Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016

[buritobr]

Details of the Datafolha poll

Rio de Janeiro

Male
Marcelo Crivella 30%
Marcelo Freixo 12%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 7%
Carlos Osório 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 6%

Female
Marcelo Crivella 25%
Marcelo Freixo 14%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 6%


Age: 16-24
Marcelo Crivella 23%
Marcelo Freixo 26%
Pedro Paulo 3%
Índio da Costa 9%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 9%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 25-34
Marcelo Crivella 27%
Marcelo Freixo 18%
Pedro Paulo 9%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 35-44
Marcelo Crivella 26%
Marcelo Freixo 16%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 7%
Carlos Osório 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 7%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 45-59
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 8%
Pedro Paulo 12%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3%
Jandira Feghali 7%

Age: 60-
Marcelo Crivella 28%
Marcelo Freixo 7%
Pedro Paulo 14%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 7%


Household income: < 2 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 36%
Marcelo Freixo 6%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 9%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 8%

Household income: between 2 and 5 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 13%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Household income: between 5 and 10 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 17%
Marcelo Freixo 21%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 4%

Household income: >10 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 6%
Marcelo Freixo 25%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 4%


Elementary
Marcelo Crivella 42%
Marcelo Freixo 3%
Pedro Paulo 13%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 1%
Jandira Feghali 9%

High School
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 10%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 7%
Jandira Feghali 5%

College
Marcelo Crivella 13%
Marcelo Freixo 25%
Pedro Paulo 7%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%
Jandira Feghali 5%

[buritobr]

Exit polls will be released at 5 pm in the main Brazilian time
Maybe, after 2 hours, 100% of the votes will have been counted

[buritobr]

Exit polls

São Paulo
João Dória (PSDB) 48%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 20%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 14%
Marta (PMDB) 11%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 4%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 30%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 20%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 15%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 12%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 9%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 7%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 4%

[buritobr]

Donald Trump was elected mayor of São Paulo.

Runoff in Rio de Janeiro is Bernie Sanders vs. Mike Huckabee

[buritobr]

Do you understand Portuguese?
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/as-semelhancas-entre-joao-doria-e-donald-trump/

I am lazy to translate now

[buritobr]

Ibope poll, today

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella 46%, Marcelo Freixo 29%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil 41%, João Leite 35%

[buritobr]

Datafolha, today
Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella 43%, Marcelo Freixo 30% (Crivella 58%, Freixo 30% if you consider only the valid votes)

[buritobr]

Final results

Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Crivella 59.4%, Marcelo Freixo 40.6%
Belo Horizonte: Kalil 53.0%, João Leite 47.0%
Curitiba: Rafael Greca 53.3%, Leprevost 46.7%
Porto Alegre: Nelson Marchezan 60.5%, Sebastião Melo 39.5%
Fortaleza: Roberto Claudio 53.6%, Capitão Wagner 46.4%
Recife: Geraldo Julio 61.3%, João Paulo 38.7%

[buritobr]

Results by neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro.
http://especiais.g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2016/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/2-turno/

I have never seen before a so strong reverse income gap. Marcelo Freixo, the left-wing candidate, did well in the upper income neighborhoods, and Marcelo Crivella, the right-wing candidate, did well in the lower income neighborhoods.

[buritobr]

Results by neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro.
http://especiais.g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2016/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/2-turno/

I have never seen before a so strong reverse income gap. Marcelo Freixo, the left-wing candidate, did well in the upper income neighborhoods, and Marcelo Crivella, the right-wing candidate, did well in the lower income neighborhoods.

I think religion was the main factor. The fact that Crivella is a IURD guy, was very appealing to poorer voters. More educated and wealthy voters know how IURD is and works, so they could never support a candidate like that. Maybe it was a difficult pill to swallow, but Freixo was more acceptable to them.

Sure. Most of the middle class voters chose the "lesser of the two evils". There were ones who voted for Crivella, because they though that the left was worse. There were ones who voted for Freixo, because they though that the pentecostal evangelical church was worse. Many middle class voters nulified their votes.
I voted for Freixo not because he was the lesser of the two evils. I voted for him because I though that he was the best candidate. I voted for him in the first round too.

[buritobr]

Overall, very good results for the PSDB. Very good indeed. The PT appears to have begun a downward spiral.

Buritobr, who do you think has the best chance to became the PSDB candidate in 2018, and probably President? Neves or Alckmin?

Alckmin is in a much stronger position. All of his candidates won the elections for mayor in the cities in the state of São Paulo. Aécio Neves' candidate João Leite lost the election in Belo Horizonte.
Besides, Operation Lava Jato hurted Aécio.

I think that the runoff in 2018 will have two candidates born in the small town of Pindamonhangaba: Geraldo Alckmin and Ciro Gomes.