Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[buritobr]

I believe in the full numbers because the other institutes are showing similar numbers.

But the numbers of the sub-groups are really very strange in Poder Data Polls. Maybe, the cause is the bias of small samples.

There is a gender gap, all the polls show it, Bolsonaro has higher approval rates in the group of men (shame to be man). But this gap showed by Poder Data is too high. Besides, Lula usually had more votes in the group of male voters too. Even in 2010, Dilma Rousseff performed better in the group of male voters than in the group of female voters (a surprise for observers from other countries, a left-wing woman had more male voters). Only in 2014 and 2018, PT performed better in the group of female voters. I believe that if Lula decides to be the candidate in 2022, he will perform better in the group of women, but the gap won't be the one Poder Data is showing.

Yes, sometimes Bolsonaro is more popular in the group of young, sometimes in the group of old people, sometimes in the group of the poor, sometimes in the group of rich. Probably, biased small samples.

[buritobr]

Supreme Court decided (8 vs 3 votes) that Moro's sentence against Lula was not valid. Now, it is almost sure that Lula will be allowed to run.

[buritobr]

President of PSDB said that Tasso Jereissati can be the party's candidate in 2022. He was governor and senator of Ceará for a long time. He used to be Ciro Gomes's ally (maybe he is still now).
Until last week, Jereissati was not mentioned. PSDB most mentioned names were João Dória and Eduardo Leite. The party could also support Luciano Huck or a DEM candidate.
Jereissati is a member of PSDB since this party was founded in 1988. He is on the left of the average of the new party members, but it is not very hard.

[buritobr]

Usually, there is the census in every year in which the end is 0. The 2020 census was delayed to 2021 because of the pandemic. Now, it was announced that the census will take place in 2022, due to the budget cuts in 2021.
There was delay of the census in 2 administrations: Collor and Bolsonaro

[buritobr]

Levy Fidelix, presidential candidate many times, passed away. He was 69. He used to have less than 1% in every election. His main proposal used to be the building of elevated trains in big cities. Fidelix was a member of PRTB, the same party of the vice president Hamilton Mourão.
In a presidencial debate in 2014, he said that he disliked gays because the organ used for defecation is not useful for reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NPea2dyaEA

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro is declining. He has 1/3 in the polls because there are still 17 months to the election and, of course, more people know the incumbent and the ex-president. When a non-Bolsonaro right-wing candidate starts the campaign in August 2022, he/she can increase, and there is the possibility of Bolsonaro not going to the runoff.
However, we should not consider he is dead. Most of the >60 population has already received the 1st dose of the vaccine. By the end of April, all the >60 population will have already received the 1st dose. By the end of May, all the >60 population will haver already received the 2nd dose. So, in the late June, the number of people going to hospitals will strongly decline. Of course <60 people need hospitals too, not 100% of the >60 received the vaccines, the efficacy is not 100%. But, anyway, in the second semester of 2021, the pandemic will not be the most important issue of the country anymore. Bolsonaro's administration is a full disaster in all issues, not only the pandemic: economy, environment, international relations, human rights, education... But most of the oppostion's speech is still focused in the pandemic. In the 2nd semester, the opposition will need to change the topic.

[buritobr]

Brazil Senate opens pandemic probe, adding to pressure on Bolsonaro

BRASILIA (Reuters) - A Senate inquiry into the Brazilian government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic kicked off on Tuesday, with lawmakers launching what may be a major headache for President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of next year’s election.
Nearly 400,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Brazil, the second-highest death toll in the world after the United States. Bolsonaro, a far-right former army captain, has drawn harsh criticism due to his long-running efforts to minimize the dangers of the virus, shun masks and push unproven remedies.

The inquiry will be overseen by Senator Renan Calheiros, a veteran lawmaker and Bolsonaro critic responsible for the final report. Procedural decisions will fall to Senator Omar Aziz, from the hard-hit state of Amazonas, as committee president and Senate opposition leader Randolfe Rodrigues as vice president.

The probe is expected to focus on the government’s delays in securing vaccines, including the details of drawn-out negotiations with foreign drugmakers, and missteps in Amazonas, where an infectious new variant sprung up late last year.

