If the US hadn't intervened in Irak...

[Silent Hunter]

If Iraq had not been invaded and we'd instead concentrated on doing the job right in Afghanistan, there would be sufficient butterflies that the Arab Spring happening on schedule would have been unlikely.  It may have happened earlier or later, but our presence in Iraq definitely affected when an Arab Spring could have taken place.  it certainly affected the outcomes elsewhere.  The intervention in Libya would have at a minimum taken place without the approval of the Security Council, as I suspect Gaddafi would have remained a useful semi-pariah for the Russians as he would not have taken the steps he did to avoid becoming the next dictator subjected to an Iraqi-style intervention.

I agree - many of the states were the Arab Spring took place were propped up by the US and if it hadn't been for Iraq, the US would have been more popular.

[Silent Hunter]

and Saddam is more of a bad guy than Gaddafi under pretty much any reasonable definition.

Really ? I'm not saying Saddam was significantly better, but the two seem at least comparable in terms of hideousness. Hasn't Gaddafi has done his fair deal of atrocities too ?

Saddam's got a much higher "kill" total.  They both were giant douches and the world is better off without them, but Saddam was at least an order of magnitude (pop POP!) more deadly than Gaddafi.

And Gaddafi has some actual positive achievements to his name - literacy, or the Great Manmade River. Of course, everything averaged out he was pretty bad, but he was better than plenty of people the US has not intervened against yet (Assad and Hamas come to mind first as some targets the US could get rid of with a wrist-flick; bigger baddies like Iran are more difficult).

It would be harder to get rid of Assad than Gaddafi - better military for a start.