Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

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Brazil's economic minister causes uproar mentioning dictatorship decree

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two of Brazil’s former presidents, a chief justice and heads of both chambers of Congress on Tuesday repudiated the country’s economy minister for saying the government might take draconian steps if leftist opponents stirred up protests such as those in Chile.
Speaking in Washington on Monday about turmoil in neighboring countries, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes told reporters not to be surprised if somebody called for an AI-5, a measure decreed by the 1964-1985 military dictatorship to close Congress and suppress dissent.

His remarks come weeks after the release from prison of leftist ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, setting the stage for political confrontation with right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula has vowed to unite the left behind his Workers Party to win the 2022 elections.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-guedes/brazils-guedes-causes-anger-by-reference-to-dictatorship-decree-idUSKBN1Y01XK

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Look how bizarre


Jair Bolsonaro
Brazil’s president claims DiCaprio paid for Amazon fires
Jair Bolsonaro falsely accuses actor of funding deliberate destruction of rainforest
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/29/brazils-president-claims-dicaprio-paid-for-amazon-fires

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Trump renews tariff threat on Brazil and Argentina

Bolsonaro behaves like a Trump's pet and we win nothing!

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Datafolha Poll December 8th 2019

Bolsonaro's administration rating
30% Good/Very good
32% Regular
36% Bad/Very bad

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Jair's son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is investigated because he is suspicious to have employed fake employees in his cabinett (every representative and senator is allowed to employ some staff) in order to take their wages. Flavio is having trouble to explain how can he own flats whose value is much higher than someone who earns only the wage of a congressman can buy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50859314

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Comedian group Porta dos Fundos (translation: backdoor) led by Gregório Duvivier made a short movie about a Jesus Christ who goes back home and presents his new boyfriend to his father.

The office of Porta dos Fundos was attacked by homemade bombs. It is suspicious that far-right religious groups could have been responsible for the attack.

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Secretary of Culture, announcing an art contest, reproduced a Goebbels's speech, using exactly the same words. Of course, the German Ambassy, the Jewish Association complained.
Not good for a president and for a minister of foreign affairs who told last year that national socialism was left-wing.

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Some jews support Bolsonaro because he is the most pro-Israel brazilian leader.

Yes, the far-right has a double view about the jews. The intelectual leader of the brazilian government, the former astrologist Olavo de Carvalho is very pro Israel but sometimes he has some dog whistles, like considering George Soros evil, considering the Frankfurt School evil.

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Brazilian picture "Democracy on the edge" is an Oscar nominee in the best documentary category.
It is a left-wing view of the political events in Brazil in the 2010s. The director was born in 1984, the year of the redemocratization in Brazil, and her main argument is that between 1984 and 2014, there was a hope that Brazil could become a full democracy like a developed country, but events that led to Dilma Rousseff's impeachment and Lula's prision made the Brazilian democracy rigged.

Of course, right-wing politicians and journalists disliked the movie. Bolsonaro used his official twitter to say that director Petra Costa is against Brazil.

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News from Brazil:

A police officer from Rio de Janeiro, who takes part in the militia (the mafia of policemen) and is a friend of the Bolsonaro family, was killed by the police in Bahia. Probably it was an execution, and not an attempt to resist to an arrest order. The left usually says that it was an operation in order to keep silence and avoid the policeman to speak about his ties with Bolsonaro family. Although the governor of Bahia belongs to PT, policemen usually support Bolsonaro, no matter the party of the governor of the state. Bolsonaro family usually says that the PT governor wanted to kill the policeman.

During the 2018 campaign, newspaper Folha de S. Paulo published news about businessmen who paid to ilegal campaign in Whatsapp. This ilegal campaign used many hoaxes. Last week, a former worker of the firm who put the ilegal advertising in Whatsapp accused Folha's journalist to offer sex in exchange for information. He didn't show any proof. This week, Bolsonaro repeated the accusation. So, we can see that he committed both false accusation and sexism.

There is a strike of military police in the state of Ceará. Former governor Cid Gomes, brother of the 2018 candidate Ciro Gomes, try to get closer to the demonstration of the policemen, driving a tractor, in order to negotiate. Cid Gomes was shot, but his life is not in danger.

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Today, IBGE announced that the brazilian GDP grew 1.1% in 2019, after 1.3% growth in 2017 and 2018. Chicago economics, which started in the second (short) Dilma's term in 2015, was made more intense by Temer after May 2016 and became even stronger under Bolsonaro (and his minister Paulo Guedes), showed mediocre results.