Beyond the new facts uncovered, the inquiry is expected to generate a political spectacle, with lawmakers pinning Bolsonaro on the ropes ahead of next year’s fraught presidential election, where he is almost certain to seek re-election.

Although the probe could add to calls for impeachment of Bolsonaro, experts say that is an unlikely outcome. Instead, they suggested the government could deflect blame toward former Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello, who oversaw the chaos in Amazonas and has been criticized for slow vaccine negotiations.

Bolsonaro’s early efforts to undermine the probe reflect its potential to cause him damage. He and his allies strove to have Calheiros removed from leading the inquiry, alleging he could not be impartial as his son is the governor of Alagoas state, and the inquiry will probe federal funding of state programs.

Carla Zambelli, a lower house lawmaker and Bolsonaro ally, convinced a court to block Calheiros on Monday night, but the decision was later reversed by another federal court.

On Tuesday, Calheiros said he would act impartially and that the probe would be “deep, technical, focused on its objectives and depoliticized.”

“The country has a right to know who contributed to the thousands of deaths, and they should be punished,” he added.

He said he had proposed calling for testimony from current Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga, as well as his predecessors during the pandemic, including Pazuello.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL1N2MK21V

[buritobr]

Anvisa (the brazilian FDA) denied permission to the russian vaccine Sputnik V. According to Anvisa, the Institute Gamaleya didn't provide enough documents showing the evidence of the efficacy.
Since it was found that Trump administration advised Latin American governments not to purchase Sputnik V, there was the suspicion that this decision was influenced by politics. 60 countries have allowed the use of Sputnik V. However, the report considering that the documents provided by Gamaleya were not enough were written by the scientists who are employed at Anvisa much time before Bolsonaro became the president of Brazil. Even opponents of Bolsonaro considered that the decision of Anvisa was supported by scientific facts (I don't have opinion about it yet).
Until now, Brazil is using only Coronavac and Oxford AstraZeneca. Some Pfizer doses will arrive in June.

[buritobr]

As I mentioned, I trust in the full results of Poder Data polls, but not in the sub-groups. Maybe, there is the small sample bias. The approval rates change a lot according to income groups from one survey to another. Besides, only Poder Data shows low approval rate for Bolsonaro in the Midwest. Other polls show that the Midwest is the region where the approval rate is the highest one.
The Midwest region is the most important region of the agrobusiness.

[buritobr]

Unlike the previous Datafolha polls, this poll was conducted by interviewing people at the streets and not by phone. Offline Datafolha polls are more reliable and closer to polls from other institutes made by phone. Datafolha polls made by phone used to overestimate Bolsonaro's approval rate.

[buritobr]

Details of Datafolha Poll

Total: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Gender
Men: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
Women: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 11%

Age
16-24: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 8%, other 14%
25-34: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 11%
35-44: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 9%
45-59: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%
60-: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 11%

School
Elementary: Lula 51%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 4%, Ciro Gomes 2%, other 9%
High School: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
College: Lula 30%, Bolsonaro 22%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 11%, other 15%

Monthy Household Income
- US$400: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 8%
US$400-US$1000: Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
US$1000-US$2000: Lula 26%, Bolsonaro 30%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 10%, other 14%
US$2000-: Lula 18%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 10%, Ciro Gomes 13%, other 22%

Region
Southeast: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 12%
South: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 3%, other 12%
Northeast: Lula 56%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 3%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 6%
Center-West/North: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 12%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Type of municipality
Metro area: Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 24%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 12%
Countryside: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 23%, Moro 7%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%

Race
Brown: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 25%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 5%, other 10%
White: Lula 32%, Bolsonaro 27%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 7%, other 13%
Black: Lula 53%, Bolsonaro 14%, Moro 5%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 9%

Religion
Catholic: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 8%, Ciro Gomes 6%, other 10%
Evangelic: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 34%, Moro 6%, Ciro Gomes 4%, other 11%

other = Huck + Doria + Mandetta + Amoedo

[buritobr]

Yeah.
Always when Lula ran for president, between 1989 and 2006, he had more male vote than female vote. Even in 2010, his candidate Dilma Rousseff had more male vote than female vote. It is a shock for people from other countries: a left-wing woman performed better in the group of men than in the group of women. In 2014, however, Dilma had more female voters. One of the motives is that Aécio Neves had sexist attitudes. In 2018, Haddad performed much better in the group of women. Other motive of the change was the feminist wave in Latin America, including Brazil, in the 2010s.
Lula has a group of low income elementary school male voters who don't vote for PT for other offices. In many poor municipalities in the North and Northeast in which Lula was >80% in 2006, there is no PT vereador.

