Brazil thread 2023-

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Lula to visit Amazon amid vow to tackle Yanomami Indigenous crisis

Move comes after country’s minister for Indigenous people says issue is an ‘absolute priority’

Brazil’s first-ever minister for Indigenous peoples, Sônia Guajajara, has vowed to make tackling the humanitarian crisis plaguing the country’s largest Indigenous territory “an absolute priority”, as she prepared to fly into the region with the new president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Under the former president, Jair Bolsonaro, thousands of illegal gold miners poured into the Yanomami enclave in the Amazon, bringing violence, pollution and a healthcare calamity captured in a recent series of photographs of severely malnourished children and adults.

On Friday, Lula announced that he and Guajajara would make an emergency visit to the Amazon state of Roraima, where the Yanomami territory is located, to lead the government’s response to the “outrageous levels of malnutrition”.

“Our Yanomami relatives are facing a humanitarian and health crisis. We cannot allow our relatives to die of malnutrition and hunger,” Guajajara tweeted.

In December, shortly before being named minister, Guajajara visited the region to denounce an illegal 75-mile road powerful mining mafias had carved out of the 96,650 sq km (37,300 sq mile) territory.

Interviewed last week in Brasília, she said solving the Yanomami crisis – which had exposed Yanomami children to horrifying levels of malaria, verminosis, malnutrition and diarrhoea – was at the top of her in-tray.

“Every 72 hours a child is dying from one of these illnesses, according to the information we’ve received,” said Guajajara, who was born in the Araribóia territory of the Amazon. “Children are dying because of the polluted water and the lack of food caused by the presence of the illegal miners.”

The 48-year-old politician said she had spoken to Brazil’s new justice minister, Flávio Dino, about launching a major security operation that would deploy troops to expel an estimated 20,000 miners from the supposedly protected territory, where about 27,000 members of the Yanomami and Ye’kwana peoples live.

If Lula’s new government approved such plans, “we will be able to get these invaders out … in less than three months”, Guajajara said.

On Monday, the health ministry dispatched a multidisciplinary team on a 10-day mission to the Yanomami territory to assess the health crisis.

Thousands of tin ore and gold miners were removed from Yanomami lands in the early 1990s after global outrage at their impact on the region’s remote communities. A 9.6m-hectare reserve was created to safeguard Yanomami lives.

But within a decade the prospectors had returned, with the number reaching new heights during Bolsonaro’s 2019-2022 administration as his anti-environmental rhetoric and policies emboldened rainforest wreckers.


Guajajara recognised such an eviction would create an “emergency situation” outside the Yanomami territory, as huge numbers of impoverished garimpeiro (independent prospectors) found themselves out of work.

“These miners come from all over the country and end up being victims of this whole process too. We need to punish the politicians and business people who own these mines,” she said.

“These are the ones who must be penalised. The miners are engaged in illegal activity. But often they’re doing it out of necessity rather than because they want to be. So we consider them victims too.”

Guajajara said another of her ministry’s priorities would be supporting isolated Indigenous groups in the Amazon’s Javari valley region, where the British journalist Dom Phillips and the Brazilian Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira were murdered last June while documenting Indigenous efforts to protect the rainforest.


Guajajara said that seven months on, the Javari continued to be blighted by “violence, persecution and murder” despite the domestic and international outcry.

Beto Marubo, a Javari leader who was close to Pereira, said there had been little sign of action to protect the region’s Indigenous defenders since the two men were shot on the Itaquaí River.

Marubo predicted the newly created ministry for Indigenous peoples would face major obstacles as it pursued ambitious goals.

“We will have to deal with an extremely conservative congress containing people with absolutely no commitment to Indigenous rights or the environment,” he said.

“But it’s undeniably a historic event,” added Marubo, who hoped the start of Lula’s new government – which began on 1 January 2023 – increased the chances there would be justice after the murders of Phillips and Pereira.

In her first speech as minister last week, Guajajara admitted the legacy of centuries of violence and discriminations towards Indigenous people that followed the “discovery” of Brazil in the year 1500 would not be vanquished overnight. “We know it will not be easy to overcome 522 years in four,” she said.

But Guajajara believed Lula was genuinely committed to the Indigenous cause. “He’s not just pretending to support us – he really wants to make a difference and to do things differently to how they were done in the past,” she said.

