.)

[J. J.]

KYW reported long lines in Chinatown.  (Yes, Philadelphia has a Chinatown.)

No doubting that, but... Philadelphia has a K station?

Yep and a television station.  It predates the Mississippi divide.  KDKA is in Pittsburgh.  Same story. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KYW_(AM)

Just reporting about 75 at a Temple University polling place.

[J. J.]

I had to have missed something.  No line at 10:10 AM.  I cannot believe turnout is really that much down.

[J. J.]

J.J. Where do you live? Is it an overwhelming Dem or Rep. precinct?

North Philadelphia.  90%+ Democratic, 90%+ African American.  I am the closest thing to a Caucasian on my block (part Amerindian, mostly white).

[J. J.]

J.J. Where do you live? Is it an overwhelming Dem or Rep. precinct?

It is an overwhelmingly Black Dem precinct - everybody has voted early.

in PA??

No early voting and no lines, except at 7:00 AM.  It's two election districts and there wasn't a line halfway down the block (10-20 including the poll workers).  I'll get a count at 2:00 PM.

[J. J.]

This is not necessarily indicative.  I drove past four precincts to get lunch.  The only line I saw was that KFC.  In three of the four precincts, there were no voters coming or going; the fourth has a couple leaving.  This was at about 11:30 AM to noon.

There could have been a lot of early voters.

The Chinatown precinct, previously mentioned, is the largest in the city.  Temple University is the only other one with moderately high numbers.

At 12:15 PM we had rain.

[J. J.]

We're at a little over 300 in my division. We have 1,025 registered voters. This is insane turnout for my precinct at this time (and we even had a few minor problems).

You're in one of the more conservative precincts, right?

He is.  Mine are the 90%+.

[J. J.]

Well, Keystone Phil says that his precinct is near a campus....

It's on a campus...in NE Philly. It's one of the most conservative colleges in the area (Catholic). Also, over 95% of the students commute to school so it's not what you're thinking.

Still though, maybe JJ is being a hack and Chinatown WILL go heavily for Obama....so nothing that discouraging yet...

I'm just re-reporting.  Chinatown is evidently the biggest precinct, with 4000 voters.  Temple, (Broad and Susquehanna) is the one with the large turnout.  Those are the ones being reported.

[J. J.]

Approximately, a 25% black voter increase in my precinct, in terms of raw votes.  214 this year to 170 last year.  Virtually no ground game, however.

[J. J.]

Approximately, a 25% black voter increase in my precinct, in terms of raw votes.  214 this year to 170 last year.  Virtually no ground game, however.

What was you're theory... >170 is good for obama or greater than >200?

170 were the Kerry numbers.  I was actually figuring anything greater than 200 was good for Obama.

[J. J.]

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) _ Virginians are voting at a record-setting pace.

The executive secretary of the State Board of Elections said at a briefing in Richmond that 30 percent to 40 percent of the state's more than 5 million registered voters had cast ballots Tuesday morning. Nancy Rodrigues said that typically the turnout is about one-half of that pace.

She estimated that more than 75 percent of Virginia's registered voters will have cast ballots by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.

VA might not be.  We have no real idea who is turning out.

[J. J.]

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) _ Virginians are voting at a record-setting pace.

The executive secretary of the State Board of Elections said at a briefing in Richmond that 30 percent to 40 percent of the state's more than 5 million registered voters had cast ballots Tuesday morning. Nancy Rodrigues said that typically the turnout is about one-half of that pace.

She estimated that more than 75 percent of Virginia's registered voters will have cast ballots by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.

VA might not be.  We have no real idea who is turning out.

what are you responding to?

General trends.  You can tell sometimes (like my precinct) who is doing well statewide by the turnout.  A uniform turnout doesn't mean too much.

Verily, I say unto you, why would I make up positive turnout numbers from North Phila, that are positive for Obama.

[J. J.]

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) _ Virginians are voting at a record-setting pace.

The executive secretary of the State Board of Elections said at a briefing in Richmond that 30 percent to 40 percent of the state's more than 5 million registered voters had cast ballots Tuesday morning. Nancy Rodrigues said that typically the turnout is about one-half of that pace.

She estimated that more than 75 percent of Virginia's registered voters will have cast ballots by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.

VA might not be.  We have no real idea who is turning out.

what are you responding to?

General trends.  You can tell sometimes (like my precinct) who is doing well statewide by the turnout.  A uniform turnout doesn't mean too much.

Verily, I say unto you, why would I make up positive turnout numbers from North Phila, that are positive for Obama.

i didn't say you were spinning.  your comment just made no sense.

I was referring to the poster Verily.  I'm basically saying that turnout itself doesn't tell us much unless you know where it is.