When talking to this result to the media, Bolsonaro, instead of being serious, put a comedian imitating him to distribute bananas to the journalists.

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World's biggest meat company linked to 'brutal massacre' in Amazon

A new investigation has linked the world’s biggest meat company JBS, and its rival Marfrig, to a farm whose owner is implicated in one of the most brutal Amazonian massacres in recent memory.

The report by Repórter Brasil comes as JBS faces growing pressure over transparency failings in its Amazon cattle supply chain.

On 19 April 2017, nine men were brutally murdered in what became known as the “Colniza massacre”. The men had been squatting on remote forest land in the state of Mato Grosso when their bodies were found, according to court documents. Some showed signs of torture; some had been stabbed, others shot.

Interesting to know who are the firms behind crimes against Amazon and its peoples

I suggest also to read this article https://theintercept.com/2019/08/27/amazon-rainforest-fire-blackstone/

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One member of Jair Bolsonaro's staff has coronavirus. He was diagnosed after returning from Florida. The test showed positive result. Bolsonaro took the test today and the result will be released tomorrow. We will see if he is infected too.

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Hard week in Brazil:

Bolsonaro called protests against the Congress and the Supreme Court because he says that both are harming his job. It is democratic to show dissatisfaction against the branches of power. However, some far-right groups who support Bolsonaro call for shut the Congress and the Supreme Court, like a Fujimori style coup. According to the Article 85 of the Federal Constitution, threat to democratic institution is an offense which justifies impeachment.

There are lots of political and economic uncertainties: US$1=R$4.20 at the beggining of 2020. Today, the dollar reached R$5.

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Do you know what do "dumb people" mean? See this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBifclVeFh8

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Impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro is already discussed by some politicians. Threat to democratic institutions and mismanagement of the cov19 crisis are the motives.
On Monday, one representative of Rede (Marina Silva's party) sent an impeachment request to the House. Two days later, three representatives of PSOL sent another impeachment request. The president of PSOL told that these three representatives were acting by themselves and not in the name of the party. He told that the direction of the party considers that impeachment is not the priority now.

To be approved, the impeachment request should by accepted by the president of the House Rodrigo Maia. Than, it should be approved by a special comission in the House, and then, it needs 2/3 of the votes of the whole House. Then, it needs 2/3 of the votes of the Senate.
Maia, although a conservative, is doing several criticism on Bolsonaro's administration. But he is not going to accept the request until he is sure that there will be more than 2/3 of the votes. If the impeachment goes to vote and fails to reach 2/3, Bolsonaro can get stronger.

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I think after this week, more than 2/3 of both houses would support impeachment, but it is not good a political crisis during a public health crisis. That's why even the mainstream PSOL thinks that it is not the time for impeachment (the far left wing of the party is campaigning for impeachment).

Bolsonaro is dealing very bad with Covid. He believes in far-right anti-scientific propaganda which says that shut-down is not necessary. His son believes in conspiracy theories about China. At least the governors, even the most conservative ones, are making a good job and making the shut-down by themselves. And bureacratic workers in public organizations, like the Ministry of Health, universities and research institutes have some autonomy against crazy elected politicians.

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Mourão is horrible, but he is not as bad as Bolsonaro

In the TV on Tuesday, Bolsonaro told that the shut down is destroying jobs, that for people who are not old the covid is "just a flu" (against all the scientists). He is putting the lives of many people in danger. In the following day, Mourão told that he supports the shut down.
The governors and mayors ignored Bolsonaro and kept the shut down.


Concerning the impeachment, the biggest problem is the time: it takes long time to the special commission of the House discuss the request, to the presentation of the accusation, to the presentation of the defense. The time between the president of the House accept the request and the final vote in the House takes at least 2 months. It is dangerous to do this now when the country (and the world) is facing a public health crisis.

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Very hard, the Congress should work on other issues too

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I have a few questions about Brazil’s President-namely, how?? And why? Let me elaborate.
Number one, how exactly did he get elected? Was it a similar thing to Trump in that he ran so anti-establishment?
Not exactly. He had an speech against political establishment (although he was a congressman for 28 years) but unlike Trump, he had more free-market views and than he was strongly supported by the upper middle class. Bolsonaro was polling 20% until August. Many political scientists though that Alckmin (PSDB) would overtake him and represent the right in the runoff, since Alckmin had a strong party machine. But after the attack with knife, it became impossible to overtake him. In the runoff, the upper middle class who used to vote for PSDB voted for him because the opponent Haddad was a PT candidate and many people think "Bolsonaro is not good, but nothing is worse than PT" (a stupid way of thinking).

