2020 Senate Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

June 2020 prediction. I'll make one of these predictions every month or so. Will change with the polls and the general environment, these could be way off come November but it'll be interesting to look back and see how it evolved.

Alabama: 58% Tuberville, 41% Jones
Alaska: 54% Sullivan, 41% Gross
Arizona: 52% Kelly, 46% McSally
Colorado: 53% Hickenlooper, 45% Gardner
Georgia: 52% Perdue, 47% Ossof
Georgia: (Runoff) 51% Collins, 49% Warnock
Iowa: 54% Ernst, 45% Greenfield
Kansas: 57% Marshall, 42% Bollier / 54% Kobach, 45% Bollier
Kentucky: 56% McConnell, 41% McGrath
Maine: 50% Collins, 48% Gideon
Michigan: 51% Peters, 48% James
Minnesota: 52% Smith, 45% Lewis
Mississippi: 55% Hyde-Smith, 44% Espy
Montana: 52% Daines, 46% Bullock
New Hampshire: 54% Shaheen, 44% Republican
North Carolina: 49% Tillis, 49% Cunningham
South Carolina: 54% Graham, 42% Harrison
Texas: 53% Cornyn, 46% Hegar
Virginia: 56% Warner, 43% Republican

Dem pickups: AZ, CO
Rep pickups: AL

D+1. 52-48 R Senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Mid-June update. Disaster situation for the GOP right now.

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Tilt D: 2 <-- Control is decided here (Biden wins)
Tilt R: 2 <-- Control is decided here (Trump wins)
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 41

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

Pickups: AL, AZ, CO, ME, NC

AL: 57.0% Republican, 42.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Gross
AZ: 52.5% Kelly, 45.5% McSally
CO: 53.5% Hickenlooper, 44.0% Gardner
GA: 50.0% Perdue, 48.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 46.0% Greenfield
KS: 53.0% Kobach, 45.5% Bollier / 55.0% Marshall, 43.5% Bollier
KY: 54.0% McConnell, 43.5% McGrath / 54.5% McConnell, 43.0% Booker
ME: 49.0% Gideon, 48.0% Collins
MI: 52.0% Peters, 46.5% James
MN: 53.5% Smith, 44.0% Lewis
MT: 51.0% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NC: 49.5% Cunningham, 47.5% Tillis
SC: 53.0% Graham, 44.5% Harrison
TX: 50.5% Cornyn, 47.5% Democrat

[ElectionsGuy]

Mid-August Update

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 0
Lean R: 5
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 42

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

AK: 52.5% Sullivan, 45.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.5% Kelly, 46.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 44.5% Gardner
GA: 50.5% Perdue, 47.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 52.0% Collins, 48.0% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 46.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 49.0% Gideon, 48.0% Collins
MI: 51.5% Peters, 46.0% James
MN: 52.5% Smith, 45.0% Lewis
MT: 52.0% Daines, 46.0% Bullock
NC: 48.5% Cunningham, 48.0% Tillis
SC: 52.5% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Senate in complete flux right now, it'll likely be decided by North Carolina or Maine. _ This close to moving KS to Safe R, just want something other than a crap PPP interest group sponsored poll to confirm. Could also potentially move Minnesota to Lean D and Montana to Likely R, depending on how the next few months go. Overall, this is still an embarrassing situation for the Republican party, which should have no problem defending any of these states besides Colorado. We'll see how the polls fare in November.

[ElectionsGuy]

This close to moving KS to Safe R, just want something other than a crap PPP interest group sponsored poll to confirm.

Well, a SurveyUSA poll was released today showing Marshall ahead by... 2 points, so you can discount that crap PPP interest group sponsored poll which only showed him ahead by 1 now and move it to Safe R.

Considering that poll only has Trump ahead by 7, I think he'll end up winning by much more than 2. So he's only underperforming Trump by 5, and more likely 3-4 as undecideds skew R and Trump-voting). Also SurveyUSA has not been great (also has Biden up an absurd 34 points in Washington and did that infamous poll in 2016 where he was only up 5 in Kansas). Biden is currently doing 4 points better nationally than Clinton at the end of 2016, but a whole 13 points better here? I don't expect Kansas to trend 9 points Democratic unless there are also similar documented trends in Nebraska which is a very similar state (there isn't). Much more likely, it's polls underestimating red state margins like they've done in the past. I'll keep it at Likely for now though out of caution.

Please do keep ridiculing me until election day about how competitive this race is though. I would love to be proven wrong.

[ElectionsGuy]

September Update

Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 1 <-- Tipping point
Lean R: 4
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 42

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 51

State Predictions (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AK: 52.5% Sullivan, 44.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.5% Kelly, 46.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 47.0% Ossoff
GA-S: 52.0% Collins, 48.0% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 52.0% Ernst, 46.5% Greenfield
KS: 55.0% Marshall, 43.5% Bollier
ME: 49.5% Gideon, 49.0% Collins
MI: 50.5% Peters, 48.0% James
MN: 51.0% Smith, 46.5% Lewis
MT: 52.0% Daines, 46.0% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.0% Republican
NC: 48.5% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 53.0% Graham, 44.0% Harrison
TX: 52.5% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Senate remains a toss-up, however, states like Michigan, Minnesota, and North Carolina look better for Republicans now than they did before, but Arizona still looks rough for McSally (but she's not losing by 17 points). Very sparse polling elsewhere (so I largely have to infer), but the generic ballot has tightened slightly in the aggregate, so 1-2 point improvement for Republicans across the board + some polls have the generic ballot closer than the presidential race.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Senate Prediction 2020

Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Senate Prediction 2020

Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.

My bias (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: D+3.5
AK: D+3.5
AZ: D+0.5
CO: R+2
GA: R+2.5 pre runoff
GA-S: lol*
IA: D+2
KS: D+1
ME: D+6.5
MI: R+1
MN: R+2.5
MT: D+3
NH: R+5.5
NC: D+0.5
SC: D+1.5
TX: D+3

On average: D+1 (not including GA-S)

I overall underestimated Republicans in red states even after all the crap I got for saying AL, MT, KS, SC, and IA weren't going to be close in the end. My biggest error was Maine for Susan Collins, which I think was a shock for everybody the sheer margin. Ticket splitting is alive and well in Maine, as it is in New Hampshire where Shaheen landslided. I expected both Collins and Shaheen to well overperform their states presidential vote, but to the extent they both did was very impressive.

*I knew the Georgia special race was going to be a mess where a runoff was inevitable, so I obviously didn't predict that very well.