Brazilian left has a problem: no leader other than Lula is able to have high popularity in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Other PT politicians, and also PSOL, PCdoB and PDT politicians fail to have popularity in the group of voters who don't have college degree. Lula, on the other side, performs much better in the group of voters who have only elementary school.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro WAS expected to win in 2018. During all 2017 and 2018, he was leading the polls in which Lula was not included.

[buritobr]

Yesterday and today, former health minister general Eduardo Pazuello was interrogated by the senators in the pandemic inquiry. On Tuesday, former ministry pf foreign affairs Ernesto Araújo was interrogated. Since both former minnisters are still Bolsonaro's allies, their testimonials didn't hurt the president.

The testimonials from the director of Pfizer in Brazil and from former minister of health Henrique Mandetta caused bigger damage to Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Former presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luís Inácio Lula da Silva had a meeting. Cardoso told that if the PSDB candidate fail to reach the runoff in 2022, he will endorse Lula against Bolsonaro.

Nice to see leaders who, despite the differences, try to sit and talk against a common (and horrible) enemy.

[buritobr]

In many large cities, there were demonstrations for the impeachment of Bolsonaro. They were the first big left-wing demonstrations since the beggining of the pandemic.

During these 15 months, many leaders of left-wing parties considered that it would be contradictory criticize the lack of policies related to the pandemic and call for demonstrations. Many protests during this period were made online, or with cacerolazzos at the windows of flats or using cars.

But today, the left-wing parties decided to call for the demonstrations. The risk of transmission is low in open spaces, where everybody is using mask and keeping safe distance.

[buritobr]

Probably Lula is most likely to beat Bolsonoaro. I'd like some younger center-left politician, but Bolsonaro is a fascist and whoever stands the greatest chance should challenge him.

I would like to see Lula replaced by someone younger as the most important leader of the Brazilian left too. The problem is that no one other than Lula in the left is popular in the group of voters who don't have a college degree. Fernando Haddad, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Manuela dÁvila are more popular in the very educated segment of the middle class.

However, I would vote for Lula not only if the runoff is between him and Bolsonaro. I would also vote for Lula if the runoff is between him and someone from the non Bolsonaro right, like João Doria, Eduardo Leite, Tasso Jereissati and Luciano Huck.

[buritobr]

Maybe, after the disaster of Bolsonaro, the left performs better in 2022. Guilherme Boulos is leading the polls for governor of São Paulo. Marcelo Freixo is leading the polls for governor of Rio de Janeiro. Boulos and Freixo will probably be the PSOL candidates for governor of their states.
https://revistaforum.com.br/politica/boulos-aparece-em-primeiro-para-o-governo-de-sp-em-cenario-com-haddad-marcio-franca-e-skaf-diz-atlas-politico2/
https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2021/06/02/marcelo-freixo-lidera-pesquisa-de-intencao-de-voto-para-o-governo-do-rio-de-janeiro?fbclid=IwAR1LBYphOH2g3IWcIuIifIGp4IWdO6gtW7O5B-Wl-MaTe60IkRUYBA4UGHw
PSOL is divided concerning the candidate for president in 2022. The moderate and majority wing think that PSOL should endorse Lula already in the 1st round, in order to avoid the split of the left-wing vote. This split could cause a runoff between center-right and Bolsonaro (similar to France 2002). The far left wing considers that PSOL should have a candidate in the 1st round and they are considering the possibility of the very left-wing representative Glauber Braga.

[buritobr]

The 2021 Copa America (that would be 2020 Copa America) would be hosted by Argentina and Colombia. Both countries declined due to the pandemic and all the crisis related to the pandemic.

Brazil will host the tournment, as if there were no serious problems here. Most of the soccer managers ("cartolas") in Brazil are very close to Bolsonaro. The games will be played in empty stadiums, but the biggest problem is not the virus spread during the games. The biggest problem is that we should have focus in other priorities.