On Wednesday, during his first major TV interview this year, Lula vowed to “fight tooth and nail” to halt Amazon deforestation by 2030 and announced plans for a special division of the federal police to combat deforestation and drug trafficking.

Guajajara said the new ministry – and the decision to put the Indigenous politician Joênia Wapichana in charge of the Indigenous agency Funai - was the fruit of generations of Indigenous struggle.

“It’s unbelievable. Sometimes it feels like it’s still a dream,” she said. “But when you look back at the journey we made to reach this point, you see that this didn’t happen by chance – and it wasn’t easy.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/brazil-indigenous-minister-sonia-guajajara-yanomami-crisis-illegal-miners

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Center-right senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), endorsed by Lula, was elected president of the Senate. He got 49 votes. Bolsonaro's candidate Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) got 32 votes.

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Florida became a meeting point a Latin American right-wing extremists

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Mean fascist Bolsonaro is sinking off a 30,000 ton aircraft carrier into the Atlantic Ocean after it was denied entry to Turkey. It's filled to the brim with asbestos and other toxic materials. So happy environmentalist Lula will soon take over! Nature will heal...

Oh wait... it was Lula's government who did this?

Communists: committing ecocide everywhere, but it's okay, because they have noble intentions.

The toxic material aboard São Paulo could disrupt ecosystems, kill animals and plants and poison marine food chains with heavy metals, according to IBAMA, Brazil’s environmental agency.

It was a decision of the Navy and not a decision of the government. The Navy decided to sink the aircraft carrier many months ago.

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Since the president is the commander of the three armed forces, Lula could give an order to the Navy to stop the sinking. But there are other trouble with the military, and Lula didn't want an extra one.
We can criticize by saying that this dispute is very important to the environment and Lula should have tried more. But it's not correct to consider Bolsonaro and Lula equal evils on environment. Bolsonaro had a clear intent to make Ibama (the environment protection agency) weaker.

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Lula will travel to the US next Thursday. He will meet Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

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Lula arrived in the US yesterday.

Today, he met Bernie Sanders. You can see that the Vermont senator is very happy in the meeting


Than, he met Joe Biden

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Former president of Brazil Dilma Rousseff is the new president of the Bank of the BRICS. She is now in her new workplace in Shangai

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Bolsonaro returned to Brazil from Orlando this morning on Gol Airlines’ “Harry Potter plane”

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Today, Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad announced the new fiscal rule. The spending of the federal government should grow between 0.6% and 2.5% yearly. The growth of the spending cannot be higher than 70% of the growth of the revenue. Public investment in infra-structure is not included in these limits.
This rule will replace the 2016 Temer's spending cap: according to this old rule, the real public spending was frozen from 2016 to 2026, in order to reduce the public spending/GDP ratio. It was the worst fiscal rule of the history.

It was good that the new fiscal rule occupied a larger share of the news than Bolsonaro's return.

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Today, there was an attack in a kindergarten in Blumenau, a 360,000 inhabitant city, founded by German immigrants in the 19th century, located in the state of Santa Catarina, in the south.

A 25 year old man killed 4 children between 4 and 7 years old and wounded other 4 wielding a hatchet. Attacks in schools are becoming usual in Brazil, like the ones in the US.

10 days ago, there was an attack in a school in São Paulo-SP, where a 71 year old teacher was killed after she had been stabbed.

The difference of the attack today is that it was not conducted by a student, but by someone who doesn't belong to the school. And the murder today didn't committ after the attack like many others. He was arrested.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-65192957

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Lula was wrong in his statement about Sergio Moro, but it looks like most of people forgot it 2 weeks after.
The decision of the Ministry of Finance of closing tax evasion loopholes was correct, but the communication to the public was bad.

Although Lula's approval rate had a slight decline, the difference between approval and disapproval in all polls is still higher than the 1.8% margin of the runoff in 2022.

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Brazilian foreign policy has 2 heads. Mauro Vieira, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has pro West views. Celso Amorin, the personal advisor for foreign affairs of the President of the Republic, has pro BRICS views. Brazil has this office of "personal advisor for foreign affairs of the President of the Republic" because sometimes the President conducts foreign policy directly, without the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty), and so, he has an advisor. This is a way to become not so attached to the professional bureaucracy of the Itamaray diplomats.
In this Lula's 3rd term, there is a slightly shift for the West. During the 1st and 2nd terms (2003-2010), Celso Amorin served as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the already dead Marco Aurélio Garcia, who has even more pro BRICS and pro Latin American populists than Celso Amorin, served as the personal advisor for foreign affairs of the President of the Republic.