Two, is he popular? He seems to me to like a James Bond villain. He seems super racist towards the Amazon tribes, super arrogant, and shows a huge amount of apathy towards the environment or science. Other past Presidents have criticized him, notably Lulu de Silva.
In the polls conducted before covid crisis, 1/3 considered his administration good/very good, 1/3 considered regular, and 1/3 considered bad/very bad. The three groups who most support him are the landowner (before of the more "flexible" rules concerning environment), the business sector (because of the free market reforms) and the evangelicals

Lastly, why does it seem he is getting away with everything? Is it corruption? He has repeatedly called COVID-19 a media hoax and has gutted the Amazon, and it doesn’t seem as though anybody can really stop him.
Even conservative governors of São Paulo (João Doria) and Rio de Janeiro (Wilson Witzel) turned against him, the president of the House Rodrigo Maia too, but as I told in the Brazil thread, it is very hard to conduct a impeachment process during a public health crisis, since it takes at least 2 months in the House and 2 months in the Senate

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I realize it is still quite a ways off, but how do Bolsonaro's reelection prospects look? Is he favoured or an underdog?

Also, considering how fractured Brazil's Congress is, does he have support there to impose his policies?

Well, during 2019, Bolsonaro always had the good/very good rating in the polls between 30% and 40%. It is too high considering how horrible he is, but it is the lowest approval rate for an elected president in the first year of the first term (worse than Collor 1990, Fernando Henrique Cardoso 1995, Lula 2003 and Dilma Rousseff 2011). But when simulation polls were done for 2022, he would still defeat a PT candidate in the runoff, no matter if the PT candidate is Lula or Haddad.
After the covid, no national polls were done, but a poll made by phone in the city of São Paulo showed 26% good/very good, 25% regular and 48% bad/very bad.

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There was no coup, but Bolsonaro is becoming less and less important. He talks to his cattle that he is against the shutdown, but since the governors, the mayors, the congress, the supreme court, the military, and even the minister of health are supporting the shutdown, the shutdown is going on.

In this week, the congress approved a R$600 (US$120) monthly transfer for workers who do not have a regular job. It is hard for these workers to earn money during the shutdown. Bolsonaro and Guedes used bureacratic constraints to delay these payments: they want to turn these starving people against the governors and mayors who ordered the shutdown. Maybe, the transfers will start this week.

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Datafolha Poll April 3rd 2020

A sample of 1500 brazilians were interviewed by phone

Rating of Bolsonaro's administration
Good/Very good: 33%
Regular: 25%
Bad/Very bad: 39%

Age
16-24: 24% g vg, 30% r, 45% b vb
25-34: 30% g vg, 22% r, 47% b vb
35-44: 38% g vg, 24% r, 36% b vb
45-59: 35% g vg, 22% r, 40% b vb
60-: 37% g vg, 29% r, 31% b vb

School
Elementary: 34% g vg, 28% r, 35% b vb
High School: 35% g vg, 25% r, 38% b vb
College: 28% g vg, 20% r, 50% b vb

Income (1 Minimum Wage = R$1000 monthly = US$200 monthly)
<2MW: 32% g vg, 26% r, 40% b vb
2-5 MW: 35% g vg, 27% r, 36% b vb
5-10 MW: 36% g vg, 20% r, 42% b vb
>10 MW: 32% g vg, 21% r, 46% b vb

Some of you might think: how this horrible president and horrible person has 1/3 of approval rate? Most of the evangelic churches support him, and many evangelicals are brainwashed.
Some months ago, the upper-income people approve Bolsonaro more than the low-income people because they support Paulo Guedes's economic policies. But after the anti-social distancing views, Bolsonaro lost support of the higher income people. However, he kept the endorsement of many low-income people. They have never heard about an exponential function, and so, they don't understand that most casualities related to the covid19 didn't take place in Brazil now, but they will take place in the next days. Many inhabitants of slums do not have a regular job, they only sell things in the streets, and they are loosing money because of the social distancing.

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Bolsonaro fires popular health minister after dispute over coronavirus response

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

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Sergio Moro accused Jair Bolsonaro of asking him to intervene in investigations conducted by the Federal Police (the Federal Police is branch which belongs to the Ministry of Justice). There are ongoing investigations against Flavio Bolsonaro due to his connections to the organized crime of Rio de Janeiro and against Carlos Bolsonaro because he his suspect of controlling a hoax distribution machine through Whatsapp and Internet against opponents of Bolsonaros.
If this accusation is true, this is a crime of responsability, and an impeachment process can start.