[buritobr]

Brazil uses electronic voting machines in every precint. The proceeding of the votes is the fastest of the countries which have >100M inhabitants. The machines have a flopy disk. They are not connected to the Internet. There is no danger of a hacker attack. It is possible to make auditing of the polls.
However, Bolsonaro and his cattle are giving alegations that these polls are not safe, that frauds might occur. Actually, the electronic machines are much safer than paper ballots. He is demading that the votes casted in the machine should be printed and that these papers should be counted in order to check if they match to the electronic result. Of course, there will be no time to add a printer in every machine until October 2022. Besides, the costs would be very high. The results of the paper count would not be equal to the electronic results in 100% of the precints because in some precints, someone could loose some pieces of paper.
The consequence of this distrust would be an excuse to Bolsonaro and his cattle create a turmoil in 2022 if he looses, like Trump did this year and Keiko Fujimori is doing now. In the US, however, the votes Trump's base didn't trust were paper votes sent by mail.

Some countries don't trust in elections without paper. The Supreme Court in Germany didn't alow electronic vote. But there was never evidence that electronic voting in Brazil was rigged. This distrust made by Bolsonaro is useful to weaken the democracy in Brazil.

[buritobr]

Lula's margin against Bolsonaro decreased from April to June.
The other possible candidates did better in June than they did in April.

[buritobr]

Marcelo Freixo was one of the most important PSOL leaders. He used to be state representative of Rio de Janeiro, and now he is a federal representative. He ran for mayor of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro in 2012 and 2016 and he was the 2nd place the two times. He never ran for governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, because the elections for governor and for representative take place at the same time.
Today, he decided to leave PSOL and join PSB, a more moderate party. He will run for governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2022. He considered that he would not be competitive in PSOL, since far-left groups inside the party don't support broad coalitions. Probably, PT will endorse Freixo, who met Lula yesterday. Freixo's wife joined PT. Freixo will be advised by many experts and some of them are not very leftist. In economics, he will be advised by the young rising left-wing star Laura Carvalho but he will also be advised by former PSDB economist André Lara Resende. Both economists had a PhD in the New School of Social Research in NYC. In law enforcement, Freixo will be advised by former minister Raul Jungmann, who worked for Temer's administration (2016-2018).
Freixo's plan is not to have a left vs right contest, but a civilization vs barbarian contest. Probably, his opponent will be someone endorsed by Bolsonaro.

I am following the thread about Germany and I am reading about internal disputes inside the Linke. PSOL is the brazilian copy of the Linke and it is facing similar problems. Both parties don't have a single program, they are umbrellas of different left-wing organizations, and each of these organizations try to control the party.
PSOL lost 3 important members in Rio de Janeiro in the last month: former vereador Renato Cinco left PSOL because he is not considering this party left-wing enough. Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys left PSOL because they are considering this party too left-wing. Jean Wyllys, who was an important federal representative, joined PT.
Despite internal disputes, Freixo didn't left PSOL because of these disputes. According to the reaction of his fellows, it is possible to conclude that there was no fight. He will keep a good relation with PSOL. But he thinks he will be more competititive in a more centrist party.

[buritobr]

If they are tied now, good news for Khalil. Of course Zema has the advantage of being incumbent, and so, 16 months before the election, more people know him. During the campaign, more people of the countryside will hear about Khalil. In Belo Horizonte, where people are ruled both by Zema and Khalil, the mayor has a big margin.

Good news for Lula he is leading against Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais. During the New Republic (1985-present), Minas Gerais is the bellwether state. All winning presidential candidates had the majority of votes in this state. The margins are usually close to the national margin. Minas Gerais is like what Ohio was until 2012.

[buritobr]

Luciano Huck and João Amoedo told that they will not run for president in 2022

[buritobr]

There were very big demonstrations against Bolsonaro in Brazilian big cities
In open spaces, where everybody wear masks, the risk is low
I didn't go because the place where the demonstration was scheduled in Rio de Janeiro (Avenida Presidente Vargas) is far from my home and I would need to take the metro. Open spaces are safe, but the public transportation is not.
After everyone have the vaccine, the demonstrations will be even bigger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/19/fresh-protests-in-brazil-against-bolsonaros-handling-of-covid-pandemic