Lula's statement on the Russia-Ukraine war he did in United Arab Emirates, in his return of the visit to China, was not good. But he had a better statement today in his visit to Portugal. Lula was also criticized for receiving Lavrov in Brasília, but members of the government said that the Ukrainian ministry of foreign affairs was also invited. Celso Amorin was criticized for visiting Moscow without visiting Kiev, but he promised to visit Kiev in the next days.

Despite the not so good statement on the war, there was no impact on his popularity. According to Quaest Poll, Lula's approval rate fell because the taxation of cheap imported goods.

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Very sad day in Brazil today.

First, former representative and Glenn Greenwald's husband David Miranda (37) passed away. He had been in the hospital in the last 9 months.

Few hours after, Rita Lee (75), the biggest Brazilian female rock star, passed away. He was an iconic figure in the history of the Brazilian popular music.

Both, rest in peace

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Celso Amorim, the president's advisor for foreign relations, traveled to Ukraine, in order to meet Volodymyr Zelensky. He had already met Vladimir Putin in Russia one month ago.
Brazil wants to creat a group of countries in order to mediate a peace agreement.

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CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

International Issues

Brazil's financial assistance to Argentina
24% agree
69% disagree

How should Brazilian government behave concerning the Russia-Ukraine War?
12.1% support Ukraine
41.0% stay neutral
2.0% support Russia
33.3% should not have a position

How do you perceive the position of the Brazilian government?
11.1% supporting Ukraine, USA, EU
36.9% keeping neutral
19.5% supporting Russia, China
32.5% don't know

Most important place for Brazil to strengh relations
43.4% USA
11.6% China
8.5% South America
7.0% EU
1.4% Russia

Complete poll here: https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/governo-lula-e-aprovado-por-43-e-reprovado-por-24-diz-pesquisa-cnt-mda/

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CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

If his approval rating holds, do you think he'll go back on his "no fourth term" pledge?

He already mentioned the possibility of running and not running in 2026. His age can be an issue, but Joe Biden will run in 2024, >80 candidates are not impossible anymore.
Probably Lula will check if one of his ministers or a PT governor or senator have enough popularity. Fernando Haddad would be a natural candidate, since he was already candidate in 2018 and many people know him. But there is a problem: many people in the left don't have a positive view of his job as Minister of Finance. They think that he is too pro-austerity.

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During the G7 meeting in Japan, Zelenski requested a conversation with Lula. After checking the schedule, the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Relations (Itamaraty) offered the possibility of the meeting between Lula and Zelensky on Sunday at 3:15 pm. A room was set for this meeting. Zelenski didn't appear.

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Yesterday, the House approved the new fiscal policy rule. According to the rule proposed by the Ministry of Finance, the federal government spending should grow no less than 0.6% and no more than 2.5% yearly. If the GDP grows more than 2.5%, the federal government spending will have a smaller growth than the GDP. If the GDP grows less than 0.6%, the federal government spending will have a bigger growth than the GDP. The original proposal of Lula's administration didn't include the spending on elementary education in this limit. The representatives of the conservative parties inside the ruling coalition included the spending on elementary education in this limit. Only 2 parties had all their representatives voting against the new fiscal policy rule: the far-right NOVO considered that this rule allows too high spending. The far-left PSOL voted against because of an opposite motive: this party considered that this rule had too much austerity.

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The president doesn't need approval of the Congress to name the ministers, but it's necessary to create new departments. If the Congress didn't approve, the government would be in a trouble. Despite the conservative majority in the House (the "centrão" which is more like a "direitão"), the new organization of the government departments had 337 votes for and 125 votes against in the House yesterday. Today, there were 51 votes for and 19 against in the Senate.
It was a very though negotiation, as it was told here.

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Lula decided to appoint his former personal lawyer Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Court, in order to replace Ricardo Lewandowski, who will get retired. Zanin needs approval of the Senate.
Since presidents name the judges of the Supreme Court, we expect that they follow the political views of the president, like it happens in the USA. But appointing a personal lawyer is not a good idea in ordinary times. However, we don't live in ordinary times.
A further problem: we don't really know Zanin ideological views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer when the president was sued during the Lava Jato Operation.

