2013 Elections in Germany

[buritobr]

Forsa 14/08/2013
CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 23%
Grünen: 13%
Linkspartei: 8%
FDP: 5%

If the results on the election day were
CDU/CSU: 39,5%      FDP: 5,5%
CDU/CSU+FDP would have 45%

If the results were
CDU/CSU: 40,5%      FDP: 4,5%
CDU/CSU+FDP would have 40,5% because FDP would have zero


Do you consider the possibility that some CDU voters cast a strategic vote for the FDP in order to secure that FDP have seats in the Bundestag?
Is it possible that too many CDU voters do that and then the final results be 35% to CDU/CSU and 10% to FDP?

[buritobr]

It is not very hard to control the FDP loan vote. It is necessary only to say: "CDU voters born on January will vote FDP. The CDU voters keep voting CDU"

[buritobr]

1972
SPD = 45,8%

2009
SPD+Linke+Grunen = 45,6%

[buritobr]

CSU+FDP+FW are down 1,7% in comparison to 2008

[buritobr]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

[buritobr]

Average of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Forsa, Allensbach, TNS Emnid

CDU/CSU: 39,50%
SPD: 26,50%
Grünen: 9,25%
Linke: 8,75%
FDP: 5,25%

Schwarz-gelb: 44,75%
Rot-rot-grün: 44,50%

[buritobr]

How much steel was produced in Germany in 2013? The vote on the SPD is usually close to the production of steel in Germany.

[buritobr]

The left-wing bloc (SPD+Grünen+Linke) had a sum of 42,5% of the vote. It lost 3% in comparison to 2009. In 2009, there was already a loss in comparison to 2005.

However, it is not "schlecht" if one compares to the historical vote of the left in the postwar Germany. In the 1980s, when there was no Linke, the sum of the votes for the SPD and Greens used to be close to 42,5%. In the 1970s, when there was no Linke and Greens, the vote on the SPD used to be between 40% and 45%.

So, the vote on the left today was close to the historical vote on the left in the postwar Germany, which used to oscilate between 40% and 45%.


But the CDU, the SPD, the FDP and the Greens moved to the right from the 1980s to the present day.

[buritobr]

Is it still possible a red-red-green coalition?

Steinbruck promised during the campaign to not build this coalition, and conceded to Merkel after the 41,5% to the Union.

But what's if no agreement between the Union and one of the other parties is reached after one month and the people get tired?

A red-red-green coalition could be considered not representative of the will of the German people because the left-wing parties had together 43% of the vote and the right-wing parties had 53%. But rules are rules... According to rules that existed since 1949, the left-wing parties got a slight majority of the Bundestag (This is a good rule, because the FRG has a much more stable political system than the Republic of Weimar had).



George W Bush became the president of the United States without having the majority of the popular vote.

[buritobr]

1. Why did the sum SPD+Greens+Left loose more votes in the East than in the West from 2009 to 2013? Even the SPD gains were smaller in the East than in the West.

2. Why, even considering this defeat, are voters from East Germany more leftist than voters from other former communist countries?

[buritobr]

Why there is no equilibrium between the CDU/CSU and the SPD? From 1949 to 2013, the SPD had  the chancellery for only 20 years. There were 18 federal elections and the SPD had more votes than the CDU/CSU only in 1972, 1998 and 2005. The margin in these three elections were small, while the CDU/CSU had huge victories until 1965 and after 1983.

There is much more equilibrium between the Labour and the Tories, the PSOE and the PP, the Democratics and the Republicans.

[buritobr]

Thank you for the answers and sorry for my mistake.

The SPD had more votes than CDU/CSU in 2002 and not 2005