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As Red Velvet told, according to the Constitution, even a Law degree is not required, althouth all of the judges have it. The "notorius knowledge" is very vague.
Most of the present judges of the Brazilian Supreme Court were never judges before.

Judges of the Supreme Court who were never judges before: Gilmar Mendes (appointed by Fernando Henrique Cardoso), Carmen Lúcia, Dias Toffoli (appointed by Lula), Luís Roberto Barroso, Edson Fachin (appointed by Dilma Rousseff), Alexandre de Moraes (appointed by Michel Temer), André Mendonça (appointed by Jair Bolsonaro)

Judges of the Supreme Court who were judges on lower courts before: Luiz Fux, Rosa Weber (appointed by Dilma Rousseff), Nunes Marques (appointed by Jair Bolsonaro)

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The nomination of Zanin is not a simple left vs right issue.
Lula's attempt to nominate his lawyer received lots of criticism from the left. Many leftists consider that a progressive president shouldn't nominate a white straight man now because in the history of the Brazilian Supreme Court since 1822, there were 170 judges and 165 of them were white straight men. Some leftists also have a preference for someone who has clear left-wing political views. We don't Zanin's political views. We know only that he was Lula's lawyer.
The harshest criticism doesn't come from right-wing politicians. The harshest criticism comes from the pro-PSDB media, who considered Lula the lesser of the evils in the runoff in 2022.
Despite the conservative majority in the Senate, I believe Zanin will be approved, since he hasn't clear left-wing political views.
Except Rosa Weber, who said that someone from a minority would be better, the judges of the Supreme Court had a positive view on Zanin.

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A hot theme in this June 2023 in Brazil is the debate on the legacy of the Protests of June 2013, in the 10th anniversary. These protests were compared to many others in the early 2010s: Arab Spring, Indignados in Spain, London protests, Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street in the US, anti-Erdogan protests in Turkey, Maidan in Ukraine.

The protests of June 2013 were started by the far-left activists of the "Passe Livre", who were protesting agaisnt the raise of the bus and metro fares in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The targets were the PT mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad (today the Minister of Finance), the PSDB governor of the state of São Paulo (former anti-PT, today the vice president), the PMDB mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes (now mayor of Rio again) and governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro Sergio Cabral.
After the first week, the protests became huge and included many right-wing middle class people who had the intent to protest against president Dilma Rousseff (not the original intent of "Passe Livre"). It was the first time since 1964 the right put many people on the streets. This movement was the seed of the 2015/16 yellow T-shirt far-right demonstrators for Dilma's impeachment and later for the election of Jair Bolsonaro.
However, the presence of the right on the streets in 2013 was big but short lived. In the second semester of 2013, the protests continued, but they were led by non-PT left-wing movements. They protested against policies of conservative local governments but they also protested against some Dilma Rousseff's policies: the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil, and the Belo Monte Power Plant in the middle of the Amazon Forest.

In the decade following the protests: Dilma Rousseff's narrow reelection in 2014, the election of a very conservative Congress in the same year, Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, Lava Jato Operation, Lula's trial, Bolsonaro's election in 2018, the tragedy of the Covid19 pandemic, and PT in the federal government again.

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Today the results of the number of people and households of the 2022 Census were finally released, in a public event in Rio de Janeiro. The Census was scheduled to 2020 (every year with 0 in the end), but there was a 2 year delay due to the pandemic. Then, the interviews in every Brazilian household took more time than the expected: due to short budget, the wage of the Census workers was too low and it was hard to attract more personel, another problem was the high number of people who refused to answer to the Census. ~3% of the households had people who refused to answer, it was record in the history of the Census in Brazil. IBGE needed to do estimations due to these household where the answers were lacking. Fake news spread through social networks might be the cause of high refusal rate. The extremes of the Brazilian social piramid were the hardest ones to interview: favelas and upper class condominiums.
Despite the problems, it was possible to finish the Census, after the hard work of many people. We see that public organizations are working in Brazil when we observe that the first half of the Census was conducted under Bolsonaro's administration and the second half of the Census was conducted under Lula's administration. The change of the federal administration had almost no impact in the daily job of the IBGE